August 17th, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 16, 2010 10:30 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 10:15 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| COL | LAN | J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw |
LAN | 62.26% | 59.95% |
Notes: The Dodgers are solid favorites to take the first game of the series against the Rockies. There is not much at stake other than possibly third place in the NL West. Nobody expects the Dodgers to throw games or want to lose, but the Dodgers could benefit from a few extra losses down the stretch of the season to make sure their first round draft pick in 2011 is protected. But let's not go there quite yet. Jhoulys Chacin the Rockies pitcher has a solid K/9 rate of 9.73 in 82+ innings of work this year. But on the flip side he has a BB/9 of 4.15, so the Dodgers are likely to see an equal portion of flame throwing and wildness from the young Rockies pitcher. Kershaw is putting up similar numbers, albeit in a much larger sample size. Kershaw has a rather large difference between his FIP and xFIP due to a very low HR/FB of 5.5%. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw number of pitches: 107.5
3. C.Kershaw strikeouts minus Jhoulys Chacin strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of walks allowed by all Rockies pitchers: 4.5
5. Dodgers runs scored minus Rockies runs scored: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 COL 7-2 | 101 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 COL 7-1 | 102 LAN 9-6 | ||
| 3 LAN 1-0 | 53 LAN 8-0 | 103 COL 9-7 | ||
| 4 COL 2-1 | 54 COL 7-4 | 104 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-3 | 55 LAN 8-2 | 105 COL 9-8 | ||
| 6 COL 3-2 | 56 LAN 7-5 | 106 COL 10-5 | ||
| 7 LAN 3-1 | 57 LAN 8-3 | 107 COL 11-3 | ||
| 8 LAN 2-0 | 58 COL 7-5 | 108 COL 11-2 | ||
| 9 COL 1-0 | 59 COL 7-0 | 109 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-1 | 60 COL 7-6 | 110 COL 11-1 | ||
| 11 COL 3-1 | 61 COL 8-2 | 111 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 12 LAN 3-0 | 62 LAN 9-1 | 112 COL 11-4 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-2 | 63 LAN 9-0 | 113 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 14 COL 2-0 | 64 LAN 9-2 | 114 COL 10-6 | ||
| 15 COL 4-3 | 65 COL 8-3 | 115 COL 11-0 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-4 | 66 LAN 8-4 | 116 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 17 LAN 4-0 | 67 COL 8-1 | 117 COL 12-1 | ||
| 18 COL 4-2 | 68 COL 8-4 | 118 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 LAN 9-3 | 119 COL 12-3 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-1 | 70 COL 8-0 | 120 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-0 | 71 LAN 8-5 | 121 COL 12-2 | ||
| 22 COL 4-1 | 72 LAN 8-7 | 122 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 23 COL 3-0 | 73 COL 9-2 | 123 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 24 LAN 5-3 | 74 COL 9-1 | 124 COL 11-5 | ||
| 25 COL 5-3 | 75 LAN 10-2 | 125 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 26 COL 5-4 | 76 COL 9-3 | 126 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 27 COL 5-2 | 77 LAN 10-1 | 127 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 28 LAN 6-1 | 78 LAN 10-0 | 128 COL 10-7 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-2 | 79 LAN 8-6 | 129 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-0 | 80 COL 8-5 | 130 COL 12-4 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-3 | 81 COL 8-6 | 131 COL 13-2 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-5 | 82 COL 9-4 | 132 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 33 COL 5-1 | 83 LAN 9-4 | 133 COL 12-0 | ||
| 34 COL 4-0 | 84 COL 9-0 | 134 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 35 LAN 7-1 | 85 COL 8-7 | 135 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-4 | 86 COL 9-5 | 136 COL 10-8 | ||
| 37 COL 6-3 | 87 LAN 10-3 | 137 COL 11-6 | ||
| 38 COL 5-0 | 88 COL 10-1 | 138 COL 13-3 | ||
| 39 COL 6-2 | 89 COL 10-3 | 139 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 40 COL 6-4 | 90 COL 10-2 | 140 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 41 COL 6-5 | 91 LAN 11-2 | 141 COL 14-2 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-0 | 92 LAN 11-0 | 142 COL 13-1 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-2 | 93 LAN 11-1 | 143 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 44 COL 6-1 | 94 LAN 9-5 | 144 LAN 14-2 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-3 | 95 LAN 9-8 | 145 COL 13-4 | ||
| 46 LAN 8-1 | 96 LAN 10-4 | 146 LAN 14-0 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-6 | 97 COL 10-0 | 147 COL 13-5 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-4 | 98 LAN 11-3 | 148 COL 12-6 | ||
| 49 COL 6-0 | 99 COL 10-4 | 149 COL 13-0 | ||
| 50 COL 7-3 | 100 COL 9-6 | 150 COL 14-3 |
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Current Leaderboard
1. Humma Kavula 166
2. matthewmafa 98
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4t. kinbote 55
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7. fritts 53
8. delias man 50
9. keithc13 44
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23. DannyDodger 5
24.. joey joe 3
= Kids Table =
25t. underdog 1
25t. dolger14 1
25t. squirrelmasterz 1
Most recent point scorers in bold
Over/Under Question
1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw number of pitches: 107.5
3. C.Kershaw strikeouts minus Jhoulys Chacin strikeouts: 1.5
4. Number of walks allowed by all Rockies pitchers: 4.5
5. Dodgers runs scored minus Rockies runs scored: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
How about a new rule
Double points for picking a correct Dodger score. Call it the Kavula Kontrol., or some such thing.
Next 2 weeks I'm probably in
but as I say my attendance may be spotty after that. Kavula’s Folly is coming down the pike!
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 17, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Not sure that'd be fair.
Nobody else gets the don’t-show-up-but-get-to-play-anyway treatment. Lots of people haven’t been able to play for any number of reasons. I’ll just have to build up my lead and see what happens. :-)
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 17, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Besides, like I say, I'll need some distraction.
and maybe this will be it.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 17, 2010 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
#113 LAN 9-7
OUOUO
by the way I have no idea how points are scored or why I have 10
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
You got all five of the over/under questions correct last night, which is worth 10 points. Every once in a while I post the rules or partial rules in case we have any newbies joining us that day.
Get all five over/under questions correct = 10 points (guesses do not need to be unique)
Guess the final score with the correct team winning correct and you get the same number of points as the score is ranked in the table.
If nobody guesses the score correct and the score falls within the Top 150 on the list the three closest people to the “ranking” of the score in the table (while picking the correct team to win) get 5-3-1 points and this is adjusted accordingly if there are ties or less than 3 people who picked the correct team. Confused? I hope so. :)
So how well do teams perform after playing the night before on the East Coast
then coming home to play the next night against a well-rested opponent?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Dodgers sent Kershaw back early, so in our case I wouldn’t worry about it at all. But my guess is that the effect is minimal, unlike the NBA.
I knew about Kershaw
Slow bats due to fatigue and jet lag? Not sure what the offense’s excuse is for all the other games since the AS break though.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#30 LAN 6-0, UOOOO
Nobody guessed the correct final score.
Nobody got the over/under correct, but I somehow managed to get all five incorrect.
Points for coming closest to the score in the table.
5 – Mammoth Dodgers (LAN #31)
5 – keithc13 (LAN #29)
1 – Michael White (LAN #42)
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