FanPost

August 18th - Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 12:01 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 COL LAN J.Hammel vs H.Kuroda
LAN 56.90% 53.40%

 

Notes:  Not much of interest in today's game.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 101.5
3. Total runs scored in game after 5 full innings: 3.5
4. J.Hammel number of strikeouts: 4.5
5. Rockies total stolen bases: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 7-4   101 LAN 10-0
2 LAN 3-2   52 COL 7-0   102 LAN 9-6
3 LAN 4-3   53 COL 8-2   103 LAN 9-7
4 COL 2-1   54 LAN 7-0   104 COL 11-4
5 COL 3-2   55 LAN 8-2   105 COL 10-6
6 LAN 1-0   56 COL 8-1   106 COL 9-8
7 COL 3-1   57 COL 7-6   107 LAN 11-2
8 LAN 3-1   58 COL 7-5   108 LAN 11-1
9 COL 4-3   59 LAN 8-1   109 LAN 10-5
10 COL 1-0   60 LAN 7-5   110 COL 12-2
11 LAN 4-2   61 COL 8-3   111 COL 12-1
12 COL 4-2   62 LAN 8-3   112 COL 11-0
13 LAN 5-4   63 COL 8-0   113 COL 11-5
14 LAN 2-0   64 COL 8-4   114 LAN 11-3
15 LAN 4-1   65 COL 9-2   115 LAN 11-0
16 COL 2-0   66 LAN 8-0   116 COL 10-7
17 LAN 3-0   67 COL 9-1   117 COL 12-3
18 COL 4-1   68 LAN 8-4   118 COL 13-3
19 COL 3-0   69 COL 8-5   119 LAN 12-2
20 LAN 5-2   70 COL 9-3   120 LAN 11-4
21 COL 5-3   71 LAN 8-7   121 COL 12-4
22 LAN 5-3   72 LAN 9-2   122 COL 11-6
23 COL 5-4   73 LAN 8-5   123 LAN 10-9
24 COL 5-2   74 LAN 9-3   124 COL 10-8
25 LAN 5-1   75 LAN 9-1   125 LAN 12-3
26 LAN 4-0   76 COL 8-6   126 LAN 12-1
27 COL 5-1   77 COL 9-0   127 COL 12-0
28 LAN 6-5   78 LAN 8-6   128 COL 13-1
29 COL 4-0   79 COL 9-4   129 COL 11-7
30 LAN 5-0   80 COL 10-1   130 LAN 10-8
31 LAN 6-2   81 COL 10-2   131 LAN 12-4
32 LAN 6-3   82 COL 8-7   132 COL 13-4
33 COL 6-2   83 LAN 9-0   133 LAN 11-5
34 COL 6-3   84 COL 10-3   134 LAN 13-1
35 LAN 6-1   85 COL 9-5   135 LAN 10-6
36 COL 5-0   86 LAN 10-2   136 COL 12-5
37 COL 6-1   87 LAN 9-4   137 COL 13-2
38 COL 6-4   88 LAN 10-1   138 COL 11-8
39 LAN 6-4   89 COL 10-4   139 LAN 12-0
40 COL 6-5   90 LAN 10-3   140 LAN 10-7
41 LAN 6-0   91 COL 9-6   141 COL 13-0
42 LAN 7-2   92 LAN 9-5   142 LAN 13-3
43 COL 7-2   93 COL 10-0   143 LAN 11-6
44 COL 6-0   94 COL 11-3   144 COL 14-2
45 LAN 7-1   95 COL 11-2   145 COL 10-9
46 COL 7-1   96 LAN 10-4   146 COL 13-5
47 LAN 7-3   97 LAN 9-8   147 COL 12-6
48 COL 7-3   98 COL 11-1   148 COL 14-3
49 LAN 7-6   99 COL 9-7   149 LAN 13-2
50 COL 7-4   100 COL 10-5   150 COL 11-9
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