Team Preview- Atlanta Braves; Broken Mirror Edition
by Michael White on Aug 13, 2010 12:14 PM PDT
in Team Previews
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PrintThe last time the Dodgers and Braves squared off the two clubs were the hottest in baseball. Both teams had finished May with an identical 20-8 record and had started June 2-0. The Dodgers and Braves would go on to split that series but the two clubs don't exactly resemble one another anymore. The Braves remain (relatively) comfortable in first place of the NL East while the Dodgers trail San Diego by 9 games in the NL West "race."
66-48, 1st place in NL East (Schedule and Results)
Scored 520 runs, Allowed 432 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 67-47
Season Series: Split 2-2
Position Breakdown:
1st Base: Troy Glaus is the veteran Southern California native who spent his first 7 season with the California Angels. Glaus has had a strange year. He was red hot in May and June posting an OPS of .942 and .870 and then dropped off the planet in July and August recording an OPS of .546 and .588. On the year, Glaus has a wOBA of .335.
2nd Base: Martin Prado is on the disabled list with a broken pinkie which is fortunate for the Dodgers since he was raking for the 3rd year in a row. The all-star Omar Infante has been able to fill in at second base. On the year Infante has a wOBA of .336 as a utility man.
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez came over from Toronto in a trade which sent Yuniel Escobar the other way. The 33 year old veteran has handled the bat well with a wOBA of .337 on the year. Gonzalez has always been considered to have plus defense.
3rd Base: Future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones is out for the season (possibly his career) and has been replaced by Brooks Conrad. Conrad seems to rate as an average defender, and has posted a wOBA of .359 in 116 plate appearances on the season.
Catcher: Brian McCann, the Georgia native, is probably my favorite non-Dodger. The unquestioned best hitting catcher in the NL is having another excellent season at the plate. The 26 year old McCann enters the series with a wOBA .378, 18 homeruns and an ISO of .210.
Outfield:
Melky Cabrera came over from the Yankees in the offseason and is capable of playing all 3 outfield positions. His outfield defense seems average to above average, but his struggles at the plate remain. Cabrera has posted a wOBA of only .308 on the season.
With Nate McLouth being an absolute disaster at the plate (wOBA of .254) and being optioned to AAA in late July, Rick Ankiel was aquired from Kansas City and is starting in CF. Ankiel is a below average fielder and has been off to a pretty slow start with Atlanta at the plate. On the season, Ankiel has a wOBA of .304.
Matt Diaz is a bench player who has been getting starts in LF. In 161 plate appearances, Diaz has a wOBA of .311. Omar Infante, being the utility man that he is, can also play some LF.
Jason Heyward has slowed down quite a bit since his Griffy start but the just turned 21 year old is still having a solid debut season. Just hold off on the HOF ballots for right now. His wOBA of .364 is still good enough for 4th place among RF in the NL. The multi-talented Heyward is going to be fun to watch for at least a decade.
Who knew back in May the Brave starting outfield in Aug would be Heyward/Ankiel/Cabrera or Diaz. What happened to McLouth? Dang.
Starting Pitching for our Series:
Game 1: The veteran Tim Hudson takes the mound in Game 1 against Hiroki Kuroda. While Hudson comes into the game with excellent superficial stats- 13-5 with an ERA of 2.24- his peripherals are lacking. Hudson enters the contest with an x-FIP of 4.11.
Game 2: Old friend Derek Lowe is pitching game 2 for the Braves. Lowe who is arguably one of the best free agent signings in recent Dodger history, hasn't had quite as much success with Atlanta. Lowe has been a bit unlucky on the year with an ERA of 4.40 compared to an x-FIP of 4.05.
Game 3: Jair Jurrjens has predictably come back down to earth this season after completely outperforming his x-FIP in 2009. In 2009, Jurrjens ended the year with an ERA of 2.60 compared to an x-FIP of 4.34. In 13 starts this season, Jurrjen's ERA is much more inline with his x-FIP at 4.16 and 4.58 respectively.
