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Matt Kemp: Same player as he was last year?
by Nofatmike on Aug 19, 2010 5:11 PM PDT
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No player on the Dodgers has been the center of drama and controversy this season as much as Matt Kemp has. After hitting .297/.352/.490 in his first full season last year as the Dodgers' starting center fielder, many had high hopes that the 25 year old Kemp would increase his ascension into super stardom in 2010. This season, however, Kemp has been anything but stellar. Currently he is hitting .257/.314/.443 and has watched his wOBA drop by over 40 points. Fans, the media, coaches, and even manager Joe Torre have attributed Kemp's regression to everything from a lack of hustle, to "bone-headedness", to even his new girlfriend Rihanna. Yet one factor in Kemp's hitting that has been largely ignored is his Batting Average on Balls Batted In Play (BABIP). As you may well know, BABIP is often used to determine how "lucky" or "unlucky" a hitter is. This year Kemp's BABIP is .308, much lower than last season's .341 and his career BABIP of .350. Clearly Kemp is having poor luck this year, but how much is it affecting his production compared to years prior?
One such idea I came up with is to use a "three-year average." What I like to do is to take the average BABIP of a player's previous 3 years and see what a player would hit in the current season if his BABIP were that average instead. This is very much similar (in fact it's how I got the idea) to how economists factor out prices when comparing "nominal" to "real" GDP. This is often used to factor out the volatility inflation can have on production in an economy. Similarly, I use a three-year average to factor out the volatility a player's BABIP has on run-production at any given time. The reason I use a three-year average instead of "base years" (as most economists do) is for the sake of simplicity. And the reason why I don't use a player's career BABIP is due to large and small sample and the failure to capture trends (as hitters do tend to have "some" control over BABIP). Lets use an example:
Currently Mark Teixeira is hitting a line of .256/.362/.495. These numbers are far below his career line of .287/.377/.540, leading many people to wonder whether or not he's "declining." Yet his 2010 BABIP is currently .262, lower than any of the three seasons prior, and much lower than his career BABIP of .304. To figure out Tex's three-year average I take his BABIP of 2007, 2008, and 2009 (.339, .316, .302) and get a "real" BABIP of .319. Clearly this is well above his "nominal" BABIP of .262. Now how do we find the production Tex would have if his current production reflected his the "real" BABIP? First, I need to find out Tex's batting average. I take the number of at-bats (454) and subtract the number of HR (23) and SO (69) to figure out how many balls Tex has hit into play (342). I then multiply this number by his "real" BABIP to figure out how many "non-HR" hits Tex would have, and add this number to the amount of HR he has to get the total number of hits (136). I then take this number and divide by the total number of at-bats he has had to get his "real" batting average. To figure out his "real" OBP, I take the number of hits I've previously calculated and add his BB (69) and HBP (8) together and divide that number by the amount of PA (536) Tex has. To record his "real" SLG is even more simpler. I assume that Tex's ISO (.239) would stay constant and simply add that number to his "real" batting average, which I had calculated before. Thus Tex's 2010 "real" batting line looks something like this:
.298/.398/.537
This is what Teixeira's 2010 line would be if his BABIP were similar to that of the previous 3 years. This line is actually much better than his stated career line of .287/.377/.540, and is not too far off from his 2009 performance of .292/.383/.565. Therefore "luck" or lack thereof has had a lot to do with Mark Teixeira's performance in 2010.
Let's take another example. Currently Adrian Beltre is having one hell of a year for the Boston Red Sox. His 2010 "nominal" line of .328/.366/.568 is his highest since 2004, and is well above his career line of .274/.328/.461. However, Beltre's 2010 BABIP is a robust .344; well above his career BABIP of .294 and his three-year average of .290. So what's Beltre's real production line for 2010? Using the procedures described above we get this:
.282/.322/.522
These numbers are still better than his career or 2009 numbers, but they suggest that luck has also had a lot to do with his recent production surge.
So going back to our old friend Matt Kemp; how much has his "luck" hurt him this season? Well Kemp's BABIP the previous three years have been (.396, .361, .345) giving him a three-year average of .367. Using the procedures before we get this as Kemp's "real" 2010 line:
.291/.345/.478
This line suggests that Kemp's OPS is 19 points lower than 2009, indicating his performance has dropped off a little as his ISO has decreased a little while his SO have increased by over 21% from 2009. However, this line is still very much close to last year's numbers than his "nominal" line of .257/.314/.433, suggesting that Kemp really hasn't been as bad as his numbers would otherwise suggest. So perhaps Kemp's so-called "defenders" are right. Maybe Kemp isn't lazy or "bone-headed." Maybe he just needs to catch a break?
