August 14th, Dodgers vs Braves - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 14, 2010 12:08 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Braves using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | ATL | T.Lilly vs D.Lowe |
ATL | 55.95% | 54.01% |
Notes: The Dodgers are 1-3 so far on this road trip. The popular minimum threshold for number of wins on the road trip to stay in contention for the playoffs was 4-3, my minimum threshold was 5-2. The Dodgers won't likely win the three remaining games in Atlanta, but to some people this next game is a must win game. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total batters faced: 25.5
3. D.Lowe ground balls minus fly balls: 5.5
4. Braves runs minus Dodgers runs: 1.5
5. Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 ATL 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-1 | 101 ATL 10-5 | ||
| 2 ATL 4-3 | 52 LAN 8-3 | 102 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 3 ATL 2-1 | 53 ATL 6-0 | 103 ATL 11-1 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 ATL 7-5 | 104 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 5 ATL 5-4 | 55 LAN 8-4 | 105 ATL 11-3 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-3 | 56 LAN 8-2 | 106 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 7 LAN 2-1 | 57 ATL 8-3 | 107 ATL 10-0 | ||
| 8 ATL 3-1 | 58 ATL 8-2 | 108 ATL 10-6 | ||
| 9 ATL 4-2 | 59 LAN 6-0 | 109 ATL 11-4 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 | 60 ATL 8-7 | 110 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 11 LAN 3-1 | 61 ATL 8-1 | 111 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 12 LAN 5-4 | 62 LAN 8-5 | 112 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 5-3 | 63 ATL 8-4 | 113 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 14 ATL 4-1 | 64 ATL 8-5 | 114 ATL 10-7 | ||
| 15 ATL 5-2 | 65 ATL 7-0 | 115 ATL 12-2 | ||
| 16 ATL 1-0 | 66 LAN 8-6 | 116 ATL 11-0 | ||
| 17 ATL 5-3 | 67 LAN 8-1 | 117 ATL 12-4 | ||
| 18 LAN 5-2 | 68 LAN 9-3 | 118 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 19 ATL 6-5 | 69 LAN 8-7 | 119 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 20 LAN 4-1 | 70 ATL 9-3 | 120 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 21 ATL 2-0 | 71 ATL 9-2 | 121 ATL 10-9 | ||
| 22 LAN 6-3 | 72 LAN 9-4 | 122 ATL 11-6 | ||
| 23 ATL 3-0 | 73 LAN 7-0 | 123 ATL 12-1 | ||
| 24 ATL 5-1 | 74 LAN 9-2 | 124 ATL 11-5 | ||
| 25 ATL 6-3 | 75 ATL 8-6 | 125 ATL 12-3 | ||
| 26 LAN 6-4 | 76 LAN 9-5 | 126 ATL 10-8 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-5 | 77 ATL 9-1 | 127 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 28 LAN 1-0 | 78 ATL 9-4 | 128 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-2 | 79 ATL 9-5 | 129 ATL 12-5 | ||
| 30 LAN 2-0 | 80 ATL 8-0 | 130 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 31 LAN 5-1 | 81 LAN 9-1 | 131 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 32 ATL 6-4 | 82 LAN 9-6 | 132 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 33 ATL 6-2 | 83 ATL 9-6 | 133 ATL 11-8 | ||
| 34 ATL 4-0 | 84 LAN 10-2 | 134 ATL 13-3 | ||
| 35 LAN 7-3 | 85 LAN 10-3 | 135 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 36 ATL 6-1 | 86 LAN 8-0 | 136 ATL 12-0 | ||
| 37 LAN 3-0 | 87 ATL 10-2 | 137 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 38 ATL 7-6 | 88 ATL 9-8 | 138 ATL 13-2 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-4 | 89 LAN 10-4 | 139 ATL 11-7 | ||
| 40 LAN 6-1 | 90 ATL 10-3 | 140 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 41 ATL 5-0 | 91 ATL 10-1 | 141 ATL 12-6 | ||
| 42 LAN 4-0 | 92 ATL 9-0 | 142 ATL 13-4 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-2 | 93 LAN 10-5 | 143 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 44 ATL 7-2 | 94 LAN 9-7 | 144 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 45 ATL 7-4 | 95 ATL 10-4 | 145 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-5 | 96 LAN 10-1 | 146 ATL 13-1 | ||
| 47 ATL 7-3 | 97 ATL 9-7 | 147 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 48 ATL 7-1 | 98 LAN 10-6 | 148 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 49 LAN 5-0 | 99 LAN 9-0 | 149 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-6 | 100 ATL 11-2 | 150 ATL 14-1 |
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Comments
1. Humma Kavula 152
2. matthewmafa 93
3. Michael White 72
4t. kinbote 55
4t. Phil Gurnee 55
6. MammothDodger 54
7. fritts 53
8. delias man 47
9. keithc13 44
10. bucknellbruin 34
11. Xeifrank 33
12. Jesse S. 29
13. David Young 26
14. Alex41592 24
15. Eric Stephen 22
16. Boulder Dodger 19
17. mikeinsp 10
18. dsm9412 9
19. Ego Crusher! 8
20. G.Scott 7
21. lakersdodgersyankees4life 6
22. DannyDodger 5
23.. joey joe 3
= Kids Table =
24t. underdog 1
24t. dolger14 1
24t. squirrelmasterz 1
Most recent point scorers in blood.
Over/Under Question
Worth 10 points for getting all five questions correct.
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total batters faced: 25.5
3. D.Lowe ground balls minus fly balls: 5.5
4. Braves runs minus Dodgers runs: 1.5
5. Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
It is very likely that I will be stopped.
Kavula’s Folly will arrive on September 1 at the latest. It has been decreed, the fiat has been issued, and we are frantically preparing for the arrival.
Perhaps I will find time to come on here for a few minutes each day and log my 6-3 Opponents Win prediction. After all, I will need some distraction… True Blue seems like as good a place as any to be distracted.
However, I am likely fooling myself.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 14, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
(I think Eric might like this)
You’re fooling yourself if you don’t believe it,
You’re kidding yourself if you don’t believe it.
Get up, get back on your feet;
You’re the one they can’t beat and you know it.
Come on, let’s see what you’ve got;
Just take your best shot and don’t blow it.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Humma
You will be happy with your decision. My wife and I didn’t even think of another child until about 4 years after the first. Now that we have him, we couldn’t imagine it otherwise. All the best to you and feel free to take a break from the simulator contest. We mortals need a fighter’s chance!
#7 LAN 2-1, UUOUO
Nobody got the score correct.
David Young nailed the over/under for 10 points.
5-3-1 points go to.
5 – delias man (LAN #4)
3 – David Young (LAN #13)
1 – Mammoth Dodgers (LAN #22)
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