## July 27th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Mets and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:00 PM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob LAN SD C.Billingsley vs J.Garland SD 52.61% 46.77%

Notes:    The first of three high leverage games against the division leading Padres.  This is a golden opportunity for the Dodgers to strike twelve on the Padres fantasy season.  Vegas has the miracle Padres as slight favorites, while the simulator is taking a more logical approach and making the Dodgers, behind the pitching of Chad Billingsley a slight favorite.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of pitches: 106.5
3. C.Billingsley strikeouts minus Padres total runs: 4.5
4. Padres bullpen hits allowed: 2.5
5. A.Ethier plus Matt Kemp total bases: 3.5

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

 1 SD 3-2 51 SD 6-0 101 LAN 11-3 2 SD 2-1 52 LAN 7-5 102 LAN 11-0 3 LAN 2-1 53 SD 7-1 103 SD 11-2 4 LAN 3-2 54 SD 7-3 104 SD 10-0 5 SD 4-3 55 SD 7-4 105 LAN 11-4 6 LAN 3-1 56 LAN 8-3 106 SD 11-1 7 SD 1-0 57 LAN 8-0 107 SD 9-7 8 LAN 4-3 58 LAN 8-4 108 SD 11-3 9 LAN 4-2 59 LAN 7-6 109 LAN 12-1 10 LAN 1-0 60 SD 7-5 110 SD 10-5 11 SD 3-1 61 LAN 9-2 111 LAN 9-8 12 LAN 2-0 62 LAN 9-1 112 LAN 10-6 13 LAN 4-1 63 LAN 8-5 113 LAN 12-2 14 SD 4-2 64 SD 8-2 114 LAN 10-7 15 SD 5-4 65 SD 7-0 115 SD 11-4 16 LAN 3-0 66 SD 8-3 116 LAN 12-4 17 SD 2-0 67 SD 8-1 117 LAN 11-5 18 LAN 5-1 68 LAN 9-3 118 LAN 12-3 19 LAN 5-2 69 LAN 9-4 119 LAN 11-6 20 LAN 4-0 70 SD 8-7 120 SD 11-5 21 SD 4-1 71 LAN 9-0 121 SD 10-6 22 LAN 5-3 72 LAN 8-6 122 SD 12-1 23 LAN 5-4 73 SD 8-4 123 SD 10-7 24 SD 3-0 74 SD 8-5 124 LAN 10-8 25 SD 5-3 75 LAN 10-2 125 SD 12-3 26 SD 5-2 76 SD 8-0 126 LAN 12-0 27 LAN 5-0 77 LAN 10-1 127 SD 11-0 28 LAN 6-1 78 SD 9-2 128 SD 12-2 29 LAN 6-2 79 SD 9-1 129 SD 12-4 30 SD 6-5 80 SD 9-3 130 LAN 13-2 31 SD 5-1 81 LAN 8-7 131 SD 10-9 32 LAN 6-3 82 SD 8-6 132 LAN 13-4 33 SD 4-0 83 LAN 9-5 133 LAN 13-1 34 LAN 6-4 84 SD 9-4 134 LAN 10-9 35 SD 6-2 85 LAN 10-3 135 LAN 12-5 36 LAN 6-5 86 LAN 10-0 136 SD 13-1 37 SD 6-3 87 LAN 10-4 137 SD 12-5 38 LAN 6-0 88 SD 10-2 138 SD 10-8 39 LAN 7-2 89 SD 9-0 139 LAN 13-3 40 SD 6-4 90 SD 10-3 140 SD 11-6 41 LAN 7-1 91 LAN 9-6 141 SD 13-2 42 LAN 7-3 92 SD 9-5 142 SD 13-3 43 SD 5-0 93 SD 10-1 143 SD 11-7 44 SD 6-1 94 SD 9-8 144 LAN 11-8 45 LAN 7-0 95 LAN 11-2 145 SD 12-0 46 LAN 7-4 96 LAN 11-1 146 LAN 13-0 47 SD 7-2 97 SD 9-6 147 LAN 11-7 48 LAN 8-1 98 LAN 9-7 148 LAN 14-1 49 SD 7-6 99 SD 10-4 149 LAN 12-6 50 LAN 8-2 100 LAN 10-5 150 LAN 14-0

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