Game 4: Tommy Hanson gets the call in the finale against Chad Bilingsley
Bullpen:
Billy Wagner is the Atlanta closer and he's been able to accumulate 28 saves with an x-FIP of 2.69. Jonny Venters leads the bullpen in innings pitched and has posted an x-FIP of 3.16 on the season. Old friend Takashi Saito is having a great year. Saito has appeared in 45 games and has an x-FIP of 2.89.
Series Prediction:
Who cares? I think all of the holdouts who still believed the Dodgers were competing for a playoff spot were firmly converted with the disaster last night. I actually like the matchup for the Dodgers. Los Angeles has the better pitching staff and the Braves are a bit beat up.
I predict the teams will split the series 2-2.
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I predict
pain. Pain, neverending.
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
by nolander on Aug 13, 2010 12:16 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It speaks to me
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
For about a week
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
You are just trying to make us root against ourselves aren't you?
sadly, it is working
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
Braves lineup
Per beat writer David O’Brien / AJC:
Infante 2B
Heyward RF
Gonzalez SS
McCann C
Glaus 1B
Hinske LF
Conrad 3B
Ankiel CF
Hudson P
This is great
Series Prediction: Who cares?
Sounds like something Euker would have said in Major League II.
On the Giants/Royals trade
per Hank Schulman:
Giants will pay Guillen $250,000 for the rest of the season. Royals will get a low- to mid-level prospect
reading comments on MLBTR
Giants fans think as much of Sabean as Dodger fans think of Colletti.
by Tommy Blackjack on Aug 13, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
So what can we reasonably expect to be traded?
Lilly and Dotel?
I’m resigned that Theriot is going to be kept at $4 million next year, despite DeJesus waiting at triple-A and the team having a lot more holes left.
Lilly and Dotel will leave as FAs, not get traded.
by silverwidow on Aug 13, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
If they don't clear
you let the claiming team have them and dump the contracts. The players traded are a sunk cost. Plus both trades had cash coming to the Dodgers that I am assuming they get to keep – windfall!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
From the Business Week article
As allegations have flown back and forth like spitballs, efforts to settle the case have been unsuccessful, and Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Scott Gordon has raised the possibility that if the couple can’t reach an agreement, the Dodgers might have to be sold for no other reason than to pay their legal bills. A growing chorus of fans and columnists would like to see that happen.
Is that us and the TBLA staff?
I'd say every columnist in LA would be thrilled to see McCourt sell
they were never happy with him in the 1st place.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Gordon get a promotion / appoinment?
Last I checked, he wasn’t a judge (and Superior Court judges are elected), he was a commissioner. Commissioner Gordon is a name that sticks in the memory.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Broxton
Ought to showcase him in Atlanta for an off season trade to the Braves( and hope he executes)
he's a Georgia native
might be happy in Hotlanta
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
by Josie Becker on Aug 13, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Live action Bugs Bunny movie? Fuck that.
by Tripon on Aug 13, 2010 12:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Crazy talk - didn't they watch Bullwinkle
they ruined the greatest cartoon of my youth
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 13, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
What does that even mean?
Bugs Bunny CGI and everyone else live?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
dear God...poor guy..hope it goes well
Let’s Go Dodgers!, Meet Jonathan Broxton Sat. 8/21/10 11:30 – 1:00pm. at the AT&T Store Pasadena 3699 E Foothill Bl Pasadena, CA
I actually really like the guy and feel bad that he of all is having these problems.
I might go there to show him support….
My buddy ran into him twice at Ralphs in Pasadena. Broxton was getting bacon
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 13, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
It made me laugh. i am pretty sure both times were in the bacon area.
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 13, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
You hear that? That’s market bacon hitting the pan. Today a child is born unto us, and his name will be bacon
by Tommy Blackjack on Aug 13, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Billy Wagner insists he's retiring at the end of the year
How many guys give it up when they can still play as well as he’s playing?
