Andre Ethier Is Our J.A. Happ
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 1:21 PM PDT
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PrintOver the last month Dodger fans have been thinking about what we’d give up for one of the elite pitchers that have been shopped around this month. Jerry Sands! Chris Withrow! Everyone except Jerry Sands and Chris Withrow! Meanwhile Astros fans fantasized about the load of prospects they’d receive in return for their star player, and the rings that they’d lead them to in the future…then they found out they were getting J.A. Happ.
The type of people that post on baseball blogs had the same reaction. How the hell do you trade Roy Oswalt for J.A. Happ? His stuff sucks, he’s got an xFIP a run and a half over his ERA, and once he loses his .202 BABIP with runners on, he’s gonna get exposed for the mediocre pitcher he is. Why would the Astros take him over [prospect we kind of like]? Because Happ has one think Prospect We Kind of Like doesn’t have, a reputation way beyond his abilities.
If you ask the average fan, J.A. Happ is one of the best young pitchers in the game. With a lower career ERA than Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Jon Lester, to go with a winning percentage over .700, Happ looks like a future star to a lot of people. While conspiracy theories have been thrown around regarding the trade, the simplest explanation is that Happ’s superficial goodness made him extremely valuable. Whether this is because it would be easy to market to the fans, or because Ed Wade is really bad at his job is up to you. If the Dodgers want to steal these elite players like the Phillies and Angels have, they need some good schmuck bait.
That shmuck bait could very well be Andre Ethier. Now that Manny has been branded a very bad man, Ethier has become the face of the Dodger franchise, and is recognized as one of the elite outfielders in the National League. Fans around the league went to the All Star ballots and decided they’d rather see Ethier start in the NL outfield than All Star stalwarts like Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday. Ethier’s dingers and general clutchitude has lead him to be recognized as one of the elite players in the game, and a man to build a team around.
Problem is there’s nothing that backs that up. After a tremendously hot start, Ethier has regressed terribly. Since coming off the DL, Ethier has hit just .234/.295/.365. While you can blame this slump on a pinky injury, is it a coincidence that his numbers have dropped to what he’s done the last two seasons? In his previous two year, Ethier had an OPS+ of 132. This year: 136. While Ethier probably has suffered from his injury, his huge numbers at the beginning of the year were fueled by a .450 average in May that was destined to go down. As good as he looked at the beginning of the year, Ethier isn’t that much better of a hitter than the player we’ve seen since 2008. Problem is, this is the nicest thing to say about him.
Ethier’s defensive problems have been well documented, and they only seem to be getting worse. Ethier broke into the league as a decent fielding, powerless outfielder. Whether it’s the protein shakes or a Jersey Shore approved workout regime, as Ethier has added more and more power, his defense has gotten worse and worse. Our once average fielding outfielder has went from a bad -8 UZR in 2008, to a worse -13 in 2009, to a second worst in the league -16 runs with two months to go in 2010. Ethier is well on his way to playing Adam Dunn defense, without having an Adam Dunn bat. How much is a player like that worth? If the pace Ethier is on this year is any indication, about 1.5 wins, almost, but not quite what J.A. Happ did last year.
This isn’t a perfect comparison. Unlike Happ, Ethier has had a couple three wins seasons, so I would call Ethier the better player. Like Happ though, he’s a player who’s valued more than he’s really worth. If we want to pull off a deal like the Oswalt trade, a deal that makes other teams wonder why we wouldn’t take their Prospects They Kind Of Like, Ethier is the one that has to go. It’s gonna be unpleasant, but I’m sure lots of Phillies fans were crushed as pitcher of the future J.A. Happ left the team.
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He is playing out of position too.
He is simply a below average defensive left fielder and his defense gets exposed further in right where his arm doesn’t play well.
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 30, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
His arm is +1, it’s all range.
The point isn’t the exact numbers, the point is that people think Ethier is an elite player when he isn’t.
