FanPost

July 28th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 7:30 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SD H.Kuroda vs C.Richard SD 51.92% 52.54%

 

Notes:    The Dodgers took the first game of the "high leverage" series, increasing their chances of winning the NL West from 21% to 24%, while the Padres saw their chances drop from 50% to 44%.  The Giants also saw their chances climb from 25% to 29% with their win against Florida.  As far as today's Dodgers game, both Vegas and the simulator are in good agreement as to the chances of a Dodgers victory.  They both have this game as pretty much a tossup with a very slight edge given to the Padres.  This will be Hiroki Kuroda's first start against the Padres this season, and first since September 6, 2009.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda strikeouts: 5.5
3. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 98.5
4. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 3.5
5. C.Richard total batters faced: 27.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 3-2   51 SD 6-0   101 LAN 11-3
2 SD 2-1   52 LAN 7-5   102 LAN 11-0
3 LAN 2-1   53 SD 7-1   103 SD 11-2
4 LAN 3-2   54 SD 7-3   104 SD 10-0
5 SD 4-3   55 SD 7-4   105 LAN 11-4
6 LAN 3-1   56 LAN 8-3   106 SD 11-1
7 SD 1-0   57 LAN 8-0   107 SD 9-7
8 LAN 4-3   58 LAN 8-4   108 SD 11-3
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 7-6   109 LAN 12-1
10 LAN 1-0   60 SD 7-5   110 SD 10-5
11 SD 3-1   61 LAN 9-2   111 LAN 9-8
12 LAN 2-0   62 LAN 9-1   112 LAN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 LAN 12-2
14 SD 4-2   64 SD 8-2   114 LAN 10-7
15 SD 5-4   65 SD 7-0   115 SD 11-4
16 LAN 3-0   66 SD 8-3   116 LAN 12-4
17 SD 2-0   67 SD 8-1   117 LAN 11-5
18 LAN 5-1   68 LAN 9-3   118 LAN 12-3
19 LAN 5-2   69 LAN 9-4   119 LAN 11-6
20 LAN 4-0   70 SD 8-7   120 SD 11-5
21 SD 4-1   71 LAN 9-0   121 SD 10-6
22 LAN 5-3   72 LAN 8-6   122 SD 12-1
23 LAN 5-4   73 SD 8-4   123 SD 10-7
24 SD 3-0   74 SD 8-5   124 LAN 10-8
25 SD 5-3   75 LAN 10-2   125 SD 12-3
26 SD 5-2   76 SD 8-0   126 LAN 12-0
27 LAN 5-0   77 LAN 10-1   127 SD 11-0
28 LAN 6-1   78 SD 9-2   128 SD 12-2
29 LAN 6-2   79 SD 9-1   129 SD 12-4
30 SD 6-5   80 SD 9-3   130 LAN 13-2
31 SD 5-1   81 LAN 8-7   131 SD 10-9
32 LAN 6-3   82 SD 8-6   132 LAN 13-4
33 SD 4-0   83 LAN 9-5   133 LAN 13-1
34 LAN 6-4   84 SD 9-4   134 LAN 10-9
35 SD 6-2   85 LAN 10-3   135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 6-5   86 LAN 10-0   136 SD 13-1
37 SD 6-3   87 LAN 10-4   137 SD 12-5
38 LAN 6-0   88 SD 10-2   138 SD 10-8
39 LAN 7-2   89 SD 9-0   139 LAN 13-3
40 SD 6-4   90 SD 10-3   140 SD 11-6
41 LAN 7-1   91 LAN 9-6   141 SD 13-2
42 LAN 7-3   92 SD 9-5   142 SD 13-3
43 SD 5-0   93 SD 10-1   143 SD 11-7
44 SD 6-1   94 SD 9-8   144 LAN 11-8
45 LAN 7-0   95 LAN 11-2   145 SD 12-0
46 LAN 7-4   96 LAN 11-1   146 LAN 13-0
47 SD 7-2   97 SD 9-6   147 LAN 11-7
48 LAN 8-1   98 LAN 9-7   148 LAN 14-1
49 SD 7-6   99 SD 10-4   149 LAN 12-6
50 LAN 8-2   100 LAN 10-5   150 LAN 14-0



X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker