FanPost

July 6th, Marlins vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 7:15 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 FLA LAN C.Volstad vs V.Padilla LAN 61.98% 53.13%

 

Notes:  Vegas is much more confident in a Dodgers victory than the simulator is today.  Get your game score guesses in.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 FLA 7-6 &nbsp 101 FLA 11-4
2 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 52 FLA 6-0 &nbsp 102 LAN 11-3
3 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 53 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 103 FLA 11-2
4 FLA 3-2 &nbsp 54 FLA 8-3 &nbsp 104 LAN 9-7
5 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 55 FLA 8-2 &nbsp 105 FLA 9-8
6 FLA 4-3 &nbsp 56 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 106 FLA 10-6
7 FLA 2-1 &nbsp 57 FLA 8-4 &nbsp 107 FLA 11-5
8 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 108 LAN 11-1
9 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 59 FLA 8-1 &nbsp 109 FLA 11-3
10 FLA 3-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 110 FLA 11-1
11 FLA 4-2 &nbsp 61 FLA 7-0 &nbsp 111 LAN 10-6
12 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 112 LAN 10-7
13 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 113 LAN 10-0
14 FLA 5-3 &nbsp 64 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 114 LAN 11-4
15 FLA 5-4 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 115 FLA 12-3
16 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 66 FLA 8-5 &nbsp 116 FLA 12-2
17 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 67 FLA 9-3 &nbsp 117 FLA 10-7
18 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 68 FLA 9-2 &nbsp 118 LAN 10-9
19 FLA 4-1 &nbsp 69 FLA 8-6 &nbsp 119 LAN 11-5
20 FLA 5-2 &nbsp 70 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 120 LAN 12-2
21 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 71 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 121 LAN 12-4
22 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 72 FLA 9-4 &nbsp 122 FLA 11-6
23 FLA 2-0 &nbsp 73 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 123 FLA 12-1
24 FLA 6-4 &nbsp 74 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 124 LAN 12-3
25 FLA 1-0 &nbsp 75 FLA 8-0 &nbsp 125 FLA 12-4
26 FLA 5-1 &nbsp 76 FLA 9-1 &nbsp 126 FLA 10-8
27 FLA 6-3 &nbsp 77 FLA 8-7 &nbsp 127 LAN 11-6
28 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 128 FLA 11-0
29 FLA 6-5 &nbsp 79 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 129 LAN 11-0
30 FLA 6-2 &nbsp 80 FLA 9-5 &nbsp 130 LAN 12-1
31 FLA 3-0 &nbsp 81 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 131 LAN 10-8
32 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 82 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 132 LAN 12-5
33 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 83 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 133 FLA 11-7
34 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 84 FLA 10-3 &nbsp 134 FLA 12-0
35 FLA 6-1 &nbsp 85 FLA 10-2 &nbsp 135 FLA 10-9
36 FLA 4-0 &nbsp 86 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 136 LAN 13-3
37 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 87 FLA 10-4 &nbsp 137 LAN 13-4
38 FLA 7-3 &nbsp 88 FLA 9-6 &nbsp 138 FLA 12-5
39 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 89 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 139 FLA 12-6
40 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 90 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 91 FLA 10-1 &nbsp 141 FLA 13-4
42 FLA 7-2 &nbsp 92 FLA 9-7 &nbsp 142 FLA 13-3
43 FLA 7-4 &nbsp 93 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 143 LAN 13-2
44 FLA 5-0 &nbsp 94 FLA 9-0 &nbsp 144 FLA 12-7
45 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 95 FLA 10-5 &nbsp 145 FLA 13-1
46 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 96 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 146 LAN 12-6
47 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 147 LAN 12-0
48 FLA 7-5 &nbsp 98 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 148 FLA 13-2
49 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 99 FLA 10-0 &nbsp 149 LAN 12-7
50 FLA 7-1 &nbsp 100 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 150 LAN 13-1
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