July 31st, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Jul 31, 2010 12:36 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 12:15 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | SF | C.Billingsley vs B.Zito | SF | 52.38% | 50.73% |
Notes: Must win game? Yeah, probably. Chad Billingsley is going on short rest today. The game is starting early, so make sure you get your game score and over/under guesses in on time.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of pitches: 93.5
3. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
4. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 4.5
5. B.Zito total batters faced: 26.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 SF 3-2 | 51 SF 7-1 | 101 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 2 SF 2-1 | 52 LAN 8-2 | 102 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 3 SF 4-3 | 53 SF 6-0 | 103 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 LAN 8-3 | 104 SF 11-3 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 LAN 7-6 | 105 SF 9-7 | ||
| 6 SF 5-4 | 56 LAN 8-1 | 106 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 7 LAN 4-3 | 57 LAN 8-4 | 107 SF 10-0 | ||
| 8 SF 3-1 | 58 SF 7-5 | 108 SF 10-5 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 SF 8-2 | 109 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 | 60 LAN 7-0 | 110 SF 11-1 | ||
| 11 SF 1-0 | 61 SF 8-3 | 111 SF 11-2 | ||
| 12 SF 4-2 | 62 SF 8-4 | 112 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-1 | 63 LAN 8-5 | 113 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 14 SF 4-1 | 64 LAN 9-2 | 114 SF 10-6 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-2 | 65 SF 7-0 | 115 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 SF 8-1 | 116 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 17 LAN 5-4 | 67 SF 8-7 | 117 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 18 SF 2-0 | 68 LAN 9-3 | 118 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 19 SF 5-2 | 69 SF 8-5 | 119 SF 11-4 | ||
| 20 SF 5-3 | 70 LAN 8-0 | 120 SF 10-9 | ||
| 21 LAN 1-0 | 71 LAN 8-6 | 121 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 22 LAN 2-0 | 72 LAN 9-4 | 122 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 23 SF 6-5 | 73 SF 9-2 | 123 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 24 SF 3-0 | 74 LAN 9-1 | 124 SF 11-5 | ||
| 25 LAN 3-0 | 75 SF 9-1 | 125 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 26 LAN 6-3 | 76 SF 8-0 | 126 SF 12-4 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-1 | 77 SF 8-6 | 127 SF 11-0 | ||
| 28 SF 5-1 | 78 SF 9-3 | 128 SF 10-7 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-2 | 79 LAN 10-2 | 129 SF 11-6 | ||
| 30 SF 6-3 | 80 LAN 9-5 | 130 SF 12-1 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-4 | 81 LAN 8-7 | 131 SF 12-3 | ||
| 32 SF 4-0 | 82 LAN 10-3 | 132 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 33 LAN 4-0 | 83 SF 9-4 | 133 SF 12-2 | ||
| 34 SF 6-2 | 84 LAN 10-1 | 134 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-5 | 85 LAN 9-0 | 135 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-1 | 86 LAN 10-4 | 136 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 37 SF 6-4 | 87 LAN 9-6 | 137 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 38 LAN 5-0 | 88 SF 10-2 | 138 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-2 | 89 SF 9-5 | 139 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-3 | 90 SF 9-6 | 140 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 41 SF 6-1 | 91 SF 10-3 | 141 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 42 SF 7-6 | 92 SF 9-8 | 142 SF 12-5 | ||
| 43 SF 5-0 | 93 SF 10-1 | 143 SF 13-2 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-1 | 94 SF 10-4 | 144 SF 13-1 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-4 | 95 SF 9-0 | 145 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 46 SF 7-2 | 96 LAN 11-3 | 146 SF 12-0 | ||
| 47 LAN 6-0 | 97 LAN 10-5 | 147 SF 10-8 | ||
| 48 SF 7-4 | 98 LAN 9-7 | 148 SF 13-3 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-5 | 99 LAN 11-2 | 149 SF 11-7 | ||
| 50 SF 7-3 | 100 LAN 10-0 | 150 SF 11-8 |
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Over/Under Question
Worth 10 points.
1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of pitches: 93.5
3. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
4. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 4.5
5. B.Zito total batters faced: 26.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
#2 SF 2-1, UOUUU
Nobody guessed the final score correctly. Couple of close guesses, but nobody got the over/under correct either. The 5-3-1 points go to…
5 – Alex41592, SF (#14)
3 – Humma Kavula, SF (#30) <— now tied for 1st
1 – dsm9412, SF (#32)
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