FanPost

Xeifrank Independence Day Dodgers vs. D-Backs Simulation

Editor's note: The following is from Xeifrank, who has retired to a secluded beach community to stash some of his massive gambling winnings:

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN ARI C.Billingsley vs D.Haren LAN 46.51% 50.30%

 

Notes:  I'm out of town, so thanks to Eric for posting this simulation that was run late Friday night.  The simulator has this game as a coin flip.  Heads or tails?  Get your game score guesses in.

Editor's Note: Vegas shows Arizona as the favorite.

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 ARI 3-2   51 LAN 7-6   101 LAN 10-0
2 ARI 4-3   52 ARI 7-1   102 ARI 11-2
3 ARI 2-1   53 LAN 8-2   103 LAN 11-4
4 LAN 3-2   54 ARI 7-5   104 LAN 11-1
5 LAN 4-3   55 LAN 6-0   105 ARI 11-1
6 LAN 2-1   56 ARI 6-0   106 ARI 9-7
7 ARI 5-4   57 LAN 8-4   107 ARI 11-3
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-1   108 LAN 10-6
9 LAN 3-1   59 ARI 8-3   109 ARI 11-4
10 ARI 4-2   60 LAN 8-5   110 LAN 10-7
11 ARI 3-1   61 ARI 8-2   111 LAN 12-3
12 LAN 5-4   62 ARI 8-4   112 ARI 10-5
13 LAN 5-3   63 LAN 9-2   113 LAN 12-2
14 LAN 4-1   64 LAN 9-4   114 LAN 11-5
15 LAN 5-2   65 LAN 7-0   115 LAN 11-0
16 ARI 4-1   66 ARI 8-1   116 ARI 10-6
17 ARI 5-3   67 ARI 8-5   117 ARI 10-0
18 ARI 5-2   68 LAN 9-3   118 LAN 12-4
19 ARI 1-0   69 ARI 8-7   119 ARI 12-3
20 ARI 6-5   70 ARI 7-0   120 LAN 11-6
21 LAN 6-3   71 LAN 8-6   121 LAN 10-8
22 LAN 2-0   72 ARI 9-3   122 LAN 12-1
23 ARI 2-0   73 LAN 9-1   123 ARI 10-9
24 LAN 5-1   74 ARI 9-2   124 ARI 12-2
25 LAN 1-0   75 LAN 8-0   125 ARI 11-5
26 LAN 6-4   76 LAN 8-7   126 ARI 10-7
27 ARI 3-0   77 ARI 8-6   127 ARI 12-4
28 ARI 6-3   78 LAN 10-3   128 ARI 12-1
29 LAN 3-0   79 LAN 9-5   129 ARI 10-8
30 ARI 5-1   80 ARI 9-1   130 LAN 12-5
31 LAN 6-2   81 LAN 10-2   131 LAN 13-2
32 ARI 6-4   82 ARI 9-4   132 ARI 11-0
33 LAN 6-5   83 LAN 9-6   133 ARI 11-6
34 ARI 6-2   84 LAN 9-0   134 ARI 13-2
35 LAN 4-0   85 LAN 10-1   135 LAN 12-6
36 LAN 6-1   86 ARI 8-0   136 LAN 13-3
37 ARI 4-0   87 ARI 10-3   137 LAN 13-5
38 ARI 6-1   88 ARI 9-5   138 LAN 11-7
39 LAN 7-3   89 LAN 10-5   139 LAN 11-8
40 LAN 7-4   90 LAN 10-4   140 LAN 10-9
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 9-7   141 LAN 13-4
42 ARI 7-6   92 ARI 10-1   142 ARI 12-5
43 LAN 5-0   93 LAN 11-2   143 LAN 13-1
44 ARI 7-2   94 ARI 10-2   144 ARI 11-7
45 ARI 5-0   95 ARI 9-8   145 ARI 13-4
46 ARI 7-4   96 LAN 11-3   146 ARI 12-0
47 LAN 7-5   97 ARI 9-6   147 LAN 12-0
48 LAN 7-1   98 ARI 10-4   148 ARI 13-5
49 ARI 7-3   99 ARI 9-0   149 ARI 12-6
50 LAN 8-3   100 LAN 9-8   150 LAN 12-8
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