Edit:
Since people might ask for it, I'm going to post some "real" triple slash lines for several Dodger hitters:
Andre Ethier .318 "real" BABIP .293/.358/.502
Casey Blake .318 "real" BABIP .257/.329/.407
Rafael Furcal .325 "real" BABIP .293/.358/.469
James Loney .321 "real" BABIP .283/.333/.413
Russell Martin .338 "real" BABIP .258/.355/.343
Manny Ramirez .338 "real" BABIP .305/.399/.504
Scott Podsednik .326 "real" BABIP .283/.325/.368
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thank you
Now if only most people knew how to use stats…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 19, 2010 5:23 PM PDT reply actions
You make great points nofatmike. Although even as a huge Bison fan, the truth is probably a little bit in between. He’s not the same guy. The stat can’t explain the decline of his defense and base running – its a real bad year for him. I think he’s just human and he’s gotta figure it out like the rest of us. Anyone who had their own letdowns in difficult pressure performance can relate, like golf.
There is just zero perspective this year. It’s embarrassing me as a fan. He’s athletic, ripped, handsome, a little flamboyant, he’s dating a pop-star, and on top of that, his game is “cosmetically” unfriendly – his flaws are easy to spot when he strikes out, gets picked off, or misreads a flyball. I think all of this has made him a blank slate for the worst assumptions about athletes. The sad part is, the guy has not been involved in any negative off-the-field conduct or PEDs or a bad temper or being to jerk to teammates… NOTHING like that.
It makes you wonder about our recent history with some of the most talented black players in the game, despite being Jackie’s franchise. Eric Davis, Daryl Strawberry, Gary Sheffield, Milton Bradley, and now Matt Kemp. I hate playing the race card but I know there’s a latent bias (there is no overt hatred) in sports journalism. Something is wrong with this city. I joined like 50 “fire Ned” and" Frank, sell" facebook groups and half of the time there’s a comment that Matt Kemp is the antichrist. It’s sick.
You"ve hit on something there.
It’s definitely more of a “journalism” thing than an “LA.” Go on to DRay’s Bay and check out the fan post on B.J. Upton. Upton is having a way better season than Kemp is and yet he’s constantly criticized for being “boneheaded” or “lazy.” I even remember an article that was posted on BBTF a few months ago which showed that the overwhelming majority of players that were referred to as “lazy” or “lacked hustle” were African-American.
on the flip side
I don’t know why I have to go way back to 2003 to make a point but that was the year Paul Konerko, Pat Burrell, and to a lesser extent, Shawn Green fell off the cliff in terms of production. The TV guys would dutifully point out that they were struggling a bit but the sentiment was always the same – they were “gamers” who “tried to do too much with their swing”, but rest assured they were “working hard every day to figure it out in the cages”.
I think a big part of this is the manner in which they decline. Kemp’s bad year is filled with events you can point at and say, “See, that was stupid/horrible/lame etc….” Its not that what is happening to Kemp is necessarily rare, its just more memorable because we have clear images of his failures. If all he did was have a drop in BABIP or homeruns, he wouldn’t get nearly the attention he is because there is no way to make those declines into direct images. Russell Martin is a great example: he has obviously declined in power and general hitting ability since 2007, but you can’t show clips of Martin not hitting homeruns and say, “See, he sucks” because not hitting homeruns happens all the time.
With Kemp, remembering him trotting home from third instead of legging it, swinging at breaking pitches out of the zone, or getting picked off while looking into right field are all actual images people will look to and remember when discussing this season.
That would be a .265/.322/.452 line. Not as awesome as my projection showed me to me, but it’s definitely better than what he’s been posting this year.
However
Kensai made a great point one of the articles earlier that if Kemp’s LD% was equal to his career average, he’d have 12 more hits(with 15 more linedrives he hit.) He’d have an average above 280 at that point..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 19, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Simple Stats
Liked your analysis and sadly I do think there is a subtle race thing going on. When I analyzed last years stats versus this season a few things jump out:
Last year he had 25 DBLS, 7 3bls, and 26 HR’s. Last time I checked he had 21 DBL’s, 4 3bs and 19 HR’s.
It is very likely he hits or succeeds the doubles and equals HR’s or passes them, but probably not by allot. While K’s are always debated that does seem to me to be a problem. He had 139 all last year and already has 128. His walks are on pace to equal close to the 52 he had last year.
At the end of the day what my quick and dirty stats tell me along with the detailed work of the BAIP average is that Kemp with a little help has the potential to be a very good ball player a 30HR, 30 DBL player. This is not to be taken lightly. I wish I knew who could help him, but sadly i don’t think it is the current management staff.
your last sentence should read
“… but sadly I don’t think it is his current agent.”
I see nothing wrong with the way this staff manages him and coaches him. I do see his agent, Dave “racism, racism everywehre!” Stewart as a big problem.
by Seanny Rotten on Aug 21, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with nofatmike
He is doing just as poorly as other starters(Martin, Loney and Ethier, among the group), but Kemp has been the bashing bitch of the FO since May. Immediately following him blasting HR after HR, but then struggling?
