Un-Kemped Rally Thread
by Eric Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 5:58 PM PDT
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PrintDodgers trail 2-0 after 6 innings...
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Right.
I remember seeing you sign some comments with vr, Xei and thought it is a cool name
yeah, sometimes I put the vr on there, sometimes not. I am trying to break the habit. That’s why you sometimes see it.
xei - no dictionary results
that’s what i get
I'd guess China
though excuse me if I’m incorrect
None really. It’s just a totally made up name. I prefer to stay anonymous. It may have some Chinese sound to it, but not spelled like any chinese word that I know of. If it was xie instead of xei then maybe.
Oh that's totally fine.
Just was curious.
you can also unbreak your heart.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Correcting some wrongs
committed while I was away interviewing David Beckham.
-I shouldn’t have said Kevin Brown was in contention for worst Dodger. I just remember the lots of money, and being hurt often enough that there were grumbles. I forgot how good he was. I was like 13 anyway.
-Tommyblackjack, I’m glad you liked Scott Pilgrim. I feel like it explains this current generation so well, though it probably won’t ever gain Great Gatsby status.
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
Nice post
if only for the name drop.
How did the media session with Becks go? Was Posh there?
by Eric Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I was fantastic
Becks was super nice and really just a pleasure to be around as he was talking, with that, that accent, just, I wanna do that again real soon, in the locker room, yeah.
Posh however was not there, probably with the kids
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I heard tonight that Becks wouldn't play anymore with the Three Lions...
Louise Bourgoin: The hottest French actress I've ever seen <3
Yeah
that’s pretty much a given, I don’t think they really have need for him
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Agree
Capello doesn’t need Becks anymore… He has several players who can play at his position:
Lennon
Walcott
Wright-Phillips
Louise Bourgoin: The hottest French actress I've ever seen <3
he got asked
about what he was doing at the world cup, apparently he was brought on just to keep the players in good spirits
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
That's right!!!
So he plays for the Galaxy again?
Louise Bourgoin: The hottest French actress I've ever seen <3
yes
he’s still rehabbing from his surgery, but he should be back in September. Today was his first practice with the team, but he was kicking the ball around, looked to be getting back in form.
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Rockies and Dodgers
both in some trouble tonight. I doubt the Padres and Giants are too worried though.
Gibbons really struggling
his batting average is down to a paltry .500
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
Gameday all fucked up
Says Gamer made an out, then he’s at first
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
Agreed
In the way that my farts are a gas
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I give you gold in the form of the double entendre
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
if there is a time to go yard Kemp
it is now.
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
there is always hope with Brad LOLidge
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
Oswalt at 109 pitches
Leading off the 7th. Hopefully will be taken out.
That was clutch
had 0-2 count for a while. They walked Tulo intentionally to get to him after a wild pitch.
Break up the Diamondbacks
No team is hotter over the past 10 games and they are beating the Brewers once again.
The Orioles?
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
by angelofdeath on Aug 11, 2010 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish he was the manager of the do
Never mind
My first game http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198604280.shtml
I am convinced i will only be happy with the dodgers manager
If I am the manager
My first game http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198604280.shtml
Here in Baltimore, one local station has started to
call it “Bucky Ball”
I wanted to fucking puke when I heard that
by Greg Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Arizona Inning Summary
- J. Upton flied out to deep right center
- A. LaRoche homered to deep right center
- M. Montero homered to deep right
- M. Reynolds homered to deep left center
- S. Drew homered to deep right center
- G. Parra singled to shallow right
- D. Hudson sacrificed to catcher, G. Parra to second
Wow
Shades of September 18 2006
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
by angelofdeath on Aug 11, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow, Gibbons
To quote The Boss:
You ain’t a beauty but hey, you’re alright.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:20 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Would have been nice to see. Thanks again, TW.
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:24 PM PDT reply actions
As nice a guy as Mike Sweeney is
Siddown
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
Actually, my opinion is that Dave is correct. It was a poor article facts wise. I left my opinion of it at the <a href=""http://insidethebook.com/ee>Book Blog.
Except Cameron intentionally leaves out details
Trading for Milton Bradley? Given what the cost was, this was a perfectly reasonable gamble. Carlos Silva wasn’t going to make this team, and so the front office paid $3 million to add Bradley, a switch-hitter with a strong offensive track record.
The M’s traded Carlos Silva and $9 million for Milton Bradley. Reasonable gamble my foot, Bradley needed to be the star he was in 2009 to justify that.
Signing Jack Wilson? Not my favorite move, and I expressed concern about the injuries, but calling it a "multi-year deal" is not really being honest about the contract. Instead of picking up his one year, $8 million option, they signed him for $10 million over two years. He’d been worth $5 million or more every year but one since 2004.