People don't think it be like this, but it do.
Addendum up
When I first read the preview, I was thinking that is the worst OF we have written up. How are they in 1st place.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Hudson
How much of that difference between ERA and FIP/xFIP can be attributed to his high ground ball rate of 65%? How many double plays does Loney hit into today because of it? :)
vr, Xei
Loney
is hitting about .400 against him. Kemp too, with a HR
by Tommy Blackjack on Aug 13, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
time for Hudson to regress to the mean
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
I've been thinking the same thing for the past two months or so
hasn’t happened yet. I hope we can regress him a little bit.
I am too, but he has such great sink on his pitches that he gets bailed out by a million ground balls.
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Depends if anyone can get on base a head of him
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I know it was kind of mentioned above,
but where are Heyward and Hinske?
That would be like me doing a Dodgers preview and not including Ethier or Blake.
I’m not complaining and I know that the previews, recaps, etc. take a lot of work, but that is kind of a big thing to miss.
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
Did it work?
Didn’t you feel great about our outfield for a second.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Playing the hot hand again.
Same bullpen I assume. :)
Maybe just shuffle the bullpen order around a little today. :)
vr, Xei
Dodgers Lineup
Podsednik 7
Theriot 4
Ethier 9
Loney 3
Blake 5
Kemp 8
Carroll 6
Ausmus 2
Kuroda 1
where is Fookie? He was killing it a few weeks ago.
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
:(
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I feel bad because you didn’t know he’s on the DL, we all knew about Chipper, lol.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Well, there is a bit of difference between one of the better hitters of all time compared to Furcal, who most Braves fans hate. That, and I’ve been really busy with school and work lately.
"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."
"Oh man am I a woman?!"
by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
What does that have to do with this season, lol.
Furcal has been much better than Chipper this season.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
He's a Braves fan
why should he care who is the SS for the Dodgers. Did you know Eric Hinske has been playing more 1st base then Troy Glaus?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Also it looks as though you assume I took a shot at you
Which is definitely not the case.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
I was geniune when I said I felt bad
Because Eric took a shot right at him asking about Chipper after he unknowingly asked about Furcal.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Whenever I see
everyone getting worked up about Kemp being traded I read this
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0
and calm down.
Hard to believe that Torii Hunter is getting better at age 35. Did Abreu’s plate discipline rub off because he has his first double digit walk rate in his long career.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Andres Torres
If he can do it anyone can. We just have to find that anyone:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
some interesting stuff there
I didn’t realize how horrible Franklin Guttierez has been this year at the plate, or how great Carlos Gonzales has been. Andres Torres just makes me ill.
Cargo has a 4% walk rate and those ridiculous home/road splits. I’m really interested to see how he does next year, because both of those areas have to improve for him to stay at the level he is at. I’m with you on Torres. Thats just no fair to find a 32 year old off of the scrap heap and have him put up those numbers.
by UCLADodger32 on Aug 13, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Pay back for Marlon Anderson and Belliard
we don’t have much room to complain
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Come now
Burrell sucked for the Rays but before that he was a legitimate slugger. Marlon Anderson sucked his whole career until one Sept.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Belliard then?
Not that Belliard sucked but he probably played his best baseball ever for us last year
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
The payback for Belliard last year
is Belliard this year. ;)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
At least those 2 had had some level of success in the bigs. Torres was a career minor leaguer who has put in a freaking fantastic year.
by UCLADodger32 on Aug 13, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Had a nice year last year so there were signs
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Sure, but he was still a 31 year old with no track record of anything other than like 2 good years in the minors. Its just a crazy story.
by UCLADodger32 on Aug 13, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Kind of reminds me of what might have happened
if Victorino had never gotten a legit chance.