Yes, well last year the arm was a problem…because it’s an unstable metric to that extent. :o
by Chad Moriyama on Jul 31, 2010 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
It was -4 last year, which is bad, but not enough to blame that on all his problems.
by regfairfield on Jul 31, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
this is what i was talking about
In my post. The team is playing poorly and therefore fans are looking for people to put the blame on. Happ is an average pitcher. Andre has an OPS of 136 like you said. Average? 100. Did you think he was going to hit.400 all year? No one did. However he isn’t a 234 hitter. I don’t care what people think, when you have to tinker with a hitters’ mechanics, they will suffer. My advice would be to take a deep breath. You are comparing a LF who is playing RF and producing offensively for multiple years(and who has tranformed from a good offensive but little power to above average power) to a very lucky pitcher. The teams offense id playing bad and we are trying to find answers. But like Kemp, Andre is part of the answer not the problem.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 2:39 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
My point was that 136 OPS+ with really bad defense isn’t all that good.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Or at least, not as good as people thinks it is.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Does Ethier qualify as a “really bad” defender? I’ll accept slightly below average, but I don’t think his bat is anywhere near offset by his glove.
Yes. UZR has a margin of error of five runs, so even assuming the very best from him, his glove has cost us over a win this year.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
the thing with UZR is it is horrible in small sample sizes
Most want a 3 year sample to consider it worthy of being in an argument. Has his defense been bad? Absolutely. Has it gotten worse? Most likely. But is it this bad? I dont think so.
I guess what Im saying is he hasnt had a 3 year sample that is close to each other. It has been drastic, from average to bad to really bad. Also, remember that he is basically a LF playing RF. Not something that defends how bad his defense seems, but he is playing there by necessity more than anything else.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions
In 2.75 years it’s gone from bad to worst in the league. If you want to take an average of that, fine, you end up somewhere around the -13 he had last year.
Is there any difference between LF and RF other than arm, because again his arm grades out fine.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions
LF is the easiest position
to play defensively. It is least demanding, and poor defense generally can be hidden there. That is why most aging sluggers(Manny) go to LF as they get older(remember, Manny came up much like Kemp, smooth powerful RF who was very good defensively. However, he wasnt athletic enough for CF, and he may have been blocked eventually in RF, but I do not recall)
Beyond that, I’ll let someone who can explain it better give it a crack, because I know there are people here that could give you more concrete answers than I can
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
If right is so much harder, why is that always where you stick the gomer kid in Little League? I’ve always thought of the two positions the same except for arm unless you have a funky stadium.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Im assuming now
But I would guess it would be because in little league, most kids pull the ball. And most kids are righties. Therefore, more balls would go to LF than RF. Once you get to the majors, that is much less of a problem.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
In little league, all the outfielders are gomer kids. All the good hitters can pull the ball, so you stick the least gomer of the gomers in left.
From high school on up, you play your worst defender in LF because the longest throw you make is LF to home, with 2B and 3B being right in front of you. In RF, the throw to third is the longest throw in the game, so you need a better arm there.
I like Cetera.
Which goes back to the only difference between the two is arm.
by regfairfield on Jul 31, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the problem is, if you trade Ethier for prospects, you might as well deal Loney, Broxton, Kuo and Martin too. I’d hang onto Kemp just because I wouldn’t want to sell low. Get as many high quality AA prospects as you can and just try to graduate an all star team in three years when the Loons rotation is ready.
If you aren’t willing to do that, it doesn’t make much sense to deal your most productive player. As I said earlier today, sellers should be sellers, buyers should be buyers. Dabbling in between confuses your fan base, confuses your clubhouse and generally keeps you about where you are.
I like Cetera.
I guess I wasn’t clear enough here. The point wasn’t trade Ethier for prospects, the point was that if you want an elite player, you probably have to get rid of Ethier.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
psh, i’ve been talking about seeing what Neddy can get for Ethier for like a month
http://www.dingersblog.com
This post gets a rec from me.
