FanPost

July 8th, Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CHN LAN R.Wells vs C.Kershaw LAN 65.87% 59.59%

 

Notes:   Vegas is pretty confident that Kershaw will get the Dodgers back on the winning track Thursday.  The simulator leans towards a Dodgers win, but drops the Dodgers win probability due to Randy Wells being a rather unlucky pitcher so far this year with the BABIP.

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Kershaw strike-outs: 7.5
2. Dodgers total runs minus Cubs total runs: 1.5
3. Cubs HRs: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of pitchers used: 3.5
5. R.Furcal times on base: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 CHN 7-3   101 LAN 11-3
2 LAN 1-0   52 LAN 8-1   102 CHN 11-2
3 LAN 3-2   53 LAN 7-6   103 CHN 10-0
4 CHN 2-1   54 LAN 8-2   104 LAN 10-5
5 LAN 2-0   55 CHN 7-4   105 CHN 11-3
6 LAN 3-1   56 CHN 7-0   106 LAN 9-7
7 LAN 4-3   57 CHN 8-2   107 CHN 11-1
8 CHN 3-2   58 LAN 8-3   108 LAN 12-2
9 CHN 1-0   59 CHN 8-1   109 LAN 11-4
10 LAN 3-0   60 CHN 7-5   110 LAN 12-0
11 CHN 3-1   61 LAN 9-1   111 CHN 11-0
12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 7-5   112 CHN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 9-0   113 CHN 10-5
14 CHN 2-0   64 CHN 7-6   114 CHN 9-7
15 CHN 4-2   65 LAN 8-4   115 LAN 10-6
16 CHN 4-3   66 LAN 9-2   116 LAN 10-7
17 LAN 5-4   67 CHN 8-3   117 LAN 12-3
18 LAN 4-0   68 CHN 8-4   118 LAN 13-1
19 LAN 5-2   69 CHN 9-2   119 LAN 11-5
20 CHN 4-1   70 CHN 8-0   120 CHN 12-3
21 LAN 5-1   71 LAN 8-5   121 LAN 12-4
22 CHN 3-0   72 CHN 9-3   122 CHN 12-2
23 LAN 5-3   73 LAN 9-3   123 CHN 11-4
24 LAN 5-0   74 LAN 10-1   124 CHN 10-7
25 CHN 5-2   75 LAN 8-7   125 CHN 12-1
26 CHN 5-3   76 CHN 9-1   126 CHN 11-6
27 CHN 5-4   77 CHN 8-5   127 CHN 11-5
28 CHN 5-1   78 LAN 10-2   128 CHN 9-8
29 LAN 6-1   79 LAN 8-6   129 CHN 12-4
30 CHN 4-0   80 CHN 9-0   130 LAN 13-0
31 LAN 6-0   81 CHN 10-2   131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 6-5   82 LAN 10-0   132 LAN 13-3
33 LAN 6-3   83 CHN 9-4   133 LAN 12-5
34 LAN 6-2   84 LAN 9-4   134 LAN 13-4
35 CHN 6-1   85 LAN 10-3   135 LAN 10-9
36 CHN 6-3   86 CHN 8-6   136 CHN 12-0
37 CHN 6-2   87 LAN 11-1   137 LAN 14-0
38 CHN 5-0   88 CHN 10-1   138 LAN 10-8
39 LAN 6-4   89 LAN 11-0   139 LAN 11-6
40 LAN 7-1   90 CHN 9-5   140 CHN 11-7
41 LAN 7-2   91 CHN 10-3   141 LAN 11-7
42 CHN 6-4   92 CHN 10-4   142 LAN 14-2
43 LAN 7-0   93 LAN 9-6   143 CHN 12-6
44 LAN 7-3   94 CHN 8-7   144 CHN 12-5
45 CHN 6-5   95 LAN 9-5   145 CHN 13-2
46 CHN 6-0   96 LAN 11-2   146 CHN 13-0
47 CHN 7-2   97 LAN 12-1   147 LAN 12-6
48 LAN 7-4   98 LAN 10-4   148 CHN 10-9
49 CHN 7-1   99 LAN 9-8   149 LAN 15-2
50 LAN 8-0   100 CHN 9-6   150 LAN 14-1
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