August 15th, Dodgers vs Braves - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 14, 2010 10:04 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Braves using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 9:45 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | ATL | V.Padilla vs J.Jurrjens |
ATL | 56.71% | 53.77% |
Notes: While, the Dodgers aren't quite yet facing mathematical elimination just yet, their season is on the brink. They need to win these last two games in Atlanta in order to string us along for another few more games. The simulator has the Braves as very slight favorites, and Vegas tacks on another 3% to the Braves win probability. Should be another close game. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total batters faced: 25.5
3. Dodgers bullpen total strikeouts: 2.5
4. Braves number of home runs hit: 0.5
5. Braves runs scored minus Dodgers number of extra base hits: 0.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 ATL 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-1 | 101 ATL 11-3 | ||
| 2 ATL 4-3 | 52 ATL 7-5 | 102 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 3 ATL 2-1 | 53 LAN 7-6 | 103 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 4 LAN 3-2 | 54 LAN 8-2 | 104 ATL 10-5 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 LAN 8-3 | 105 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 6 ATL 3-1 | 56 LAN 6-0 | 106 ATL 10-0 | ||
| 7 LAN 4-3 | 57 ATL 8-2 | 107 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 8 ATL 5-4 | 58 ATL 8-3 | 108 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 9 ATL 4-2 | 59 LAN 8-4 | 109 ATL 11-5 | ||
| 10 ATL 1-0 | 60 ATL 7-0 | 110 ATL 12-2 | ||
| 11 LAN 4-2 | 61 ATL 8-1 | 111 ATL 12-3 | ||
| 12 LAN 3-1 | 62 LAN 8-1 | 112 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 13 ATL 4-1 | 63 ATL 8-4 | 113 ATL 11-4 | ||
| 14 LAN 5-4 | 64 LAN 8-5 | 114 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 15 ATL 2-0 | 65 ATL 8-7 | 115 ATL 11-0 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 ATL 8-5 | 116 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 17 LAN 4-1 | 67 LAN 7-0 | 117 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 18 ATL 5-3 | 68 ATL 9-2 | 118 ATL 12-1 | ||
| 19 ATL 5-2 | 69 LAN 8-6 | 119 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-2 | 70 LAN 9-3 | 120 ATL 10-6 | ||
| 21 ATL 6-5 | 71 ATL 9-1 | 121 ATL 12-4 | ||
| 22 ATL 3-0 | 72 LAN 9-2 | 122 ATL 10-7 | ||
| 23 LAN 1-0 | 73 ATL 9-3 | 123 ATL 10-9 | ||
| 24 LAN 2-0 | 74 LAN 9-4 | 124 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-1 | 75 ATL 8-6 | 125 ATL 12-0 | ||
| 26 ATL 5-1 | 76 ATL 8-0 | 126 ATL 10-8 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-3 | 77 LAN 8-7 | 127 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 28 ATL 4-0 | 78 LAN 9-5 | 128 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 29 ATL 6-3 | 79 LAN 8-0 | 129 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-4 | 80 LAN 9-1 | 130 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-2 | 81 ATL 10-1 | 131 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 32 LAN 3-0 | 82 ATL 9-4 | 132 ATL 13-2 | ||
| 33 ATL 6-2 | 83 LAN 9-6 | 133 ATL 12-5 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-5 | 84 ATL 10-2 | 134 ATL 11-6 | ||
| 35 ATL 6-4 | 85 ATL 10-3 | 135 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 36 ATL 6-1 | 86 ATL 9-0 | 136 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 37 ATL 5-0 | 87 ATL 9-5 | 137 ATL 13-3 | ||
| 38 LAN 4-0 | 88 ATL 9-6 | 138 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-1 | 89 LAN 10-3 | 139 ATL 13-1 | ||
| 40 ATL 7-6 | 90 LAN 10-2 | 140 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 41 LAN 7-3 | 91 LAN 10-4 | 141 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-2 | 92 ATL 9-8 | 142 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 ATL 10-4 | 143 ATL 11-8 | ||
| 44 ATL 7-3 | 94 LAN 10-1 | 144 ATL 11-7 | ||
| 45 ATL 7-2 | 95 LAN 10-5 | 145 ATL 13-5 | ||
| 46 ATL 7-4 | 96 LAN 9-0 | 146 LAN 13-5 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-5 | 97 ATL 11-2 | 147 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 48 LAN 5-0 | 98 LAN 9-7 | 148 ATL 12-7 | ||
| 49 ATL 6-0 | 99 ATL 9-7 | 149 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 50 ATL 7-1 | 100 ATL 11-1 | 150 ATL 12-6 |
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Over/Under Question
1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total batters faced: 25.5
3. Dodgers bullpen total strikeouts: 2.5
4. Braves number of home runs hit: 0.5
5. Braves runs scored minus Dodgers number of extra base hits: 0.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Contest
Some time during the last month of the season, do we want to have some kind of weighted playoff favoring those at the top of the leaderboard, or do we just want to play out the rest of the season as we’ve been doing and crown the person with the most points as the champion? Thoughts?
Math for Dodgers being eliminated
Xel,
Any thought of doing a simulation of how many games the Dodgers can lose before being eliminated. Dodgers have 45 games left, I say they must win at least 33, which would give them 93 wins for the season. I t also means they can only lose 12 more games.
What kind of threshold are you looking at? How many games they need to win to have a 50% chance of making the playoffs? How many games they need to win to have a 1% chance of making the playoffs etc… ?
#9 ATL 4 -2
Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. V.Padilla total batters faced: 25.5
3. Dodgers bullpen total strikeouts: 2.5
4. Braves number of home runs hit: 0.5
5. Braves runs scored minus Dodgers number of extra base hits: 0.5
UOOOO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#139 ATL 13-1, OUOOO
Nobody got the game score correct.
Nobody got the over/under correct either.
5-3-1 points go to…
5 – matthewmafa (ATL #75)
3 – Humma Kavula (ATL #29)
1 – Alex41592 (ATL #26)
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