It’s right on. We know who Ethier is. He is an 850-ish OPS player who gets to that number by mixing up incredibly hot with incredibly cold. He plays poor defense in RF. He can’t hit lefties and should probably be platooned.
This is right. He has more value to the Dodgers in trade than on the field.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
Does this hold even if he moves back to left field where his defense is less meaningful. I wouldn’t call Ethier untouchable, but left handed hitters that can put 30+ over the wall are hard to replace. It would have to be a haul to convince me this was a good idea.
But that's the point
it WOULD be a haul.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Jul 30, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep. I’m not saying trade Ethier for prospects, I’m saying the next time a major player becomes available, don’t empty out the farm system, give them Ethier.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
But heres the thing
The next major player will most likely be a pitcher. Who will most likely be a FA at the end of whatever season(ie Lee). Is multiple years of a LH 30+ HR LF worth 2 or 3 months of a pitcher, no matter how good? I dont think so.
If you trade Ethier, you open up another hole. It isnt like we are the Phillies and have Dom Brown to come in…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Why couldn’t he be like Oswalt or Haren?
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Because Oswalt and even Haren
Arent aces. Oswalt is a #2, and Haren is probably a borderline ace(He was an ace last year, but seems to have regressed massively this year). I wouldnt give a LH slugger for a guy who is either overpaid or under performing.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 30, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions
And really this is what comes back to my point. What Ethier does isn’t worth what Oswalt and Haren do, let alone a Josh Johnson.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Well shit
If everyone is so worried about his defense, move him to first base where his SLG of over.500 will do just fine.
by Michael White on Jul 30, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Reg - I normally agree with you but this one doesnt compute exactly...
First off – Andre Ethier has alot of value to the Dodgers mainly because he’s the only power threat on the entire team.
JA Happ, is not near as valuable to the Phillies (bc they already have Halladay, Hamels, etc..)
Everyday 880OPS’ish player is more valuable than a #4 starter.
But I couldnt give a rats arse about defensive metrics. To me, the way to prevent runs is to gather high strikeout, low walk, low homer inducing pitchers. Take the ball out of play, and you reduce the luck or defense needed to prevent runs.
That sounds great in theory, but you just described Roy Halladay. Everyone wants those kind of pitchers, so you have to pay out the ass to get them which we just can’t do.
Since a large case of why Ethier isn’t nearly as valuable as it seems rests on those defensive metrics, if you take them away, then yeah, Ethier is a hell of a lot better than Happ.
I’m not sure if the idea of being the one power threat on the team clicks. It sounds good in theory but I’d like to see something back it up.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Well its more that I think it’d be almost impossible to get equal value in dealing Ethier, bc if you take away his power how do you replace it?
To me, Ethier’s value is probably inflated because he’s the only power guy on the Dodgers. Sure…put Ethier on the Yanks/Red Sox and he’s just another guy…but since he’s thee guy on the Dodgers…his value is inflated.
no, his value isn’t inflated, he just straight up owns. His future value is in question
the point is the team isn’t going anywhere this year and while there may be time to rebound next year, you can rebuild the farm a little and have two or so power prospects ready in a couple years.
http://www.dingersblog.com
And again, the point wasn’t Ethier = Happ, it’s that like Happ, Ethiers reputation is higher than his value.
by regfairfield on Jul 30, 2010 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's silly to think the Dodgers
would be the only ones to recognize this and get an elite player in return for Ethier.
If the Dodgers trade Ethier, Ned will get Paul Maholm and Zack Duke.
I don’t think every team would, but it sure worked on the D’Backs and Astros.
by regfairfield on Jul 31, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Sean Smith's system had Ethier only -4 in fielding in 2009,
And his WAR a healthy 3.5 in 2009.
Of course, his fielding as gone to hell at -16 in 2010.
You can find this on Ethier’s B-R page.
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