July 25th, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

by Xeifrank on Jul 25, 2010 9:10 AM PDT

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 9:00 AM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob
NYN	LAN	R.Dickey vs C.Kershaw	LAN	63.64%	60.96%

Notes: Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw strikeouts minus walks: 5.5
3. C.Kershaw number of pitches: 105.5
4. R.Dickey number of groundballs: 11.5
5. Total bases, Dodgers starting outfielders: 5.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1	51 NYN 7-3	101 NYN 10-1
2 LAN 3-2	52 NYN 7-1	102 LAN 10-5
3 LAN 4-3	53 NYN 7-4	103 LAN 11-4
4 LAN 1-0	54 LAN 8-0	104 NYN 10-5
5 LAN 3-1	55 LAN 8-3	105 LAN 12-3
6 NYN 2-1	56 LAN 7-5	106 NYN 9-7
7 NYN 3-2	57 NYN 7-5	107 LAN 12-2
8 LAN 2-0	58 NYN 6-0	108 LAN 12-1
9 LAN 4-2	59 NYN 7-6	109 NYN 11-4
10 LAN 4-1	60 LAN 9-1	110 NYN 11-3
11 LAN 5-4	61 NYN 8-2	111 NYN 9-8
12 LAN 3-0	62 NYN 8-3	112 NYN 11-1
13 NYN 4-3	63 NYN 8-1	113 NYN 10-6
14 NYN 3-1	64 LAN 9-2	114 LAN 12-0
15 NYN 1-0	65 LAN 9-0	115 NYN 11-2
16 NYN 4-2	66 LAN 8-4	116 LAN 10-6
17 LAN 5-2	67 NYN 8-4	117 NYN 10-0
18 LAN 4-0	68 NYN 7-0	118 LAN 11-5
19 LAN 5-1	69 LAN 8-7	119 NYN 12-2
20 LAN 5-3	70 LAN 8-5	120 NYN 11-5
21 NYN 2-0	71 NYN 8-5	121 LAN 12-4
22 NYN 4-1	72 LAN 9-3	122 LAN 13-3
23 LAN 5-0	73 LAN 10-1	123 NYN 10-7
24 LAN 6-5	74 NYN 9-3	124 LAN 10-9
25 NYN 5-4	75 LAN 9-4	125 LAN 10-7
26 NYN 5-3	76 LAN 8-6	126 LAN 13-1
27 NYN 5-2	77 NYN 8-6	127 NYN 12-1
28 LAN 6-1	78 NYN 9-4	128 LAN 13-2
29 LAN 6-3	79 LAN 10-2	129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 6-2	80 NYN 9-2	130 LAN 13-4
31 NYN 3-0	81 LAN 10-0	131 LAN 14-1
32 NYN 5-1	82 NYN 9-1	132 NYN 12-4
33 LAN 6-0	83 LAN 10-3	133 NYN 12-3
34 LAN 6-4	84 NYN 8-7	134 NYN 10-8
35 NYN 6-3	85 NYN 8-0	135 LAN 11-6
36 NYN 6-2	86 LAN 11-2	136 NYN 13-2
37 NYN 4-0	87 NYN 9-5	137 LAN 13-0
38 NYN 6-5	88 LAN 9-8	138 LAN 12-5
39 NYN 6-4	89 LAN 10-4	139 NYN 11-0
40 LAN 7-2	90 LAN 9-6	140 NYN 11-6
41 LAN 7-1	91 LAN 11-1	141 LAN 11-8
42 LAN 7-6	92 NYN 9-6	142 NYN 12-5
43 NYN 6-1	93 LAN 9-5	143 NYN 10-9
44 LAN 7-3	94 NYN 10-3	144 LAN 14-2
45 LAN 7-0	95 NYN 10-2	145 LAN 12-6
46 LAN 7-4	96 NYN 10-4	146 NYN 13-4
47 NYN 5-0	97 NYN 9-0	147 NYN 13-1
48 NYN 7-2	98 LAN 11-3	148 LAN 14-0
49 LAN 8-1	99 LAN 11-0	149 LAN 11-7
50 LAN 8-2	100 LAN 9-7	150 NYN 13-3

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Current Leaderboard

1. matthewmafa 60
2. Humma Kavula 48
3t. Phil Gurnee 46
3t. Michael White 46
5. kinbote 45
6. MammothDodger 41
7. delias man 37
8. fritts 32
9. bucknellbruin 31
10. Xeifrank 25
11 keithc13 22
12. David Young 21
13. Boulder Dodger 19
14. Jesse S. 13
15t. Ego Crusher! 8
15t. Alex41592 8
15t. Eric Stephen 8
18. lakersdodgersyankees4life 6
19t. DannyDodger 5
19t. dsm9412 5
21t.. joey joe 3
22. G.Scott 2
= Kids Table =
23t. underdog 1
23t. dolger14 1