Please, explain your ideas. It is the agent’s job to protect his client…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 21, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions
man
if only runs were scored with “real” triple line scores we’d be sitting pretty.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Aug 20, 2010 10:02 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Great Stuff - Like all the work you put into this
I’d promote this to front page if I’d caught it sooner and not have it get lost. I’d suggest people at least rec it so that it moves to the top of the rec’d fan posts.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
One that that has sort of been ignored is that the luck factor and the ensuing downturn in skill can be interrelated. For any player, especially someone like Kemp, hitting into some poor luck can be really frustrating. Early in the season, when everything hit was finding holes or the outfield bleachers, its easy to have confidence and bounce back after a strikeout or poor at bat (which he still had). Later on, when those ground balls were hit right at people and the fly balls were landing at the wall, its really easy to get frustrated and try to overcompensate, which can lead to more poor at bats and a poor approach at the plate. Who knows if this actually happened, but its something that i went through as a player, and can certainly be a factor in performance at any level.
that's why the quote
“half the game is 90% mental” makes sense lol
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 20, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions
"Clearly"
25 SO / 100 PA
Is not as good as
21 SO / 100 PA
That is not "real"ly as good.
I fucking hate manipulating statistics to make them match what you want them to be. You either do or don’t, that is the power of statistics. Taking one slice of the pie and manipulating it to mean what you want it to is BS.
OPS + 125 to 104, no fucking excuses.
Excuses are different than explanations. No one is trying to say Kemp is having a good year. The question is why he is having a bad year and can we expect him to turn it around?
Fuck yeah he is going to do better
Also, he isn’t doing any worse than average right now, so his worse is still not that bad.
It may turn out he may not have as a high of ceiling as we thought, if you want to do the three year moving average thing, take his OPS+ over the three years to see what type of player he will be (which just happens to be the same as his career OPS+). Those are all years he was in his prime. That would put him in the good but not great category.
The more data you have on a player, the more you have to accept that that data represents what that player can do.
His ceiling is
at a minimum of what he did last year. Near 300 average, near 30 HR, doubles and steals. GG defense, silver slugger. Pretty good ceiling. He did that in his 2nd year as a starter. The stats show he has been unlucky compared to his past performance…
And those years are in his prime, yes. But since when is 26 not your prime?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 21, 2010 2:05 AM PDT up reply actions
One statistic I would like to see in baseball...
,,, is whether there is a “Memo Paris” factor. In other words, when a talented player begins to date a “star,” what happens to his stats? While it’s probably not feasible to use Bump Bailey and Roy Hobbs as examples (since I don’t think their stats are easily accessible), there must be some players out there who had some production, then began to date someone of note. There might even be a correlation between the level of stardom of the significant other and the change in the level of performance by the player (and if Kemp is any indication, it’s not a positive correlation). Is this why Kemp’s LD% and BABIP have gone down? Hopefully someone will get right on this so we can be sure to steer Kershaw, Ethier, etc. away from the same mistake! :)
Less line drives, less infield hits
Last year Kemp had 25 infield hits but he only has 8 so far this year. If he had 12 more hits from LD% and 10 more infield hits he’d be hitting .301. So instead of saying he’s unlucky, we could say he’s slower and not squaring up the ball compared to last year.
I have a hard time believing that a 26 year old has gotten slower
Especially when you look at what his offseason regiment was…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 21, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
All of a sudden he’s getting less than half as many infield hits and getting caught stealing all the time so it seams like something has changed. I guess I mostly just wanted to point out that there’s no reason to assume that the change in BABIP is just luck.
by Dalton Paull on Aug 22, 2010 1:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't understand how you
can think that the random change in BABIP, that has been backed by his MLB time and MiLB time, is, what 40 something points lower, and you don’t think anything of it. Lack of infield hits is luck.. If you hit a ball sharply at the 3B, who are out. You hit a ball weakly up the line and you beat it out… base hit. It is luck, and the game is luck.
The caught stealing could be anything from just getting bad jumps to not paying attention. All Im saying is from a guy who tweeted “going to the gym” twice a day during the offseason, the same guy who posted videos of him on the treadmill, and the guy who was training with prospects at DS all summer, I doubt he got slower
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 22, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Is there a reason Kemp has had fewer line drives?
Is that something a player controls to any extent, or is it entirely luck, or some combination?
The Omar Moreno of this blog
A possibility is he may have gotten slightly
homer happy and made his swing slightly more fly ball oriented. Or it could be because of the slump, he is a mili second slower and isn’t squaring it up as well.
Or he is just getting unlucky.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 21, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
People always look for reasons other than luck
:o
There always HAS to be a reason.
No, there doesn’t.
I agree with that.
I would add this: we had better hope that it’s just luck, and just to be sure, it’s a worthwhile exercise to see if there has been any change to Kemp’s swing/approach and/or any correction he can make.
If it’s just luck, it’s just luck, and there’s always next year, but I would think Kemp would want to be sure. He has millions riding on it.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
by Humma Kavula on Aug 23, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
There has been a skill switch but
people trying to discredit random variation through all types of half-assed non-empircal based analysis is generally pointless.
Granted, i’ll gladly do my part in the off-season with swing comparisons.
by Chad Moriyama on Aug 23, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
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