FanPost

August 20th, Reds vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CIN LAN H.Bailey vs C.Monasterios
LAN 53.27% 48.68%

 

Notes:  With the win against the Rockies Thursday night, the Dodgers upped their chances of winning the NL West from 0.45% to 0.46%.  The Dodgers are making a pitching change, as Carlos Monasterios is making a spot start for the injured Vicente Padilla.  Vegas odds are not out yet, but the simulator pegs the Reds as slight favorites Friday night.  It will be interesting to see where the Vegas odds come in at.  The odds have been updated.  The Dodgers open as a slight favorite to beat the Reds.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. Dodgers team LOB: 6.5
3. H.Bailey number of strikeouts: 4.5
4. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
5. Number of relief pitchers used for the Dodgers: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 CIN 8-2   101 LAN 9-7
2 LAN 4-3   52 LAN 5-0   102 CIN 11-4
3 LAN 2-1   53 LAN 7-2   103 CIN 11-1
4 CIN 3-2   54 CIN 8-3   104 CIN 11-2
5 LAN 5-4   55 CIN 8-1   105 LAN 10-5
6 CIN 4-3   56 CIN 8-4   106 LAN 9-0
7 CIN 2-1   57 LAN 7-1   107 CIN 10-7
8 CIN 4-2   58 CIN 7-0   108 LAN 10-7
9 CIN 3-1   59 LAN 8-3   109 CIN 11-5
10 LAN 4-2   60 LAN 8-7   110 LAN 11-3
11 LAN 3-1   61 CIN 8-5   111 LAN 10-6
12 LAN 6-5   62 CIN 9-3   112 LAN 11-2
13 CIN 5-4   63 CIN 9-2   113 CIN 11-0
14 CIN 4-1   64 LAN 6-0   114 LAN 10-9
15 CIN 5-3   65 LAN 8-2   115 LAN 11-4
16 CIN 5-2   66 LAN 8-5   116 CIN 12-1
17 LAN 1-0   67 LAN 8-4   117 CIN 12-3
18 LAN 5-3   68 CIN 8-6   118 CIN 12-2
19 LAN 5-2   69 CIN 9-1   119 CIN 11-6
20 LAN 4-1   70 CIN 9-4   120 LAN 11-5
21 CIN 3-0   71 LAN 8-6   121 CIN 12-4
22 CIN 5-1   72 CIN 8-7   122 LAN 10-0
23 CIN 6-3   73 CIN 8-0   123 CIN 10-8
24 CIN 6-5   74 CIN 9-5   124 LAN 11-6
25 CIN 6-4   75 LAN 9-3   125 LAN 10-8
26 CIN 1-0   76 LAN 8-1   126 LAN 11-1
27 CIN 2-0   77 CIN 10-3   127 LAN 12-2
28 LAN 6-3   78 LAN 7-0   128 CIN 13-3
29 CIN 6-2   79 LAN 9-2   129 CIN 10-9
30 LAN 2-0   80 CIN 10-2   130 CIN 12-5
31 LAN 6-4   81 LAN 9-4   131 LAN 12-1
32 CIN 4-0   82 CIN 9-6   132 LAN 12-3
33 CIN 6-1   83 LAN 9-5   133 LAN 12-4
34 LAN 5-1   84 CIN 9-0   134 CIN 11-8
35 LAN 7-6   85 LAN 9-8   135 LAN 12-5
36 LAN 3-0   86 CIN 10-1   136 CIN 12-6
37 LAN 6-2   87 CIN 10-4   137 CIN 12-7
38 CIN 7-2   88 LAN 9-6   138 LAN 11-8
39 CIN 7-3   89 CIN 10-5   139 CIN 12-0
40 CIN 7-4   90 CIN 9-7   140 CIN 11-7
41 CIN 5-0   91 LAN 10-2   141 CIN 13-2
42 CIN 7-1   92 LAN 9-1   142 LAN 11-0
43 LAN 6-1   93 LAN 8-0   143 CIN 13-4
44 CIN 7-5   94 CIN 11-3   144 CIN 13-1
45 LAN 7-4   95 CIN 10-0   145 LAN 13-3
46 LAN 7-3   96 LAN 10-4   146 CIN 13-5
47 LAN 4-0   97 CIN 10-6   147 LAN 11-7
48 CIN 6-0   98 LAN 10-3   148 CIN 14-2
49 CIN 7-6   99 CIN 9-8   149 LAN 13-4
50 LAN 7-5   100 LAN 10-1   150 CIN 12-8
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