What Torres has done means we shouldn’t just throw out 28-30 year AAA performances.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I just think hes an anomaly. He’s another one who got a late start in baseball and took him a really long time to figure things out. Hes obviously extremely talented athletically, and he has just put it all together. Most 30 year olds that put up huge numbers dont get a chance for the reason thats its just so rare they every become anything more than bench players.
by UCLADodger32 on Aug 13, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Hes never had as good of an offensive year as Torres is having
by UCLADodger32 on Aug 13, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
But Beard had minor league power
Torres has posted two season in a tough hitters park a slug% > .500. His major league numbers this year and last are like his 2008 AAA season when he was with the Cubs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1488&position=OF
Xavier Paul will do this for the Tigers after we let him go.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 13, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dream Land...long term vision
Best thing that can happen for the Dodgers…take a longer range view of things
get younger and tie up Billz and Kemp longer term. Biggest upside and we gotta have some L-T homegrown players for the fans..but we can’t keep ‘em all. We are getting older and the farm is getting weaker. Selective pruning and investment would allow us to re-tool the franchise for the next several years. A couple of good trades, say a SP prospect for a 3b prospect and then a veteran like Brox or Ethier for prospects would straighten us out quickly while adding to the developing parts we have. Sands, Robby, Dejesus, Gordon and pitching. Longer term Kemp probably belongs in RF anyway.
Also let Torre walk and his whole crew. Go with a Wallach type…a guy who has worked with youth and knows the basics.
Clean house as the window for the core is about to close. Get busy living or get busy dying. The worst that could happen is more cheap veterans and sweeping the blemishes under the rug. But thats Ned’s mo,isn’t it.
Regime change….its not that hard, its just not gonna happen.
by megaballs on Aug 13, 2010 1:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Did you say regime change?
We should stage a coup!!!
Schaefer actually meets those qualifications
Also let Torre walk and his whole crew. Go with a Wallach type…a guy who has worked with youth and knows the basics.
Bob Schaefer has several seasons experience managing in the minors; he was Mattingly’s first professional manager. He was also the director of player development for Boston from ’94 to ’98, until he quit after a falling out with Dan Duquette.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
five seasons managing in the minors
’80, ’81 Yankees, ’83 and ’85 Mets, ’87 Royals
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I find it funny that the top pitchers over the last 3 years are so close in value
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2010&month=12
Yet the top hitters from the last 3 years are nowhere near each other in value:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2010&month=12
It’s crazy how amazing Pujols is.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
I was just going to rag you about using WAR
but hey, when you click on batting value the worst 3 year hitters are a hoot. I’d have guessed the bottom group but was a bit surprised to see Theriot in the bottom 10.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
So Yea, he's our starting 2nd baseman for the next two years. WOOOT
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
James Loney
Dead Last in batting value, for those who qualify.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2010&month=12
Great to see Ethier 3rd to last in UZR in that span as well..
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
rain before the game
are we gonna blow another big lead?
by Tommy Blackjack on Aug 13, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Read Plaschke
I finally read the article while waiting for a drink at a coffee shop. Aside from the throw away comment about Kemp not taking second base, I was really shocked by Plaschke. I know he normally bounces back and forth, but this was the highest type of praise I have heard about Kemp from Plaschke. Oh, and Stewart is pissed off.
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 13, 2010 2:12 PM PDT reply actions
It was generally a good article, I agree. I was just thrown for a loop by the whole blaming him for the 10th run not scoring thing.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 13, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Which is funny because Plashcke essentially did what his article was saying that others were doing and should not be doing.
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 13, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Cliff Lee
Saw this tweet from Victor Rojas, and checked Baseball-Reference.com to confirm, and yep:
Cliff Lee has faced 134 left-handers this season, and has walked none of them.
i wonder
if all this will be enough to earn him a second CYA.
by Tommy Blackjack on Aug 13, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions
He walked Adam Dunn last September 15, so the streak is up to 149.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 13, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
so far Adam Dunn has hit 4 home runs in 4 days for me in MLB the Show
by robotmadeofnails on Aug 13, 2010 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions
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