Most recent point scorers in bold

by Xeifrank on Jul 25, 2010 9:13 AM PDT reply actions

Over/Under Question

Sample Answer: UOOUU

by Xeifrank on Jul 25, 2010 9:14 AM PDT reply actions

44 LAN 7-3

OOOUO

Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.

by G.Scott on Jul 25, 2010 9:28 AM PDT reply actions

18 LAN 4-0

UOOUO

by MammothDodger on Jul 25, 2010 9:30 AM PDT reply actions

35 NYN 6-3

OOOUU

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jul 25, 2010 10:21 AM PDT reply actions

I didn’t look at the O/U questions :)

by Eric Stephen on Jul 25, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions

# 50 LAN 8 - 2

OOOUO

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jul 25, 2010 10:44 AM PDT reply actions

by nolander on Jul 25, 2010 11:05 AM PDT reply actions

#40 LAN 7-2

OOOUO

Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?

by bucknellbruin on Jul 25, 2010 11:18 AM PDT reply actions

#33

6-0 LA

UUOUO

by kinbote on Jul 25, 2010 11:22 AM PDT reply actions

#29

6-3 LAN

OUOUO

by keithc13 on Jul 25, 2010 11:35 AM PDT reply actions

86 la11-2

@soyboquense

by delias man on Jul 25, 2010 12:02 PM PDT reply actions

55 LAN 8-3

OOOOO

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jul 25, 2010 1:05 PM PDT reply actions

#4 LAN 1-0, UUOUU

Nobody got the correct score.
Michael White nailed the over/under (congrats!, 10 points)
5-3-1 points go to…

5 – Jesse S. #5 LAN 3-1
3 – Eric “Movin On Up” Stephen, #10 LAN 4-1
1 – Xeifrank, #17 LAN 5-2

by Xeifrank on Jul 25, 2010 4:42 PM PDT reply actions

I think the winner was your simulator

Number Four most likely wins. Nice

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jul 25, 2010 6:00 PM PDT reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Pos	No	Player	2012 Salary
C	17	Ellis	$490,000
1B	7	Loney	$6,375,000
2B	37	Herrera	$375,082
3B	6	Hairston	$2,250,000
SS	9	Gordon	$485,000
LF	23	Abreu	$401,311
CF	10	Gwynn	$850,000
RF	16	Ethier	$10,950,000

OF/1B	33	Van Slyke	$388,197
2B/3B	3	Kennedy	$800,000
OF/1B	30	Sands	$375,175
IF	13	DeJesus	$448,992
C	18	Treanor	$850,000

SP	22	Kershaw	$6,000,000
SP	58	Billingsley	$9,000,000
SP	29	Lilly	$12,000,000
SP	44	Harang	$3,000,000
SP	35	Capuano	$3,000,000

CL	74	Jansen	$491,000
RHP	52	Lindblom	$483,000
RHP	51	Belisario	$414,426
RHP	54	Guerra	$488,000
RHP	28	Wright	$900,000
LHP	57	Elbert	$488,500
RHP	60	Coffey	$1,000,000

DL	27	Kemp	$10,000,000
DL	21	Rivera	$4,000,000
DL	12	Sellers	$481,000
DL	5	Uribe	$8,000,000
DL	55	Guerrier	$4,750,000
DL	14	Ellis	$2,500,000
60DL	36	Hawksworth	$495,000
60DL	41	De La Rosa	$485,000

AA	50	Eovaldi	$7,885
AAA	56	Antonini	$7,869

		Manny	$8,087,432	deferred
		Andruw	$3,375,000	deferred
		Pierre	$3,050,000	deferred
		Furcal	$3,000,000	deferred
		Kuroda	$2,000,000	deferred
		Garland	$1,500,000	option buyout
		Blake	$1,250,000	option buyout
DFA	66	MacDougal	$650,000

Totals			$115,942,869
For more detailed information, click here.
Current 40-man roster count: 42 (incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

Network Bar

True Blue LA -

July 25th, Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation

Do you like this story?

Comments

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Secondary Sidebar

Search

User Tools

FanPosts

Recommended FanPosts

Recent FanPosts

Recent Posts

In Association With

Baseball Nation Recent Stories

Vox Media Hot Topics

Community Masthead

Manager

Editors