FanPost

July 5th, Blogger Night - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 10:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
FLA LAN N.Robertson vs J.Ely LAN 61.83% 59.84%

Notes: My swag from Friday predicting the Dodgers would be a 60% favorite on Monday was very close, as the swag pretty much split the difference between Vegas and the Simulator. As part of Ely-Mania you can not only guess the final score but also take your own swag at the 10 bonus point over/under question. Get all five over/unders correct and receive an extra 10 points.

Over/Under Question

1. John Ely pitches: 103.5

2. John Ely SO minus BB: 3.5

3. John Ely HR allowed: 0.5

4. John Ely strikeouts minus Florida Marlins total runs scored for game: 1.5

5. John Ely strikes thrown minus balls thrown: 20.5

Format for answer: OUOOO

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 101 FLA 10-4
2 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 52 FLA 7-5 &nbsp 102 FLA 10-1
3 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 53 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 103 LAN 10-6
4 FLA 3-2 &nbsp 54 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 104 FLA 9-0
5 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 105 FLA 9-7
6 FLA 2-1 &nbsp 56 FLA 7-1 &nbsp 106 LAN 12-2
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 FLA 7-6 &nbsp 107 LAN 12-1
8 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 108 FLA 10-5
9 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 59 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 109 FLA 9-8
10 FLA 4-3 &nbsp 60 FLA 6-0 &nbsp 110 LAN 12-3
11 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 61 FLA 8-3 &nbsp 111 FLA 10-6
12 FLA 3-1 &nbsp 62 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 112 FLA 10-7
13 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 113 FLA 11-2
14 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 64 FLA 8-2 &nbsp 114 LAN 12-4
15 FLA 4-2 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 115 FLA 11-3
16 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 66 FLA 8-4 &nbsp 116 LAN 11-5
17 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 67 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-0
18 FLA 5-4 &nbsp 68 FLA 8-5 &nbsp 118 LAN 10-7
19 FLA 1-0 &nbsp 69 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 119 LAN 10-8
20 FLA 5-3 &nbsp 70 FLA 8-1 &nbsp 120 LAN 10-9
21 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 71 FLA 7-0 &nbsp 121 FLA 11-5
22 FLA 4-1 &nbsp 72 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 122 LAN 13-1
23 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 123 FLA 10-0
24 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 74 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 124 FLA 11-4
25 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 75 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 125 FLA 11-1
26 FLA 5-2 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 126 LAN 13-3
27 FLA 2-0 &nbsp 77 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 127 LAN 13-2
28 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 78 FLA 9-2 &nbsp 128 LAN 11-6
29 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 79 FLA 8-7 &nbsp 129 FLA 10-8
30 FLA 5-1 &nbsp 80 FLA 8-6 &nbsp 130 LAN 13-0
31 FLA 3-0 &nbsp 81 FLA 9-3 &nbsp 131 LAN 13-4
32 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 82 FLA 9-4 &nbsp 132 FLA 11-0
33 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 83 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 133 FLA 12-3
34 FLA 6-3 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 134 LAN 12-5
35 FLA 6-4 &nbsp 85 FLA 8-0 &nbsp 135 FLA 12-2
36 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 86 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 136 FLA 10-9
37 FLA 6-2 &nbsp 87 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 137 FLA 12-1
38 FLA 4-0 &nbsp 88 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 138 FLA 11-7
39 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 89 FLA 9-1 &nbsp 139 LAN 14-2
40 FLA 6-5 &nbsp 90 FLA 9-5 &nbsp 140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 91 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 141 LAN 14-3
42 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 92 FLA 9-6 &nbsp 142 LAN 13-6
43 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 93 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 143 LAN 11-7
44 FLA 6-1 &nbsp 94 LAN 11-0 &nbsp 144 FLA 11-6
45 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 95 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 145 FLA 12-4
46 FLA 5-0 &nbsp 96 FLA 10-3 &nbsp 146 FLA 12-5
47 FLA 7-2 &nbsp 97 FLA 10-2 &nbsp 147 FLA 12-6
48 FLA 7-3 &nbsp 98 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 148 FLA 13-1
49 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 99 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 149 LAN 13-5
50 FLA 7-4 &nbsp 100 LAN 11-4 &nbsp 150 FLA 11-8

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.