FanPost

July 29th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 10:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SD V.Padilla vs M.Latos SD 56.90% 58.45%

 

Notes:    Wednesday's loss really hurt as the Dodgers dropped a game in the NL West standings to both the Padres and Giants, as well as the Phillies, Reds and Cardinals in a possible wild-card hunt.  Both Vegas and the simulator have the Padres as moderate favorites to win Thursday's game.  Even though there is still plenty of season left, there is no denying that this is a huge game for the Dodgers.  Get your "huge game" game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 5.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 93.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 6.5
4. M.Latos number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. A.Gonzalez total bases: 2.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1   51 LAN 7-1   101 LAN 10-5
2 SD 3-2   52 SD 7-6   102 LAN 11-2
3 SD 1-0   53 LAN 7-4   103 SD 11-0
4 LAN 2-1   54 SD 8-2   104 LAN 10-0
5 SD 4-3   55 SD 8-0   105 SD 9-8
6 LAN 3-2   56 LAN 7-5   106 SD 9-7
7 SD 3-1   57 LAN 8-2   107 LAN 9-8
8 SD 2-0   58 SD 8-3   108 SD 12-0
9 LAN 3-1   59 SD 7-5   109 SD 12-1
10 LAN 1-0   60 LAN 8-3   110 LAN 11-4
11 SD 4-2   61 LAN 8-1   111 SD 12-3
12 SD 3-0   62 LAN 7-0   112 SD 11-4
13 SD 4-1   63 SD 9-1   113 LAN 10-6
14 LAN 4-3   64 LAN 7-6   114 LAN 11-3
15 LAN 4-2   65 SD 9-2   115 SD 12-2
16 LAN 2-0   66 LAN 8-4   116 LAN 11-5
17 SD 5-4   67 SD 8-4   117 LAN 11-1
18 SD 4-0   68 SD 9-0   118 SD 13-2
19 SD 5-2   69 SD 9-3   119 SD 10-6
20 LAN 4-1   70 LAN 9-2   120 SD 11-5
21 SD 5-1   71 LAN 8-0   121 LAN 11-0
22 LAN 3-0   72 LAN 8-5   122 SD 12-4
23 SD 5-3   73 SD 8-5   123 SD 10-7
24 LAN 5-3   74 SD 8-7   124 SD 13-0
25 LAN 5-2   75 SD 10-1   125 LAN 10-7
26 LAN 5-4   76 LAN 9-3   126 SD 13-3
27 SD 5-0   77 LAN 9-1   127 SD 11-6
28 LAN 5-1   78 LAN 8-6   128 LAN 11-6
29 SD 6-1   79 SD 10-2   129 SD 13-1
30 SD 6-2   80 SD 8-6   130 LAN 12-1
31 SD 6-3   81 SD 9-4   131 LAN 10-9
32 LAN 4-0   82 LAN 9-4   132 SD 10-8
33 SD 6-5   83 SD 10-3   133 LAN 12-3
34 SD 6-0   84 SD 10-0   134 LAN 12-4
35 LAN 6-2   85 SD 11-2   135 LAN 12-2
36 LAN 6-3   86 LAN 8-7   136 LAN 12-0
37 SD 6-4   87 LAN 9-5   137 SD 14-3
38 LAN 6-1   88 SD 10-4   138 LAN 11-7
39 LAN 6-4   89 LAN 9-0   139 SD 14-2
40 SD 7-1   90 SD 11-1   140 LAN 10-8
41 SD 7-2   91 LAN 10-3   141 SD 12-5
42 LAN 5-0   92 SD 9-5   142 LAN 13-2
43 LAN 6-5   93 LAN 10-2   143 SD 14-1
44 SD 7-0   94 SD 9-6   144 LAN 12-5
45 LAN 7-2   95 LAN 9-6   145 SD 10-9
46 LAN 7-3   96 LAN 10-1   146 SD 12-6
47 SD 8-1   97 SD 10-5   147 SD 11-7
48 SD 7-3   98 LAN 10-4   148 SD 14-0
49 LAN 6-0   99 SD 11-3   149 LAN 13-3
50 SD 7-4   100 LAN 9-7   150 LAN 13-5
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