FanPost

August 2nd, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SD LAN C.Richard vs H.Kuroda LAN 57.08% 57.65%

 

Notes:    The Dodgers still have a little sliver of a chance at making the playoffs.  To have any realistic shot at winning the NL West they will need to sweep the Padres.  Joe Torre and the Dodgers bats need to be "all in" this series.  No 40+ pitch outings from Broxton in any of the first two games.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored in game: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda number of pitches: 105.5
3. C.Richard number of strikeouts plus A.Gonzalez total bases: 7.5
4. Dodgers runs minus Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 0.5
5. Padres bullpen earned runs allowed: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 7-0   101 LAN 10-5
2 LAN 2-1   52 SD 7-1   102 SD 10-6
3 LAN 4-3   53 LAN 8-1   103 SD 9-7
4 SD 3-2   54 LAN 7-5   104 LAN 9-7
5 SD 2-1   55 SD 7-5   105 SD 9-8
6 LAN 3-1   56 LAN 8-3   106 LAN 11-4
7 LAN 4-2   57 SD 6-0   107 LAN 12-2
8 LAN 5-4   58 SD 7-6   108 SD 11-2
9 LAN 1-0   59 LAN 9-1   109 LAN 11-0
10 SD 4-3   60 SD 8-2   110 LAN 10-6
11 SD 3-1   61 SD 8-3   111 SD 11-4
12 SD 4-2   62 SD 8-4   112 SD 11-3
13 LAN 4-1   63 LAN 9-2   113 LAN 11-5
14 LAN 5-2   64 LAN 8-0   114 SD 11-5
15 LAN 2-0   65 LAN 8-4   115 SD 10-0
16 SD 1-0   66 LAN 8-5   116 SD 10-7
17 LAN 5-3   67 SD 8-1   117 SD 11-1
18 LAN 3-0   68 SD 7-0   118 LAN 10-7
19 SD 4-1   69 LAN 9-3   119 LAN 12-3
20 SD 2-0   70 SD 8-5   120 LAN 12-1
21 SD 5-4   71 LAN 8-7   121 LAN 11-6
22 LAN 5-1   72 SD 9-3   122 SD 12-2
23 SD 5-3   73 LAN 10-2   123 LAN 10-9
24 LAN 6-5   74 SD 8-6   124 SD 12-4
25 SD 5-2   75 LAN 9-0   125 SD 12-3
26 LAN 4-0   76 LAN 9-4   126 SD 12-1
27 SD 3-0   77 LAN 8-6   127 SD 10-8
28 LAN 6-3   78 SD 9-1   128 LAN 12-4
29 LAN 6-1   79 SD 8-0   129 SD 11-6
30 LAN 6-2   80 SD 9-2   130 LAN 12-0
31 SD 5-1   81 LAN 10-3   131 LAN 13-3
32 LAN 6-4   82 SD 8-7   132 LAN 13-1
33 LAN 5-0   83 SD 9-4   133 SD 10-9
34 SD 6-3   84 LAN 10-1   134 SD 11-8
35 SD 6-4   85 LAN 9-5   135 LAN 10-8
36 SD 4-0   86 LAN 9-6   136 LAN 13-2
37 SD 6-2   87 LAN 10-4   137 LAN 12-5
38 SD 6-5   88 SD 9-6   138 SD 11-0
39 LAN 7-1   89 SD 9-5   139 SD 12-5
40 LAN 6-0   90 LAN 9-8   140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 11-1   141 LAN 13-0
42 LAN 7-3   92 LAN 11-2   142 LAN 12-6
43 SD 6-1   93 LAN 10-0   143 SD 11-7
44 LAN 7-4   94 SD 10-2   144 SD 12-6
45 LAN 7-6   95 SD 10-3   145 LAN 14-0
46 SD 5-0   96 LAN 11-3   146 LAN 13-5
47 SD 7-3   97 SD 10-1   147 SD 13-1
48 SD 7-2   98 SD 9-0   148 SD 12-0
49 SD 7-4   99 SD 10-4   149 SD 13-3
50 LAN 8-2   100 SD 10-5   150 LAN 14-2
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