July 28th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 28, 2010 7:45 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 7:30 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | SD | H.Kuroda vs C.Richard | SD | 51.92% | 52.54% |
Notes: The Dodgers took the first game of the "high leverage" series, increasing their chances of winning the NL West from 21% to 24%, while the Padres saw their chances drop from 50% to 44%. The Giants also saw their chances climb from 25% to 29% with their win against Florida. As far as today's Dodgers game, both Vegas and the simulator are in good agreement as to the chances of a Dodgers victory. They both have this game as pretty much a tossup with a very slight edge given to the Padres. This will be Hiroki Kuroda's first start against the Padres this season, and first since September 6, 2009. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda strikeouts: 5.5
3. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 98.5
4. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 3.5
5. C.Richard total batters faced: 27.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 SD 3-2 | 51 SD 6-0 | 101 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 2 SD 2-1 | 52 LAN 7-5 | 102 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 3 LAN 2-1 | 53 SD 7-1 | 103 SD 11-2 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 SD 7-3 | 104 SD 10-0 | ||
| 5 SD 4-3 | 55 SD 7-4 | 105 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 6 LAN 3-1 | 56 LAN 8-3 | 106 SD 11-1 | ||
| 7 SD 1-0 | 57 LAN 8-0 | 107 SD 9-7 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-3 | 58 LAN 8-4 | 108 SD 11-3 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 LAN 7-6 | 109 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 10 LAN 1-0 | 60 SD 7-5 | 110 SD 10-5 | ||
| 11 SD 3-1 | 61 LAN 9-2 | 111 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 12 LAN 2-0 | 62 LAN 9-1 | 112 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-1 | 63 LAN 8-5 | 113 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 14 SD 4-2 | 64 SD 8-2 | 114 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 15 SD 5-4 | 65 SD 7-0 | 115 SD 11-4 | ||
| 16 LAN 3-0 | 66 SD 8-3 | 116 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 17 SD 2-0 | 67 SD 8-1 | 117 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-1 | 68 LAN 9-3 | 118 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 LAN 9-4 | 119 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 20 LAN 4-0 | 70 SD 8-7 | 120 SD 11-5 | ||
| 21 SD 4-1 | 71 LAN 9-0 | 121 SD 10-6 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-3 | 72 LAN 8-6 | 122 SD 12-1 | ||
| 23 LAN 5-4 | 73 SD 8-4 | 123 SD 10-7 | ||
| 24 SD 3-0 | 74 SD 8-5 | 124 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 25 SD 5-3 | 75 LAN 10-2 | 125 SD 12-3 | ||
| 26 SD 5-2 | 76 SD 8-0 | 126 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-0 | 77 LAN 10-1 | 127 SD 11-0 | ||
| 28 LAN 6-1 | 78 SD 9-2 | 128 SD 12-2 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-2 | 79 SD 9-1 | 129 SD 12-4 | ||
| 30 SD 6-5 | 80 SD 9-3 | 130 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 31 SD 5-1 | 81 LAN 8-7 | 131 SD 10-9 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-3 | 82 SD 8-6 | 132 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 33 SD 4-0 | 83 LAN 9-5 | 133 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-4 | 84 SD 9-4 | 134 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 35 SD 6-2 | 85 LAN 10-3 | 135 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-5 | 86 LAN 10-0 | 136 SD 13-1 | ||
| 37 SD 6-3 | 87 LAN 10-4 | 137 SD 12-5 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-0 | 88 SD 10-2 | 138 SD 10-8 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-2 | 89 SD 9-0 | 139 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 40 SD 6-4 | 90 SD 10-3 | 140 SD 11-6 | ||
| 41 LAN 7-1 | 91 LAN 9-6 | 141 SD 13-2 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-3 | 92 SD 9-5 | 142 SD 13-3 | ||
| 43 SD 5-0 | 93 SD 10-1 | 143 SD 11-7 | ||
| 44 SD 6-1 | 94 SD 9-8 | 144 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-0 | 95 LAN 11-2 | 145 SD 12-0 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-4 | 96 LAN 11-1 | 146 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 47 SD 7-2 | 97 SD 9-6 | 147 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 48 LAN 8-1 | 98 LAN 9-7 | 148 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 49 SD 7-6 | 99 SD 10-4 | 149 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 50 LAN 8-2 | 100 LAN 10-5 | 150 LAN 14-0 |
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Over/Under Question
Brief recap on rules. Guess the game score and the five over/under questions. Game score guesses must be unique but over/under guesses do not. If you guess the correct game score, you get the number of points equivalent to where the game score was ranked on the table above. If nobody guesses the game score correctly, then 5 points is awarded to the person who came closest to the correct score ranking in the table (3 points for 2nd closest and 1 point for third closest). Also, you must pick the correct winning team to get any of the 5-3-1 points. If the score falls outside of the Top 150 scores, then nobody gets any 5-3-1 points. If you guess the over/under question(s) correctly, you get 10 points. Points may or may not be redeemable at your local Chuckie Cheese.
1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda strikeouts: 5.5
3. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 98.5
4. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 3.5
5. C.Richard total batters faced: 27.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
hey, you copied my prediction:)
gotta check more carefully next time.
Geez, we even have the same o/u
by 68elcamino427 on Jul 28, 2010 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions
#4 LAN 3-2
UUOUU
Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
#61 LAN 9-2
OUUOO
I’m going contrarian with the over/under selection and the high scoring game. In other words I am throwing darts (more than usual).
#51 SD 6 - 0
1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda strikeouts: 5.5
3. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 98.5
4. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 3.5
5. C.Richard total batters faced: 27.5
UOOOO
#44 SD 6-1, OUUOU
Nobody got the correct score and nobody got the over/under. The 5-3-1 points go to…
5 – meercathohn (Phil Gurnee), #51 SD 6-0
5- Humma Kavula, #37 SD 6-3
1 – matthewmafa, #26 SD 5-2
The rich get richer.
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