FanPost

July 30th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 11:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SF C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum SF 63.90% 67.94%

 

Notes:    Let's face it the Dodgers must win atleast two out of three of these games in San Francisco and it won't be an easy task to beat the red-hot Giants with their team both hitting and pitching well.  It doesn't help that the Dodgers send to the mound their #12 starter in Carlos Mysterious.  Vegas has the Giants as a solid favorite to win the opening game of the series and the simulator has even more confidence of a Giants victory.  Let's hope that we catch Lincecum on a day when he has "the munchies".  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Monasterios number of pitches: 54.5
3. T.Lincecum number of strikeouts: 6.5
4. Dodgers number of relief pitchers used: 3.5
5. Giants hits minus Dodgers runs: 5.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 LAN 7-5   101 LAN 10-3
2 SF 4-3   52 SF 8-4   102 LAN 10-4
3 SF 2-1   53 LAN 7-4   103 SF 11-5
4 SF 3-1   54 LAN 3-0   104 LAN 10-2
5 SF 4-2   55 LAN 7-6   105 SF 10-6
6 SF 5-4   56 LAN 7-3   106 SF 12-3
7 SF 4-1   57 SF 9-3   107 LAN 9-8
8 SF 5-2   58 SF 8-5   108 LAN 10-5
9 LAN 3-2   59 SF 9-0   109 SF 12-0
10 LAN 4-3   60 SF 8-7   110 SF 12-4
11 SF 3-0   61 LAN 6-1   111 SF 10-9
12 SF 5-1   62 LAN 7-2   112 LAN 10-6
13 LAN 2-1   63 SF 10-1   113 LAN 10-7
14 SF 5-3   64 SF 9-4   114 LAN 8-0
15 SF 2-0   65 LAN 4-0   115 SF 13-3
16 SF 4-0   66 LAN 8-4   116 SF 13-2
17 SF 1-0   67 LAN 8-3   117 LAN 11-3
18 SF 6-5   68 SF 10-2   118 SF 13-1
19 SF 6-3   69 SF 8-6   119 LAN 11-2
20 SF 6-2   70 SF 10-3   120 SF 11-6
21 SF 6-1   71 LAN 8-5   121 LAN 11-4
22 LAN 4-2   72 SF 10-0   122 SF 13-0
23 LAN 5-4   73 SF 9-5   123 LAN 10-1
24 SF 5-0   74 LAN 7-1   124 SF 10-7
25 LAN 3-1   75 LAN 8-7   125 SF 12-5
26 LAN 5-3   76 LAN 8-6   126 LAN 10-8
27 SF 7-2   77 LAN 8-2   127 LAN 11-5
28 SF 6-0   78 SF 10-4   128 LAN 9-0
29 SF 6-4   79 SF 11-2   129 SF 10-8
30 SF 7-1   80 SF 9-6   130 LAN 11-1
31 SF 7-3   81 LAN 5-0   131 SF 14-2
32 LAN 5-2   82 SF 11-1   132 SF 12-6
33 SF 7-0   83 SF 9-8   133 LAN 11-6
34 SF 7-4   84 LAN 9-3   134 SF 13-4
35 SF 7-6   85 LAN 8-1   135 SF 11-7
36 LAN 4-1   86 LAN 9-4   136 LAN 12-3
37 SF 8-2   87 SF 11-3   137 SF 11-8
38 LAN 1-0   88 LAN 6-0   138 LAN 11-7
39 LAN 6-4   89 LAN 9-5   139 SF 14-1
40 LAN 6-3   90 SF 11-4   140 LAN 12-4
41 LAN 6-5   91 SF 11-0   141 LAN 11-8
42 SF 8-1   92 LAN 9-6   142 LAN 12-5
43 LAN 2-0   93 LAN 9-2   143 LAN 10-9
44 SF 8-3   94 LAN 9-7   144 SF 14-3
45 SF 8-0   95 SF 12-2   145 SF 13-5
46 LAN 6-2   96 SF 10-5   146 SF 14-4
47 SF 7-5   97 LAN 7-0   147 LAN 12-6
48 SF 9-1   98 SF 9-7   148 SF 15-2
49 LAN 5-1   99 SF 12-1   149 LAN 12-2
50 SF 9-2   100 LAN 9-1   150 SF 14-0
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