FanPost

August 19th, Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rockies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 COL LAN J.de la Rosa vs T.Lilly
LAN 58.33% 51.41%

 

Notes:  Vegas puts quite a bit more confidence on the Dodgers winning this game than does the simulator.  A closer look at the two pitchers shows why.  Jorge de la Rosa has been pretty unlucky so far posting an ERA of 4.99 alongside a FIP of 4.28 and an xFIP of 3.71.  Meanwhile, Ted Lilly is showing just the opposite as he enters today's game with an ERA (split between two teams) of 3.44, FIP of 4.41 and an xFIP of 4.35.  I am confident that the simulator number is more accurate, but as you know in this game, especially with the Dodgers, anything can happen.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. T.Lilly number of strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers team LOB: 6.5
4. J.De la Rosa batters faced: 26.5
5. Dodgers stolen bases plus Dodgers extra base hits plus Dodgers pitchers wild pitches: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 COL 8-2   101 COL 11-1
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 7-5   102 COL 11-3
3 LAN 4-3   53 COL 7-5   103 LAN 9-7
4 COL 3-2   54 COL 8-3   104 COL 9-8
5 COL 2-1   55 LAN 6-0   105 LAN 10-5
6 LAN 5-4   56 COL 7-6   106 LAN 10-0
7 COL 4-3   57 COL 8-1   107 COL 10-6
8 LAN 3-1   58 LAN 8-2   108 LAN 11-3
9 LAN 4-2   59 COL 7-0   109 LAN 11-1
10 COL 3-1   60 LAN 8-3   110 LAN 10-6
11 COL 4-2   61 COL 8-4   111 COL 11-5
12 LAN 1-0   62 LAN 8-1   112 COL 12-2
13 LAN 4-1   63 COL 9-2   113 COL 11-0
14 COL 4-1   64 LAN 8-7   114 LAN 11-2
15 COL 1-0   65 LAN 8-4   115 COL 12-4
16 LAN 5-3   66 COL 8-5   116 COL 12-3
17 COL 5-3   67 COL 9-3   117 LAN 10-7
18 COL 5-4   68 LAN 7-0   118 COL 10-7
19 COL 2-0   69 COL 8-0   119 LAN 11-4
20 LAN 5-2   70 LAN 8-5   120 COL 12-1
21 LAN 2-0   71 COL 9-1   121 LAN 10-9
22 COL 5-2   72 COL 8-6   122 LAN 12-2
23 LAN 6-5   73 COL 9-4   123 COL 12-0
24 COL 3-0   74 LAN 9-3   124 COL 13-2
25 LAN 3-0   75 COL 9-0   125 LAN 11-0
26 COL 5-1   76 LAN 9-2   126 LAN 12-3
27 LAN 6-3   77 LAN 8-6   127 COL 13-1
28 COL 4-0   78 LAN 9-1   128 COL 11-6
29 LAN 5-1   79 LAN 8-0   129 LAN 12-4
30 COL 6-2   80 LAN 9-4   130 COL 10-8
31 COL 6-3   81 COL 8-7   131 COL 12-5
32 COL 6-4   82 COL 10-3   132 LAN 11-5
33 LAN 6-4   83 COL 10-2   133 COL 11-7
34 COL 6-5   84 COL 9-5   134 COL 13-3
35 LAN 6-2   85 COL 10-1   135 LAN 11-6
36 LAN 4-0   86 LAN 9-5   136 COL 13-4
37 COL 6-1   87 COL 10-4   137 COL 10-9
38 COL 5-0   88 LAN 9-6   138 LAN 12-1
39 LAN 6-1   89 COL 9-6   139 COL 12-6
40 LAN 7-6   90 LAN 9-8   140 LAN 13-2
41 COL 7-2   91 LAN 9-0   141 LAN 10-8
42 LAN 5-0   92 LAN 10-2   142 LAN 13-3
43 COL 7-3   93 LAN 10-1   143 COL 13-0
44 LAN 7-2   94 COL 11-2   144 COL 13-5
45 COL 7-4   95 LAN 10-3   145 LAN 12-5
46 COL 6-0   96 COL 9-7   146 LAN 12-0
47 COL 7-1   97 LAN 10-4   147 COL 11-8
48 LAN 7-4   98 COL 11-4   148 LAN 11-10
49 LAN 7-3   99 COL 10-0   149 COL 14-3
50 LAN 7-1   100 COL 10-5   150 LAN 12-6
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