FanPost

July 7th, Marlins vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Marlins and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 FLA LAN J.Johnson vs H.Kuroda FLA 54.13% 49.89%

 

Notes:   A tough and excruciating 9th inning for MammothDodger as he nearly missed a 49 point jackpot but instead settled for a five point pat on the back.  Vegas loves them some Josh Johnson, and why not.  He's very good, but has also been a bit on the lucky side.  Alongside his 1.82 ERA, he also sports a FIP of 2.39 and an xFIP of 3.10.  Kuroda on the otherhand has been a little unlucky on his BABIP allowed (.337) but that has been offset by a LOB% of only 68.9%.  This will be a tough game for the Dodgers, but Vegas is favoring the Marlins a little too much.  Get your game score guess and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Marlins hits minus Dodgers hits: 0.5
2. J.Johnson total pitches minus H.Kuroda total pitches: 8.5
3. J.Johnson strike outs minus Dodgers total runs scored: 3.5
4. A.Ethier + M.Kemp + J.Loney RBIs: 1.5
5. Dodgers most runs scored in an inning: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 FLA 8-2   101 LAN 11-2
2 LAN 3-2   52 FLA 7-4   102 LAN 11-1
3 LAN 1-0   53 LAN 7-3   103 LAN 9-8
4 FLA 2-1   54 FLA 8-0   104 LAN 10-4
5 FLA 3-2   55 LAN 7-0   105 FLA 9-7
6 LAN 4-3   56 LAN 7-4   106 FLA 12-1
7 FLA 1-0   57 FLA 7-5   107 FLA 12-2
8 FLA 3-1   58 FLA 8-3   108 LAN 11-3
9 LAN 3-1   59 LAN 8-2   109 FLA 10-6
10 FLA 2-0   60 FLA 9-2   110 FLA 12-0
11 LAN 2-0   61 LAN 8-1   111 FLA 11-4
12 FLA 4-2   62 FLA 9-1   112 FLA 9-8
13 FLA 4-3   63 LAN 7-5   113 LAN 9-7
14 FLA 3-0   64 LAN 8-0   114 LAN 11-0
15 LAN 4-2   65 FLA 7-6   115 LAN 10-5
16 FLA 4-1   66 FLA 8-4   116 FLA 13-1
17 LAN 5-4   67 FLA 9-0   117 FLA 12-3
18 LAN 4-1   68 FLA 9-3   118 LAN 10-6
19 LAN 3-0   69 LAN 8-3   119 LAN 11-4
20 FLA 4-0   70 FLA 8-5   120 FLA 13-2
21 FLA 5-2   71 FLA 9-4   121 FLA 10-7
22 FLA 5-1   72 LAN 8-4   122 LAN 12-1
23 FLA 5-3   73 FLA 10-1   123 LAN 11-5
24 LAN 5-2   74 FLA 10-2   124 FLA 13-0
25 LAN 5-3   75 LAN 8-7   125 LAN 12-0
26 FLA 5-4   76 LAN 9-2   126 FLA 12-5
27 FLA 5-0   77 FLA 10-3   127 LAN 11-6
28 LAN 4-0   78 LAN 8-5   128 FLA 11-5
29 LAN 5-1   79 FLA 10-0   129 LAN 12-2
30 FLA 6-1   80 LAN 9-1   130 LAN 10-9
31 FLA 6-2   81 FLA 8-6   131 LAN 10-7
32 LAN 6-5   82 LAN 9-3   132 FLA 11-7
33 FLA 6-3   83 FLA 8-7   133 LAN 12-4
34 LAN 5-0   84 LAN 8-6   134 FLA 12-4
35 FLA 6-0   85 LAN 9-4   135 LAN 12-3
36 LAN 6-2   86 LAN 9-0   136 FLA 10-8
37 LAN 6-3   87 LAN 10-1   137 LAN 13-2
38 LAN 6-1   88 LAN 10-2   138 LAN 13-3
39 FLA 6-4   89 FLA 9-5   139 LAN 13-1
40 FLA 7-1   90 FLA 11-1   140 FLA 11-6
41 FLA 7-2   91 FLA 11-2   141 FLA 13-4
42 LAN 6-4   92 FLA 11-0   142 FLA 14-2
43 FLA 7-0   93 FLA 10-4   143 LAN 13-0
44 FLA 6-5   94 FLA 11-3   144 LAN 12-5
45 FLA 7-3   95 LAN 10-0   145 FLA 13-3
46 LAN 6-0   96 FLA 9-6   146 FLA 15-1
47 FLA 8-1   97 LAN 9-6   147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 7-1   98 LAN 9-5   148 FLA 14-1
49 LAN 7-6   99 LAN 10-3   149 LAN 14-2
50 LAN 7-2   100 FLA 10-5   150 FLA 10-9
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