Friday The 13th, Dodgers vs Braves - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 13, 2010 2:01 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Braves using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 1:30 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | ATL | H.Kuroda vs T.Hudson |
ATL | 60.78% | 50.35% |
Notes: Not much to say after last nights fiasco. There is a rather large discrepancy between Vegas and the Simulator on tonight's win probability. This stems from Tim Hudson being what appears as the luckiest starting pitcher in all of baseball this year. He has an ERA of 2.24 but his FIP and xFIP are both slightly over 4. This is due to his unsustainable and amazingly lucky BABIP against of 0.235. Let's see if the Luck Gods take this day to smile down (or up) upon the Dodgers hitters today. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 99.5
3. Dodgers starting corner infielders total bases: 2.5
4. T.Hudson walks plus hits allowed: 6.5
5. Number of runs scored by both teams in the 6th inning: 0.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 ATL 3-2 | 51 LAN 8-2 | 101 ATL 11-2 | ||
| 2 ATL 2-1 | 52 ATL 6-0 | 102 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 3 ATL 4-3 | 53 LAN 8-3 | 103 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 ATL 7-3 | 104 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 LAN 7-6 | 105 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-3 | 56 LAN 8-4 | 106 ATL 10-0 | ||
| 7 ATL 3-1 | 57 LAN 8-1 | 107 ATL 9-7 | ||
| 8 ATL 5-4 | 58 ATL 7-5 | 108 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 LAN 7-0 | 109 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 | 60 ATL 8-3 | 110 ATL 10-6 | ||
| 11 ATL 4-2 | 61 LAN 8-5 | 111 ATL 11-1 | ||
| 12 ATL 1-0 | 62 ATL 7-0 | 112 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-1 | 63 ATL 8-2 | 113 ATL 11-4 | ||
| 14 LAN 5-3 | 64 ATL 8-1 | 114 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 15 ATL 4-1 | 65 LAN 9-2 | 115 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 16 ATL 2-0 | 66 LAN 9-3 | 116 ATL 11-3 | ||
| 17 LAN 5-4 | 67 ATL 8-7 | 117 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-2 | 68 ATL 8-4 | 118 ATL 12-2 | ||
| 19 LAN 1-0 | 69 LAN 9-1 | 119 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 20 ATL 5-3 | 70 LAN 8-0 | 120 ATL 12-1 | ||
| 21 LAN 2-0 | 71 LAN 9-4 | 121 ATL 11-0 | ||
| 22 ATL 5-2 | 72 LAN 8-6 | 122 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 23 LAN 5-1 | 73 ATL 9-2 | 123 ATL 10-9 | ||
| 24 ATL 3-0 | 74 ATL 8-5 | 124 ATL 10-7 | ||
| 25 ATL 6-5 | 75 ATL 8-6 | 125 ATL 11-5 | ||
| 26 LAN 3-0 | 76 ATL 9-3 | 126 ATL 12-4 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-2 | 77 LAN 9-5 | 127 ATL 12-3 | ||
| 28 ATL 5-1 | 78 ATL 8-0 | 128 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 29 LAN 4-0 | 79 LAN 10-3 | 129 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-3 | 80 LAN 10-2 | 130 ATL 10-8 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-4 | 81 LAN 8-7 | 131 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-1 | 82 ATL 9-1 | 132 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 33 ATL 4-0 | 83 LAN 9-6 | 133 ATL 11-6 | ||
| 34 ATL 6-3 | 84 ATL 9-4 | 134 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 35 ATL 6-2 | 85 LAN 9-0 | 135 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-5 | 86 LAN 10-1 | 136 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 37 LAN 5-0 | 87 ATL 10-3 | 137 ATL 13-3 | ||
| 38 ATL 6-4 | 88 LAN 10-4 | 138 ATL 11-7 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-2 | 89 ATL 9-0 | 139 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-3 | 90 ATL 10-2 | 140 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 41 ATL 5-0 | 91 LAN 10-5 | 141 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 42 ATL 6-1 | 92 ATL 9-5 | 142 ATL 12-5 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 ATL 9-8 | 143 ATL 13-1 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-1 | 94 ATL 9-6 | 144 ATL 11-10 | ||
| 45 ATL 7-6 | 95 ATL 10-4 | 145 ATL 12-0 | ||
| 46 LAN 6-0 | 96 ATL 10-5 | 146 ATL 13-2 | ||
| 47 ATL 7-2 | 97 LAN 10-0 | 147 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-5 | 98 ATL 10-1 | 148 ATL 13-4 | ||
| 49 ATL 7-4 | 99 LAN 9-7 | 149 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 50 ATL 7-1 | 100 LAN 11-3 | 150 LAN 11-8 |
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Over/Under Question
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 99.5
3. Dodgers starting corner infielders total bases: 2.5
4. T.Hudson walks plus hits allowed: 6.5
5. Number of runs scored by both teams in the 6th inning: 0.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
I like this new strategy. You only need it to work one time…. you probably have less of a chance at 5-3-1 points than I do but if you pay out big that’s war you can win. Especially if you can pick up O/U points. I like it!
By the way, last night, when the score was 7-2 with runners on base, I was thinking, oh crap, they’re gonna make this 8-4, aren’t they? Then they scored one and my stomach dropped out. Then they went up 9-2 and I was OK again. I was perfectly happy to see the Dodgers leading 9-2. Great.
Then the bottom fell out of the game and I got really angry again. The five points were no salve.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 13, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
#12 ATL 1-0, UUUUU
Nobody got the score correct.
Nobody got the over/under correct.
5-3-1 points go to…
5 – Humma Kavula (ATL #34)
3 – Alex41592 (ATL #42)
1 – mattewmafa (ATL #60)
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