FanPost

July 6th, Marlins vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 7:15 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 FLA LAN C.Volstad vs V.Padilla LAN 61.98% 53.13%

 

Notes:  Vegas is much more confident in a Dodgers victory than the simulator is today.  Get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 FLA 7-6   101 FLA 11-4
2 LAN 4-3   52 FLA 6-0   102 LAN 11-3
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 7-1   103 FLA 11-2
4 FLA 3-2   54 FLA 8-3   104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 5-4   55 FLA 8-2   105 FLA 9-8
6 FLA 4-3   56 LAN 6-0   106 FLA 10-6
7 FLA 2-1   57 FLA 8-4   107 FLA 11-5
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 8-2   108 LAN 11-1
9 LAN 3-1   59 FLA 8-1   109 FLA 11-3
10 FLA 3-1   60 LAN 8-3   110 FLA 11-1
11 FLA 4-2   61 FLA 7-0   111 LAN 10-6
12 LAN 5-3   62 LAN 8-4   112 LAN 10-7
13 LAN 5-2   63 LAN 8-7   113 LAN 10-0
14 FLA 5-3   64 LAN 8-5   114 LAN 11-4
15 FLA 5-4   65 LAN 8-1   115 FLA 12-3
16 LAN 1-0   66 FLA 8-5   116 FLA 12-2
17 LAN 6-5   67 FLA 9-3   117 FLA 10-7
18 LAN 4-1   68 FLA 9-2   118 LAN 10-9
19 FLA 4-1   69 FLA 8-6   119 LAN 11-5
20 FLA 5-2   70 LAN 9-3   120 LAN 12-2
21 LAN 2-0   71 LAN 8-6   121 LAN 12-4
22 LAN 6-3   72 FLA 9-4   122 FLA 11-6
23 FLA 2-0   73 LAN 7-0   123 FLA 12-1
24 FLA 6-4   74 LAN 9-2   124 LAN 12-3
25 FLA 1-0   75 FLA 8-0   125 FLA 12-4
26 FLA 5-1   76 FLA 9-1   126 FLA 10-8
27 FLA 6-3   77 FLA 8-7   127 LAN 11-6
28 LAN 5-1   78 LAN 9-1   128 FLA 11-0
29 FLA 6-5   79 LAN 9-4   129 LAN 11-0
30 FLA 6-2   80 FLA 9-5   130 LAN 12-1
31 FLA 3-0   81 LAN 10-2   131 LAN 10-8
32 LAN 3-0   82 LAN 9-5   132 LAN 12-5
33 LAN 6-4   83 LAN 9-8   133 FLA 11-7
34 LAN 6-2   84 FLA 10-3   134 FLA 12-0
35 FLA 6-1   85 FLA 10-2   135 FLA 10-9
36 FLA 4-0   86 LAN 8-0   136 LAN 13-3
37 LAN 7-6   87 FLA 10-4   137 LAN 13-4
38 FLA 7-3   88 FLA 9-6   138 FLA 12-5
39 LAN 7-4   89 LAN 10-3   139 FLA 12-6
40 LAN 6-1   90 LAN 9-6   140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 4-0   91 FLA 10-1   141 FLA 13-4
42 FLA 7-2   92 FLA 9-7   142 FLA 13-3
43 FLA 7-4   93 LAN 10-4   143 LAN 13-2
44 FLA 5-0   94 FLA 9-0   144 FLA 12-7
45 LAN 7-3   95 FLA 10-5   145 FLA 13-1
46 LAN 7-5   96 LAN 9-0   146 LAN 12-6
47 LAN 5-0   97 LAN 10-1   147 LAN 12-0
48 FLA 7-5   98 LAN 10-5   148 FLA 13-2
49 LAN 7-2   99 FLA 10-0   149 LAN 12-7
50 FLA 7-1   100 LAN 11-2   150 LAN 13-1
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