FanPost

July 8th, Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Cubs and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CHN LAN R.Wells vs C.Kershaw LAN 65.87% 59.59%

 

Notes:   Vegas is pretty confident that Kershaw will get the Dodgers back on the winning track Thursday.  The simulator leans towards a Dodgers win, but drops the Dodgers win probability due to Randy Wells being a rather unlucky pitcher so far this year with the BABIP.

Over/Under Questions:

1. C.Kershaw strike-outs: 7.5
2. Dodgers total runs minus Cubs total runs: 1.5
3. Cubs HRs: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of pitchers used: 3.5
5. R.Furcal times on base: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 51 CHN 7-3 &nbsp 101 LAN 11-3
2 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 52 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 102 CHN 11-2
3 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 53 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 103 CHN 10-0
4 CHN 2-1 &nbsp 54 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 104 LAN 10-5
5 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 55 CHN 7-4 &nbsp 105 CHN 11-3
6 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 56 CHN 7-0 &nbsp 106 LAN 9-7
7 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 57 CHN 8-2 &nbsp 107 CHN 11-1
8 CHN 3-2 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 108 LAN 12-2
9 CHN 1-0 &nbsp 59 CHN 8-1 &nbsp 109 LAN 11-4
10 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 60 CHN 7-5 &nbsp 110 LAN 12-0
11 CHN 3-1 &nbsp 61 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 111 CHN 11-0
12 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 62 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 112 CHN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 113 CHN 10-5
14 CHN 2-0 &nbsp 64 CHN 7-6 &nbsp 114 CHN 9-7
15 CHN 4-2 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 115 LAN 10-6
16 CHN 4-3 &nbsp 66 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 116 LAN 10-7
17 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 67 CHN 8-3 &nbsp 117 LAN 12-3
18 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 68 CHN 8-4 &nbsp 118 LAN 13-1
19 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 69 CHN 9-2 &nbsp 119 LAN 11-5
20 CHN 4-1 &nbsp 70 CHN 8-0 &nbsp 120 CHN 12-3
21 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 71 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 121 LAN 12-4
22 CHN 3-0 &nbsp 72 CHN 9-3 &nbsp 122 CHN 12-2
23 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 123 CHN 11-4
24 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 74 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 124 CHN 10-7
25 CHN 5-2 &nbsp 75 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 125 CHN 12-1
26 CHN 5-3 &nbsp 76 CHN 9-1 &nbsp 126 CHN 11-6
27 CHN 5-4 &nbsp 77 CHN 8-5 &nbsp 127 CHN 11-5
28 CHN 5-1 &nbsp 78 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 128 CHN 9-8
29 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 79 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 129 CHN 12-4
30 CHN 4-0 &nbsp 80 CHN 9-0 &nbsp 130 LAN 13-0
31 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 81 CHN 10-2 &nbsp 131 LAN 13-2
32 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 82 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 132 LAN 13-3
33 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 83 CHN 9-4 &nbsp 133 LAN 12-5
34 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 84 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 134 LAN 13-4
35 CHN 6-1 &nbsp 85 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 135 LAN 10-9
36 CHN 6-3 &nbsp 86 CHN 8-6 &nbsp 136 CHN 12-0
37 CHN 6-2 &nbsp 87 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 137 LAN 14-0
38 CHN 5-0 &nbsp 88 CHN 10-1 &nbsp 138 LAN 10-8
39 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 89 LAN 11-0 &nbsp 139 LAN 11-6
40 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 90 CHN 9-5 &nbsp 140 CHN 11-7
41 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 91 CHN 10-3 &nbsp 141 LAN 11-7
42 CHN 6-4 &nbsp 92 CHN 10-4 &nbsp 142 LAN 14-2
43 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 93 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 143 CHN 12-6
44 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 94 CHN 8-7 &nbsp 144 CHN 12-5
45 CHN 6-5 &nbsp 95 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 145 CHN 13-2
46 CHN 6-0 &nbsp 96 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 146 CHN 13-0
47 CHN 7-2 &nbsp 97 LAN 12-1 &nbsp 147 LAN 12-6
48 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 98 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 148 CHN 10-9
49 CHN 7-1 &nbsp 99 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 149 LAN 15-2
50 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 100 CHN 9-6 &nbsp 150 LAN 14-1
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