Comparing WAR for Matt Kemp

Many people have expressed disappointment with Matt Kemp this season. They say he heavily regressed defensively and offensively, they even might claim that he's at replacement level and there have been calls for his replacement both in and out of the organization. A lot of it I believe is fueled by fangraphs and UZR which helps feed into the perception bias that Kemp has regressed to a replacement level player in 2010. I decided to check out two systems that use WAR to see if there agreement or disagreement on Kemp.

Fangraphs:

2006: -0.4
2007: 1.7
2008: 3.2
2009: 5.1
2010: 0.5

B-Ref(WAR uses baseballprojection.com and Sean Smith as their source)

2006: -0.6
2007: 1.3
2008: 3.0
2009: 5.8
2010: 2.0

The biggest difference is that Sean Smith’s system still sees Kemp’s defense as a positive, ranking him +2 for this year compared that to fangraphs who thinks that Kemp is the worst CF in the majors this year at -15.3 UZR.

One system ranks Kemp has having an average year, while the other thinks he’s near replacement level. Just goes to shows you the disagreements between systems, and putting too much stock into one set of numbers.

I personally am inclined to Sean Smith’s system since it doesn’t show the heavy defensive regression that fangraphs and UZR shows. Nobody goes from average to the worst fielder in the league with no tangible explanation.

Obviously Matt Kemp isn't having as good of a year in 2009. But he's still pretty damn valuable in the sense that he's been an average player for the Dodgers, and in essence not replaceable by any normal means.