August 11th, Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 11, 2010 12:44 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:30 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | PHI | C.Billingsley vs R.Oswalt | PHI | 56.90% | 57.77% |
Notes: Last nights 15-9 was huge for the Dodgers wild-card chances as the Phillies, Giants and Rockies all lost. Both Vegas and the simulator have the Phillies as moderate favorites as the Dodgers face the Phillies newest pitcher Roy Oswalt for the first time in a Phillies uniform. Hopefully, the Dodgers saved some runs for tonight. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. C.Billingsley total batters faced: 25.5
3. R.Oswalt strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
5. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 3.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 PHI 3-2 | 51 PHI 8-1 | 101 PHI 10-5 | ||
| 2 PHI 2-1 | 52 LAN 7-4 | 102 PHI 12-2 | ||
| 3 PHI 4-3 | 53 LAN 7-1 | 103 PHI 11-0 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 LAN 6-0 | 104 PHI 11-4 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 PHI 7-5 | 105 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 6 PHI 3-1 | 56 LAN 7-6 | 106 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 7 PHI 1-0 | 57 PHI 8-3 | 107 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 8 PHI 4-2 | 58 LAN 7-5 | 108 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-3 | 59 PHI 8-0 | 109 PHI 9-7 | ||
| 10 LAN 3-1 | 60 LAN 8-2 | 110 PHI 12-3 | ||
| 11 PHI 5-4 | 61 PHI 8-4 | 111 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 12 PHI 4-1 | 62 PHI 9-2 | 112 PHI 12-1 | ||
| 13 PHI 2-0 | 63 PHI 9-1 | 113 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-2 | 64 LAN 8-3 | 114 PHI 11-5 | ||
| 15 PHI 3-0 | 65 LAN 7-0 | 115 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 16 LAN 1-0 | 66 LAN 8-1 | 116 PHI 10-6 | ||
| 17 PHI 5-2 | 67 LAN 8-4 | 117 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 18 PHI 5-3 | 68 PHI 8-5 | 118 PHI 10-9 | ||
| 19 LAN 2-0 | 69 LAN 8-5 | 119 PHI 10-7 | ||
| 20 LAN 4-1 | 70 PHI 8-7 | 120 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-4 | 71 PHI 9-0 | 121 PHI 13-3 | ||
| 22 PHI 5-1 | 72 PHI 9-3 | 122 PHI 12-0 | ||
| 23 LAN 5-3 | 73 LAN 9-2 | 123 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 24 PHI 4-0 | 74 LAN 8-0 | 124 PHI 12-4 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-2 | 75 PHI 9-4 | 125 PHI 13-4 | ||
| 26 LAN 3-0 | 76 LAN 8-6 | 126 PHI 13-2 | ||
| 27 PHI 6-5 | 77 PHI 10-1 | 127 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 28 PHI 6-1 | 78 LAN 9-3 | 128 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 29 PHI 6-2 | 79 PHI 10-2 | 129 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 30 LAN 5-1 | 80 PHI 8-6 | 130 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 31 PHI 6-3 | 81 LAN 8-7 | 131 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 32 PHI 5-0 | 82 LAN 9-1 | 132 PHI 13-1 | ||
| 33 LAN 4-0 | 83 PHI 10-3 | 133 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-3 | 84 LAN 9-4 | 134 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-4 | 85 PHI 9-5 | 135 PHI 11-6 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-5 | 86 LAN 9-5 | 136 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 37 PHI 6-4 | 87 PHI 10-0 | 137 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-2 | 88 PHI 10-4 | 138 PHI 12-5 | ||
| 39 PHI 6-0 | 89 LAN 10-2 | 139 PHI 10-8 | ||
| 40 PHI 7-2 | 90 PHI 11-2 | 140 PHI 13-0 | ||
| 41 PHI 7-1 | 91 LAN 9-0 | 141 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 42 LAN 6-1 | 92 LAN 9-6 | 142 PHI 12-6 | ||
| 43 PHI 7-3 | 93 PHI 11-1 | 143 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 44 PHI 7-6 | 94 PHI 11-3 | 144 PHI 11-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 5-0 | 95 PHI 9-8 | 145 PHI 11-10 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-2 | 96 LAN 10-3 | 146 PHI 14-2 | ||
| 47 PHI 7-0 | 97 PHI 9-6 | 147 PHI 14-1 | ||
| 48 PHI 7-4 | 98 LAN 10-1 | 148 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-3 | 99 LAN 10-4 | 149 PHI 14-0 | ||
| 50 PHI 8-2 | 100 LAN 9-7 | 150 LAN 11-7 |
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Current Leaderboard
1. Humma Kavula 127
2. matthewmafa 92
3. Michael White 72
4. kinbote 55
5. fritts 53
6. Phil Gurnee 52
7. delias man 47
8t. MammothDodger 44
8t. keithc13 44
10. bucknellbruin 34
11. Xeifrank 30
12. Jesse S. 29
13. David Young 26
14. Eric Stephen 22
15. Boulder Dodger 19
16. Alex41592 16
17. mikeinsp 10
18. dsm9412 9
19. Ego Crusher! 8
20. G.Scott 7
21. lakersdodgersyankees4life 6
22. DannyDodger 5
23.. joey joe 3
= Kids Table =
24t. underdog 1
24t. dolger14 1
Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. C.Billingsley total batters faced: 25.5
3. R.Oswalt strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
5. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 3.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Unofficial Rules:
If you guess the game score correctly you get the number of points that the score was ranked in the table. If #49 LAN 7-3 is the score and you guessed it correctly, you get 49 points. If nobody guesses the score correct and the score falls within the Top 150 most common scores, then the three people who picked the score with the closest table ranking to the actual score and picked the correct team to win the game, win 5, 3 and 1 point(s). Adjustments are made if there is a tie. All game score guesses must be unique. If you guess the over/under questions correctly, you win 10 points. The over/under guesses do not need to be unique.
#24 Phillie 4 - 0
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. C.Billingsley total batters faced: 25.5
3. R.Oswalt strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 0.5
4. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
5. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 3.5
UUUUO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Humma is killing us by going against us
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
My plan all along
1. Root for the Dodgers, but find solace in a loss by maybe getting points in this thing
2. Bet the opponents every day. Fewer people bet the opps than the Dodgers, so as long as no one hits it, I’m much more likely to get the consolation points in a loss than a win.
3. Bet the same score every day. It’s baseball, so to actually try to guess a score is ridiculous. Bet the same number. I only needed it to hit once.
4. Hedge that bet with the over/under.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 11, 2010 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
123 LAN 12-2
OOUOO
Going for the lead!
Google before you Tweet. It's the new Think before you Speak.
- PHI 5-4 Philly will win Oswalt’s home debut but Dodgers will win series.
by squirrelmasterz on Aug 11, 2010 1:07 PM PDT reply actions
#13 PHI 2-0, UOOOU
Nobody guessed the final score correctly, but Humma Kavula got the over/under correct for 10 points. The 5-3-1 points go to…
5 – Alex41592 (PHI #18)
3 – Phil Gurnee (PHI #24)
1 – squirrelmasterz (PHI #1)
10 – Humma Kavula (over/under)
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