July 29th, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 28, 2010 11:16 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 10:45 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | SD | V.Padilla vs M.Latos | SD | 56.90% | 58.45% |
Notes: Wednesday's loss really hurt as the Dodgers dropped a game in the NL West standings to both the Padres and Giants, as well as the Phillies, Reds and Cardinals in a possible wild-card hunt. Both Vegas and the simulator have the Padres as moderate favorites to win Thursday's game. Even though there is still plenty of season left, there is no denying that this is a huge game for the Dodgers. Get your "huge game" game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored in game: 5.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 93.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 6.5
4. M.Latos number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. A.Gonzalez total bases: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 SD 2-1 | 51 LAN 7-1 | 101 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 2 SD 3-2 | 52 SD 7-6 | 102 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 3 SD 1-0 | 53 LAN 7-4 | 103 SD 11-0 | ||
| 4 LAN 2-1 | 54 SD 8-2 | 104 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 5 SD 4-3 | 55 SD 8-0 | 105 SD 9-8 | ||
| 6 LAN 3-2 | 56 LAN 7-5 | 106 SD 9-7 | ||
| 7 SD 3-1 | 57 LAN 8-2 | 107 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 8 SD 2-0 | 58 SD 8-3 | 108 SD 12-0 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 SD 7-5 | 109 SD 12-1 | ||
| 10 LAN 1-0 | 60 LAN 8-3 | 110 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 11 SD 4-2 | 61 LAN 8-1 | 111 SD 12-3 | ||
| 12 SD 3-0 | 62 LAN 7-0 | 112 SD 11-4 | ||
| 13 SD 4-1 | 63 SD 9-1 | 113 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-3 | 64 LAN 7-6 | 114 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 15 LAN 4-2 | 65 SD 9-2 | 115 SD 12-2 | ||
| 16 LAN 2-0 | 66 LAN 8-4 | 116 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 17 SD 5-4 | 67 SD 8-4 | 117 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 18 SD 4-0 | 68 SD 9-0 | 118 SD 13-2 | ||
| 19 SD 5-2 | 69 SD 9-3 | 119 SD 10-6 | ||
| 20 LAN 4-1 | 70 LAN 9-2 | 120 SD 11-5 | ||
| 21 SD 5-1 | 71 LAN 8-0 | 121 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 22 LAN 3-0 | 72 LAN 8-5 | 122 SD 12-4 | ||
| 23 SD 5-3 | 73 SD 8-5 | 123 SD 10-7 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-3 | 74 SD 8-7 | 124 SD 13-0 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-2 | 75 SD 10-1 | 125 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 26 LAN 5-4 | 76 LAN 9-3 | 126 SD 13-3 | ||
| 27 SD 5-0 | 77 LAN 9-1 | 127 SD 11-6 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-1 | 78 LAN 8-6 | 128 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 29 SD 6-1 | 79 SD 10-2 | 129 SD 13-1 | ||
| 30 SD 6-2 | 80 SD 8-6 | 130 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 31 SD 6-3 | 81 SD 9-4 | 131 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 32 LAN 4-0 | 82 LAN 9-4 | 132 SD 10-8 | ||
| 33 SD 6-5 | 83 SD 10-3 | 133 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 34 SD 6-0 | 84 SD 10-0 | 134 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-2 | 85 SD 11-2 | 135 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-3 | 86 LAN 8-7 | 136 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 37 SD 6-4 | 87 LAN 9-5 | 137 SD 14-3 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-1 | 88 SD 10-4 | 138 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-4 | 89 LAN 9-0 | 139 SD 14-2 | ||
| 40 SD 7-1 | 90 SD 11-1 | 140 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 41 SD 7-2 | 91 LAN 10-3 | 141 SD 12-5 | ||
| 42 LAN 5-0 | 92 SD 9-5 | 142 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 43 LAN 6-5 | 93 LAN 10-2 | 143 SD 14-1 | ||
| 44 SD 7-0 | 94 SD 9-6 | 144 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-2 | 95 LAN 9-6 | 145 SD 10-9 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-3 | 96 LAN 10-1 | 146 SD 12-6 | ||
| 47 SD 8-1 | 97 SD 10-5 | 147 SD 11-7 | ||
| 48 SD 7-3 | 98 LAN 10-4 | 148 SD 14-0 | ||
| 49 LAN 6-0 | 99 SD 11-3 | 149 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 50 SD 7-4 | 100 LAN 9-7 | 150 LAN 13-5 |
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Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
1. Total runs scored in game: 5.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 93.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 6.5
4. M.Latos number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. A.Gonzalez total bases: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Correct answer is good for 10 points.
Game scores need to be unique guesses, over/unders do not.
#16 LAN 2-0
Let’s go back to what works
UOUOU
Kenley Jansen: A reason for Dodger fans not to hate everything about Curacao
# 35
Total runs scored in game: 5.5 – over
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 93.5 – under
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 6.5 – over
4. M.Latos number of strikeouts: 6.5 – under
5. A.Gonzalez total bases: 2.5 – over
score
#151 0-0 tie
UOUUU
Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
#2 SD 3-2
UOUUU
Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you'll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are a slob.
# 13 SAN 4 -1
1. Total runs scored in game: 5.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 93.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 6.5
4. M.Latos number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. A.Gonzalez total bases: 2.5
OOUOO
I’m hedging my over
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Since the extra points go to whoever was closest based on the chart ie: #20 was the winner so #19 gets points, it goes to the closest who also picked the correct team to win? Or just to whoever was closest? Just trying to figure this thing out.
I like Cetera.
Points go to the closest, based on the chart, among the players who correctly picked the winner.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Jul 29, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
#2 SD 3-2, UUUOU
G.Scott got the score correct. Two points. Woohoo!
Nobody got the over/under correct.
There are no proximity points. G.Scott gets all the riches.
i correct score winner should get like minimum ten points
since its so hard to do
first come first serve
2 points doesnt do nothing… they need at least 5 or ten or something
by matthewmafa on Jul 29, 2010 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
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