Why is paying Jack Wilson 10 million better than 8 million? Why is signing Jack Wilson in the first place justifiable? How is he worth more than $5 million each year unless you really do believe that fangraphs is correct that each win in WAR is worth more than $4 million?
Casey Kotchman as #3 hitter? Again, not a factually correct argument. Kotchman hit 3rd against RHP for the first seven days, then moved down to 7th. He’s hit in the #3 spot only 20 times all season, most of which have come since the team gave up on the season.
Ian Snell as #3 starter? Another gamble, and maybe you can argue that the team should have known it wouldn’t have worked, but you can’t really blame the starting rotation for how the season has gone.
How about relying on Casey Kotchman to be your 1B in the first place to be mockable? That actually thinking Ian Shell can pitch and not lose his marbles?
Joe Pa may have written a bad article, but Cameron just comes off as a fan defending his team and can’t see how his GM put together a bad team.
Moves of a contender for a team that was outscored last year? We’ve covered this. Pythag record is useless, and using it is lazy analysis. The Mariners won a game or two more than they should have last year. They had every reason to believe that they had a chance to be decent this year.
I don’t like a stat so I’ll just mock it and claim its useless! Except when it actually works so I just look like an idiot.
We evaluate PLAYERS based on their component numbers (OBP, SLG, SB, HR, BB, SO, BABIP, UZR, etc). You evaluate TEAMS based on the sum of the players.
When you trot out pythag records, you are COMPLETELY throwing all that out, and instead relying SOLELY on team runs scored and allowed. That is, the timing of component numbers is the only thing you are focusing on, and the timing is the one thing that is least reproducible.
As I noted in the off-season, the Mariners OBP and SLG on the offensive side was virtually identical to the OBP and SLG on the defensive side.
That’s why pythag is lazy.
If all you have is teams runs scored and team runs allowed, then pythag is not useless.
If you have the player component numbers, then, yes, pythag, based on team runs scored and team runs allowed is useless.
I always enjoy the way Tom Tango explains things.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions
And as a counterarguement
- Patriot (see all posts) 2010/08/11 (Wed) @ 15:44
While Pythagorean comparisons with no other consideration might be lazy, the reliance by some in the saber community on WAR used in retrospect to evaluate a team is…I’m searching for the right word…strange?
It’s one thing to look at a team’s roster for the upcoming season and the projected WAR of each player, and using it to project their record for the upcoming season. Using WAR in retrospect is unwieldy at best, especially when it’s something like Fangraphs WAR which uses FIP for pitchers and UZR for fielders. These don’t necessarily match up to the actual interplay that occurred between pitching and defense, and the actual record we have about how many singles, doubles, etc. allowed by a team’s defense is never directly accounted for. Simply figuring a team’s runs created and runs created allowed and compute a pythagorean record (like the BP second/third-order W%s Bobby mentioned) utilizes that data and is easier to calculate.
If Fangraphs’s WAR said the 2009 Rays should have won 100 games, but they only win 90, where’s the difference?
When the Dodgers near .500 record is reflected because they only scored a couple of runs more than they have given up, how is that useless? Just because its a correlation, and not causation does not make a stat useless.
WAR is good for predicting going forward. It is better than using the pythag from the previous year. I think that is what should be focussed on. I don’t really see anyone stating that using WAR in retrospect/hindsite is a “golden arrow”.
vr, Xei
Except what Joe Pa was doing a retrospective on the 2010 and 2009 season.
There’s little actual prediction going on. Individual WAR seems okay, but then adding it up and claiming there’s a ‘Team WAR’ is where you lose me.
There is no Team above replacement stat made yet.
Each player has a projected WAR (with variance of course). Add those individual WARs together and you get a team projected WAR. If you have any questions, leave them on Tango’s blog and you will get very good answers – better than mine. Much of what is implemented in my simulator is from his book and discussions on his blog.
vr, Xei
But I can’t see how just adding up an individual player will actually add up to total wins.
What’s the standard divination? If its within 10 wins, how useful is that?
I will take your suggestion though.
There is variance no matter what
There is no method, none period, that will 100% correctly predict how many wins a team will get. If you could do that, you’d be the richest person in the world. But there are methods that are better than others, based on math and common sense.
Replacement level for a team is 48 wins approximately. You add all the projected WAR to that 48 total. Of course your WAR methodology must be correct. There is some guess work involved, but only on stuff like is Manny going to play 70% of the time or 50% etc…
And I'm not sure how WAR is good for predicting stuff if half of it is based on a 1 year defensive sample that everyone admits is suspect, and a wOBA which isn't adjusted for park factors.
