August 16th, Dodgers vs Braves - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 16, 2010 1:30 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Braves using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 1:15 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | ATL | C.Billingsley vs T.Hanson |
ATL | 59.18% | 56.29% |
Notes: Now that the Dodgers are playing out the string, look for them to start experimenting with some alternative strategies like bunting for one run in the first inning or playing the infield in in the third inning. These are signs of a team that has raised the white flag and given up on the season. Both Vegas and the Simulator are in pretty good agreement as to the likely outcome of Monday's game. Vegas is probably not factoring in all the new and wonderful strategies that the Dodgers coaching staff is throwing at the Braves. Anyways, remember to get your game score and over/under guesses in... it is not too late to catch "The Humster" on the leaderboard.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total pitches: 98.5
3. Innings that the Dodgers score in: 1.5
4. T.Hanson strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 1.5
5. Length of Dodgers losing streak at end of game: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 ATL 2-1 | 51 ATL 7-0 | 101 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 2 ATL 3-2 | 52 ATL 7-4 | 102 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 3 ATL 4-3 | 53 ATL 8-2 | 103 ATL 9-7 | ||
| 4 ATL 1-0 | 54 ATL 8-1 | 104 ATL 10-5 | ||
| 5 LAN 2-1 | 55 LAN 7-5 | 105 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 6 LAN 3-2 | 56 LAN 8-2 | 106 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 7 ATL 3-1 | 57 ATL 8-3 | 107 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 8 ATL 2-0 | 58 ATL 7-5 | 108 ATL 9-8 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 LAN 7-6 | 109 ATL 12-3 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-3 | 60 ATL 8-0 | 110 ATL 12-2 | ||
| 11 LAN 1-0 | 61 LAN 8-3 | 111 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 12 ATL 4-2 | 62 LAN 7-0 | 112 ATL 10-6 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-2 | 63 ATL 9-1 | 113 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 14 ATL 3-0 | 64 LAN 8-1 | 114 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 15 ATL 4-1 | 65 ATL 8-4 | 115 ATL 12-1 | ||
| 16 ATL 5-4 | 66 ATL 9-2 | 116 ATL 12-0 | ||
| 17 LAN 2-0 | 67 LAN 8-4 | 117 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-1 | 68 ATL 9-3 | 118 ATL 12-4 | ||
| 19 ATL 5-2 | 69 LAN 8-5 | 119 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 20 ATL 4-0 | 70 ATL 9-0 | 120 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-2 | 71 ATL 8-7 | 121 ATL 13-2 | ||
| 22 LAN 3-0 | 72 ATL 8-5 | 122 ATL 11-5 | ||
| 23 ATL 5-3 | 73 LAN 9-1 | 123 ATL 10-7 | ||
| 24 ATL 5-1 | 74 LAN 9-2 | 124 ATL 13-1 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-4 | 75 LAN 8-0 | 125 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 26 LAN 5-3 | 76 LAN 8-6 | 126 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-1 | 77 ATL 10-2 | 127 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 28 LAN 4-0 | 78 ATL 8-6 | 128 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 29 ATL 5-0 | 79 LAN 9-3 | 129 ATL 13-0 | ||
| 30 ATL 6-1 | 80 ATL 9-4 | 130 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 31 ATL 6-5 | 81 LAN 9-4 | 131 ATL 12-5 | ||
| 32 ATL 6-2 | 82 ATL 10-1 | 132 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 33 ATL 6-3 | 83 ATL 10-3 | 133 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-3 | 84 LAN 8-7 | 134 ATL 10-9 | ||
| 35 LAN 6-2 | 85 ATL 10-0 | 135 ATL 13-3 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-4 | 86 ATL 11-2 | 136 ATL 14-3 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-1 | 87 ATL 9-5 | 137 ATL 10-8 | ||
| 38 ATL 6-0 | 88 ATL 11-1 | 138 ATL 13-4 | ||
| 39 LAN 5-0 | 89 LAN 9-0 | 139 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 40 ATL 6-4 | 90 LAN 9-6 | 140 ATL 11-6 | ||
| 41 ATL 7-1 | 91 LAN 9-5 | 141 ATL 14-0 | ||
| 42 LAN 6-5 | 92 LAN 10-1 | 142 ATL 14-1 | ||
| 43 ATL 7-2 | 93 LAN 10-3 | 143 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 44 LAN 7-3 | 94 LAN 10-4 | 144 ATL 13-5 | ||
| 45 ATL 7-3 | 95 ATL 9-6 | 145 ATL 12-6 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-2 | 96 LAN 10-2 | 146 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 47 LAN 6-0 | 97 ATL 10-4 | 147 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-1 | 98 ATL 11-0 | 148 ATL 14-2 | ||
| 49 ATL 7-6 | 99 ATL 11-3 | 149 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-4 | 100 ATL 11-4 | 150 ATL 11-7 |
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Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total pitches: 98.5
3. Innings that the Dodgers score in: 1.5
4. T.Hanson strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 1.5
5. Length of Dodgers losing streak at end of game: 1.5
# 51 Atl 7 - 0
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total pitches: 98.5
3. Innings that the Dodgers score in: 1.5
4. T.Hanson strikeouts minus C.Billingsley strikeouts: 1.5
5. Length of Dodgers losing streak at end of game: 1.5
OUUOO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#3 ATL 4-3, OOOUO
Nobody guesses the score correctly.
Both Humma Kavula and Jose Becker got the over/under correct (10 points)
5-3-1 points go to…
5 – Xeifrank (ATL #23)
3 – Alex41592 (ATL #24)
1 – Humma Kavula (ATL #33)
JOSE Becker?
News we need to know about??
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Aug 17, 2010 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions
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