FanPost

August 1st, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:25 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SF C.Kershaw vs M.Cain LAN 53.70% 51.20%

 

Notes:    Yesterday, Ned Colletti went shopping.  The only item he forgot to pick up was a white flag.  Maybe he is waiting for them to go on sale by the middle of next week.  Another low scoring pitchers duel is expected Sunday, with both Vegas and the simulator making the Dodgers very slight favorites.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw number of pitches: 108.5
3. Giants total number of hits: 6.5
4. C.Kershaw number of strikeouts minus walks: 4.5
5. M.Cain total batters faced: 25.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 SF 7-3   101 SF 9-6
2 SF 2-1   52 LAN 7-0   102 LAN 11-4
3 SF 4-3   53 LAN 8-1   103 SF 9-7
4 LAN 3-2   54 SF 7-1   104 LAN 12-3
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 8-3   105 SF 11-2
6 LAN 3-1   56 SF 6-0   106 LAN 9-8
7 SF 1-0   57 SF 7-5   107 LAN 11-5
8 LAN 4-3   58 LAN 7-6   108 SF 10-5
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 8-4   109 LAN 10-6
10 SF 3-1   60 SF 8-2   110 LAN 12-2
11 SF 5-4   61 LAN 9-2   111 SF 11-3
12 SF 4-2   62 SF 8-3   112 LAN 12-1
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 8-5   113 SF 10-0
14 LAN 2-0   64 LAN 8-0   114 SF 11-1
15 LAN 1-0   65 LAN 9-3   115 LAN 11-0
16 LAN 5-2   66 SF 7-0   116 LAN 12-4
17 SF 4-1   67 LAN 9-1   117 SF 10-6
18 SF 2-0   68 SF 8-1   118 LAN 10-7
19 LAN 5-3   69 LAN 9-4   119 SF 10-9
20 LAN 3-0   70 SF 8-7   120 SF 10-7
21 LAN 5-4   71 SF 8-4   121 SF 11-4
22 SF 5-2   72 SF 8-5   122 LAN 10-8
23 SF 5-3   73 LAN 8-6   123 LAN 13-3
24 LAN 5-1   74 SF 9-3   124 SF 12-2
25 SF 3-0   75 SF 9-1   125 LAN 11-6
26 SF 6-5   76 SF 9-2   126 SF 12-3
27 LAN 4-0   77 LAN 9-5   127 LAN 12-5
28 LAN 6-3   78 LAN 10-3   128 SF 11-0
29 LAN 6-2   79 LAN 10-2   129 LAN 12-0
30 SF 5-1   80 LAN 9-0   130 SF 10-8
31 LAN 6-1   81 SF 8-6   131 SF 11-6
32 LAN 6-4   82 SF 8-0   132 SF 12-1
33 LAN 5-0   83 SF 9-4   133 LAN 13-2
34 SF 4-0   84 LAN 10-1   134 SF 11-5
35 SF 6-3   85 LAN 8-7   135 LAN 13-1
36 SF 6-2   86 SF 9-5   136 LAN 13-0
37 LAN 6-5   87 LAN 9-6   137 SF 12-4
38 LAN 7-2   88 LAN 10-4   138 LAN 12-6
39 SF 6-4   89 LAN 10-0   139 LAN 13-4
40 LAN 7-3   90 SF 10-2   140 LAN 13-5
41 LAN 6-0   91 LAN 11-2   141 SF 12-5
42 SF 6-1   92 LAN 9-7   142 LAN 11-8
43 LAN 7-1   93 LAN 10-5   143 SF 13-1
44 SF 5-0   94 SF 9-0   144 SF 13-3
45 SF 7-6   95 LAN 11-3   145 LAN 11-7
46 LAN 7-4   96 SF 9-8   146 SF 12-0
47 SF 7-2   97 SF 10-1   147 SF 13-4
48 LAN 7-5   98 SF 10-3   148 LAN 10-9
49 LAN 8-2   99 LAN 11-1   149 LAN 12-7
50 SF 7-4   100 SF 10-4   150 LAN 14-2
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