With The Dodgers, Bet The Under
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 12:33 PM PDT
in Dodgers Game Previews
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PrintAs the Dodgers head into their second game with the Reds tonight, odds are it will be a low-scoring affair. The Dodgers have combined wonderful pitching and a nearly nonexistent offense into the second fewest runs per game since the All-Star break:
| Lowest Scoring Games Since All-Star Break | ||||
| Team | Gms | RS | RA | Runs/Gm |
| Mets | 34 | 99 | 130 | 6.74 |
| Dodgers | 35 | 107 | 134 | 6.89 |
| Oakland | 32 | 119 | 103 | 6.94 |
| Seattle | 34 | 105 | 142 | 7.26 |
| Atlanta | 34 | 153 | 114 | 7.85 |
| San Francisco | 35 | 143 | 132 | 7.86 |
There have been a total of five runs or less scored by both teams combined in 18 of 35 Dodger games since the All-Star break.
Chad Billingsley heads to the mound in his fifth attempt at his 10th win of the season. He has allowed six total runs in the previous four starts, over 25 2/3 innings, but has fallen victim to pour run support. In two of the games, the Dodgers didn't score a run, and in the other two the Dodgers scored a total of four runs. In both games, Billingsley left the game in or after the seventh inning with a lead, only to see it blown by the bullpen.
Johnny Cueto has been the Reds best starting pitcher this season. He's 11-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 4.36 xFIP. In his last 10 starts, he has been even better, going 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA. However, he hasn't pitched since August 10. He was suspended for seven games for his role in the brawl with the Cardinals earlier this month.
Get your guesses in for Xeifrank's game simulation here.
Game Time: 7:10 p.m.
TV: KCAL
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This is terrible. They run the offense through Durant who settles for jumpers way too much. They have no shooters (except for Gordon) and they don’t move without the ball.
They look completely lost.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Tell me what a backcourt of Derrick Rose and Westrbook does for you?
Westbrook has no business on this team.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I never really saw the roster of team USA's
Boy. Very few shooters, if any.
by Julio Nievas on Aug 21, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Especially if Curry is hurt. You basically have Gordon, and well Gordon. Billups is the starting SG.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Billups, Curry, Gordon, Durant, and maybe Granger are the only legit shooters.
That’s bad.
by Julio Nievas on Aug 21, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
And LIT is doing what everybody will do. Pinching down and daring USA to shoot jumpers.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
This is a horrible format for him. And Durant for that matter. At least Durant can get hot as a shooter.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking of sponsors
Will we see something similar in the NBA, MLB, NFL, and NHL sometime in the next decade?
by Julio Nievas on Aug 21, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
For those looking for something to watch this afternoon
Galaxy v. San Jose on Fox Sports West, I’ll be sitting in this thread: http://losangeles.sbnation.com/2010/8/21/1635234/rosters-for-galaxy-versus#comments
How would you define your approach to management, apart from being brilliant?
or watch some baseball
Hawaii v Georgia in LLWS
by MammothDodger on Aug 21, 2010 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Dave Cameron says Matt Thornton is the best lefthanded reliever in baseball
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/looking-at-the-ba-best-tools-survey/#comment-225514
I disagree! Thornton only has a better strikeout rate (11/9 to 12/9) and barely a better walk rate (3.15/9 to 2.85/9), and Kuo beats him in every other major category (HR/9, WHIP, LOB%, OPBA, ERA, FIP) except xFIP, but I’ve already talked before about how I don’t agree with it’s methods.
Basically, the Dodgers have almost nothing, let us at least have the title of best lefty relief pitcher, lol.
Ok, I’m bored stuck here at work on a Saturday, this is what happens.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
You may have talked about it, but xFIP is more descriptive than all the other metrics you throw out.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Doesn’t xFIP basically say that all pitchers should have the same homerun rate? I don’t believe that is anywhere near true.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
No. It normalizes the HR/FB ratio which accounts for pitchers in different parks.
That explains why Kuo has the better HR rate but not better xFIP.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't even know where i'd find that info.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Wait a minute, so Thornton beats Kuo in K/rate, BB/rate, and xFIP and you are arguing Fangraphs position?
That’s just being a homer.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Kuo has a better ERA by over a full point (ERA is not the best point but it’s still worth something) and a better WHIP by .35 points. He’s got a better FIP by almost .25 points as well. That outweights a better k rate by 1 batter per 9 innings for ks and about a third of a batter walked more per 9 innings.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
No it doesn’t. WHIP and ERA are meaningless if you use FIP and xFIP. The reason Thornton has the inferior ERA and FIP is because Kuo is getting luckier with the HR ball.
You know that those other metrics are inferior, you are only championing them now because they support the Dodger.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Meaningless? Walks and hits given up per inning is meaningless? That's rich.
I am also a believer that some pitchers are better at not giving up hits as well. A friend use to tell me that everything but a walk, a strikeout, and a homerun given up by the pitcher is all chance. I STRONGLY disagree. A pitcher cannot control his defense, but by pitching an inside fastball to a hitter you are telling me the pitcher can’t attempt to coerce the hitter to get jammed and hit a weak ground ball to the opposite side? Obviously that doesn’t work out every time, but stuff like this exists.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Hits are a function of BABIP. If you understand why FIP is good that means you understand why WHIP is lacking. Walks are adequately accounted for in FIP so I don’t see why you would even use WHIP.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
FIP is better than WHIP, I agree. But I still believe hits allowed is a good measure of a pitchers talent, which is why I still take WHIP into some regard.
