I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 10:15 PM)
Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
FLA | LAN | N.Robertson vs J.Ely | LAN | 61.83% | 59.84% |
Notes: My swag from Friday predicting the Dodgers would be a 60% favorite on Monday was very close, as the swag pretty much split the difference between Vegas and the Simulator. As part of Ely-Mania you can not only guess the final score but also take your own swag at the 10 bonus point over/under question. Get all five over/unders correct and receive an extra 10 points.
Over/Under Question
1. John Ely pitches: 103.5
2. John Ely SO minus BB: 3.5
3. John Ely HR allowed: 0.5
4. John Ely strikeouts minus Florida Marlins total runs scored for game: 1.5
5. John Ely strikes thrown minus balls thrown: 20.5
Format for answer: OUOOO
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
1 LAN 3-2 |   | 51 LAN 8-2 |   | 101 FLA 10-4 |
2 LAN 2-1 |   | 52 FLA 7-5 |   | 102 FLA 10-1 |
3 LAN 4-3 |   | 53 LAN 7-5 |   | 103 LAN 10-6 |
4 FLA 3-2 |   | 54 LAN 7-0 |   | 104 FLA 9-0 |
5 LAN 3-1 |   | 55 LAN 8-3 |   | 105 FLA 9-7 |
6 FLA 2-1 |   | 56 FLA 7-1 |   | 106 LAN 12-2 |
7 LAN 4-2 |   | 57 FLA 7-6 |   | 107 LAN 12-1 |
8 LAN 5-4 |   | 58 LAN 8-4 |   | 108 FLA 10-5 |
9 LAN 1-0 |   | 59 LAN 9-2 |   | 109 FLA 9-8 |
10 FLA 4-3 |   | 60 FLA 6-0 |   | 110 LAN 12-3 |
11 LAN 4-1 |   | 61 FLA 8-3 |   | 111 FLA 10-6 |
12 FLA 3-1 |   | 62 LAN 9-3 |   | 112 FLA 10-7 |
13 LAN 5-2 |   | 63 LAN 9-1 |   | 113 FLA 11-2 |
14 LAN 2-0 |   | 64 FLA 8-2 |   | 114 LAN 12-4 |
15 FLA 4-2 |   | 65 LAN 8-0 |   | 115 FLA 11-3 |
16 LAN 3-0 |   | 66 FLA 8-4 |   | 116 LAN 11-5 |
17 LAN 5-3 |   | 67 LAN 8-5 |   | 117 LAN 12-0 |
18 FLA 5-4 |   | 68 FLA 8-5 |   | 118 LAN 10-7 |
19 FLA 1-0 |   | 69 LAN 8-7 |   | 119 LAN 10-8 |
20 FLA 5-3 |   | 70 FLA 8-1 |   | 120 LAN 10-9 |
21 LAN 5-1 |   | 71 FLA 7-0 |   | 121 FLA 11-5 |
22 FLA 4-1 |   | 72 LAN 10-2 |   | 122 LAN 13-1 |
23 LAN 6-5 |   | 73 LAN 9-4 |   | 123 FLA 10-0 |
24 LAN 6-3 |   | 74 LAN 8-6 |   | 124 FLA 11-4 |
25 LAN 4-0 |   | 75 LAN 10-3 |   | 125 FLA 11-1 |
26 FLA 5-2 |   | 76 LAN 9-0 |   | 126 LAN 13-3 |
27 FLA 2-0 |   | 77 LAN 10-1 |   | 127 LAN 13-2 |
28 LAN 6-2 |   | 78 FLA 9-2 |   | 128 LAN 11-6 |
29 LAN 6-1 |   | 79 FLA 8-7 |   | 129 FLA 10-8 |
30 FLA 5-1 |   | 80 FLA 8-6 |   | 130 LAN 13-0 |
31 FLA 3-0 |   | 81 FLA 9-3 |   | 131 LAN 13-4 |
32 LAN 6-4 |   | 82 FLA 9-4 |   | 132 FLA 11-0 |
33 LAN 5-0 |   | 83 LAN 10-0 |   | 133 FLA 12-3 |
34 FLA 6-3 |   | 84 LAN 9-5 |   | 134 LAN 12-5 |
35 FLA 6-4 |   | 85 FLA 8-0 |   | 135 FLA 12-2 |
36 LAN 7-2 |   | 86 LAN 11-2 |   | 136 FLA 10-9 |
37 FLA 6-2 |   | 87 LAN 10-4 |   | 137 FLA 12-1 |
38 FLA 4-0 |   | 88 LAN 9-6 |   | 138 FLA 11-7 |
39 LAN 7-1 |   | 89 FLA 9-1 |   | 139 LAN 14-2 |
40 FLA 6-5 |   | 90 FLA 9-5 |   | 140 LAN 12-6 |
41 LAN 6-0 |   | 91 LAN 11-1 |   | 141 LAN 14-3 |
42 LAN 7-3 |   | 92 FLA 9-6 |   | 142 LAN 13-6 |
43 LAN 7-6 |   | 93 LAN 9-8 |   | 143 LAN 11-7 |
44 FLA 6-1 |   | 94 LAN 11-0 |   | 144 FLA 11-6 |
45 LAN 7-4 |   | 95 LAN 11-3 |   | 145 FLA 12-4 |
46 FLA 5-0 |   | 96 FLA 10-3 |   | 146 FLA 12-5 |
47 FLA 7-2 |   | 97 FLA 10-2 |   | 147 FLA 12-6 |
48 FLA 7-3 |   | 98 LAN 10-5 |   | 148 FLA 13-1 |
49 LAN 8-1 |   | 99 LAN 9-7 |   | 149 LAN 13-5 |
50 FLA 7-4 |   | 100 LAN 11-4 |   | 150 FLA 11-8 |