When you’re trying to figure out year to year results, relying on something that varies so much is something I can’t just say is superior to something else.
I admit, I like Phythag because it’s easier to understand. But I also think WAR is flawed and its okay if you don’t think its trustworthy enough to use.
That is a bit of a strawman. Every reputable person uses more than one year sample for fielding, hitting, pitching etc… and adjusts for park. I know I do. Of course WAR is not perfect at predicting how a team will do. Just like nobody is perfect at telling you how many heads will come up on 5 coin flips.
vr, Xei
email me if you have questions. Can’t answer everything here (xeifrank@yahoo.com)
Busy at work now, will check email later tonight or tomorrow. This could be a long discussion. I need to find you all the links to read up on. I believe I have some of them listed at my blog.
You can't use pythag from a previous year, because no two teams are the same
I don’t get the point, pythag is the be all end all stat. It has the least bias of any stat alive and does not rely on any correlation but real data. It is just not that helpful in that two teams are never going to be the same. By the time you get a big enough sample size, the stat is not very helpful (e.g. the starting 2010 Dodger , the middle 2010 Dodger team, and the team that will end 2010 would all have a different pythag number.
7 straight scoreless outings for Jansen
to start his career.
Breaks his tie with Jeff Shaw for most consecutive 1+ IP scoreless outings in relief to start his LA Dodger career
LET'S GET KJ HIS FIRST WIN!
Seriously, Dodgers... HELP WANTED
by douchiedude on Aug 11, 2010 6:28 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
who in their right mind would believe it?
EVERYONE KNEW that was off the plate… WOW.
Seriously, Dodgers... HELP WANTED
KJ will get his first win as a dodger before oswalt does as a philly.
Seriously, Dodgers... HELP WANTED
I think it’s Phillie
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's go Andre!
clap clap clap clap clap
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
Ok
fuck this leadoff double then not doing shit, stuff.
Who would have thought this offense would do jack crap after scoring 15 last night…
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Oh, didn’t get the job. Back to square one.
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 11, 2010 6:36 PM PDT reply actions
Guo
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
by shaqfor3 on Aug 11, 2010 6:38 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
yeah...
is that a joke ? or are you going shopping
by super eville on Aug 11, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
can't
misjudge the value of a pair of Levi’s
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
can't
be any worse than an official Levi’s store. $50 minimum there
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
are you a preppy?
does anyone know what that means anymore?
by Greg Stephen on Aug 11, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
do they
make preppies in Arky?
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
They do
I am not one…..but they make em here.
Don Tyson has a plant beside a Chicken processing plant he uses for Preppies.
So
what are the posh areas of Arkansas? I’m legitimately curious.
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Maumelle, Chenal, Pleasant Valley
are all suburbs of LR. They would fall in the posh category.
Also “The Heights” in LR is pretty posh area
I shoulda figured
Little Rock would have posh suburbs. My mom was born in LR, donchaknow : )
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah
but their family were on Jim Crow era farms, that I assume got subdivided into posh ’burbs. Moved to LA just before the Watts riots, bad luck followed them like stink
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions
but
then she married a white dude and now we’re in the ’burbs! everything comes full circle : )
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I went into Macys and asked where the jeans were
and the lofty sales guy goes we have designer jeans or Levis type jeans, and I said, “yeah Levis” and he says, they are downstairs, takes a look at me and goes “you’ll find more on sale down there”.
Dick.
But they were on sale, got two different styles for under $70, so he was right, but still a dick.
So
pretend I’m 9 years old. Did the Dodgers play just as well as the Phillies, but got unlucky? Did the Dodgers pile a bunch of walks on top of the Phillies 6 hits? Or are those six Dodger hits just lucky punches?
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
I read that as
Bergesen hits two Indians, unfortunately
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 11, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
8-1 under showalter...
come on joe, step it up. he’s making you look foolish with 10x less talent.
Seriously, Dodgers... HELP WANTED
More likely the sound of “Rauuuuul”
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions
If Blanton's a lefty? No. RHP? Yes.
I can’t remember if he’s LHP or RHP.
by Taylor Maricle on Aug 11, 2010 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Blanton is fat
Also, righty
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
by angelofdeath on Aug 11, 2010 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha...
But who is the fatest MLB player??
I would say Broxton or Sherill…
Louise Bourgoin: The hottest French actress I've ever seen <3
He resembles a guy that could be Brad Penny’s brother.
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
We've got them right where we want them
by Christopher James on Aug 11, 2010 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I haz a sad
if we dont beat Blanton tomorrow.
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykhTIsGwwWg
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
Joe Torre will field the same lineup because he says they need to gel.
“Matt Kemp can just crown his own ass.”
shouldnt have used up all the run quota yesterday
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
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