As for Kuo, his WHIP isn’t as low as it is because of a great infield defense behind him.
Dewitt has a -6.8 UZR for the year.
Carroll has a -1.2 UZR
Blake has a -0.5 UZR
Furcal was very good with a 6.7, but he’s only played 76 games this year.
Loney has a 1.2, which is just above average (though he’s better at scooping balls than most 1b)
The point is his hits are down because of a brilliant infield defense, and god knows our outfield defense hasn’t been saving hit after hit for him. He’s got the ability to make hitters ground the ball out or make them fly out harmlessly.
This season Kuo has a 34 GB percentage, 51 FB percentage, and of that %18 are infield flys.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
xFIP is supposed to be a pitchers normalized HR rate
Why should a HR rate be normalized? Some pitchers are just better at not giving up homeruns. Some pitchers just give up a ton of homeruns. It’s just how it is. Even with the better K and BB rate, Thornton still has a worse FIP, but you’re telling me by xFIP that Thornton all of a sudden becomes a much, much better pitcher than Kuo? Yeah, not buying it.
That goes for any player on any team.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
To start with pitchers play in different parks.
Is a HR in Coors the same as a HR in San Francisco?
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
If the ball is just barely hit out, likely not
But what are the percentage of balls that just barely made it out? There are a ton of homeruns that would be gone in any park.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Do your own research if you want to make that argument.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
You made the lazy assessment that they are not the same parks, but you don’t actually know how many homeruns just barely make it out of each park and how many are no doubters, then you are making an assumption that you really don’t know all that much about, except that ATT is labeled a pitchers park and coors a hitters park.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Hasn’t park factors been proven by now? Do I really need to lay out the fundamentals of why certain parks are pitchers parks compared to others?
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
The balls that just make it out isn’t really something a pitcher can control, just like flyouts to the track. Over time roughly 11-12% of fly balls will be homers.
Just because it doesn’t happen over the small sample of a relievers innings doesn’t make it untrue.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 1:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
With the parks I'm not talking about Kuo or any pitcher in particular
Just that I actually am curious of how many warning track shots in ATT would make it as homeruns in coors, etc…
I think I will take a look later tonight at the homerun tracker site and see if I can find anything.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Also have to factor in atmosphere
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 2:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Over time the number of HR/FB will be roughly the same
For just about everyone. The problem with xFIP is that it doesn’t seem to account proeperly for infield flies.
Pitchers that give up a ton of IF FB will rightfully have lower HR/FB rates. But other than that xFIP is pretty good.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 1:36 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Ok, let’s say I am willing to say that over time everyone’s hr rate should be about the same. But like you said, the problem is that it doesn’t take into account infield flies. I posted the numbers for Kuo a few minutes ago, and he’s got a 34% GB rate, 51% FB rate, and of those fly balls 18% of them are infield flies. That’s a very, very high number of harmless fly balls he allows.
I remember people talking about a stat that encompasses infield flies in it, but I think it’s behind a paysite for baseball prospectus or some site like that?
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
tERA
FanGraphs has it for starters and relievers for free on their profile pages under “Batted Ball”.
2010
Kuo: 1.62
Thornton: 3.06
CAREER
Kuo:2.93
Thornton: 3.71
The answer is Kuo. Thornton is pretty good, not great as Kuo is.
Do we have any IT experts here?
I have a question. I want to stream music to my phone. I found a program (subsonic) that will let me do that… but…
I have a router that I am using as a firewall. Subsonic requires me to poke a hole in the firewall by setting up a static IP address and allowing port forwarding on port 80.
I found an article on how to do it, and though some of this stuff is out of my league, I can follow the directions easily enough… but…
Question: is there any security risk in doing this? Any reason why I shouldn’t?
The Omar Moreno of this blog
port 80 is usually ok
but I’m not a security buff.
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
I guess this will be Team USA’s strategy. Create defensive turnovers and get transition points.
We’ll see how that holds up against better squads.
This team will struggle if they don’t kill it in transition. Not a lot of shooters, and not a great post scoring team. Even Love and Odom are stretch 4’s, and Chandler can’t shoot.
They really need Curry back.
I also don’t understand why Rose, Rondo, and Westbrook are all on the team – way too many duplicative skill sets.
If Curry is healthy Westbrook will get cut. He’s a less skilled Rondo.
It’s funny, if Kaman hadn’t defected to Germany, he would have been a perfect Center for this squad since he can play in the post and commands a double.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm with Simmons
There’s no reason for Howard not to be playing. None.
They should have kept Javele McGhee, not sure why he was axed.
Agree on Kaman.
Mike, how could you forget?
Chandler > Kaman
Love > Kaman
by Julio Nievas on Aug 21, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Even if Team USA and the Dodgers lose
This Mariotti news has made today a winner.
Unfortunately our best unit only has four players?
by The Dude Abides on Aug 21, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
True enough. And I guess if that’s the game plan to play lock down defense and score in transition it will work.
I’d love for there to be at least 1 big man who could score in the post, but oh well. Hope the team doesn’t get too cold shooting jumpers against Spain.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
The way the other FIBA teams play D against us
is the same way smart NBA defenses play against the Heat next season. Zone and more zone. Force Wade and Ledouche to work the ball around the perimeter.
by The Dude Abides on Aug 21, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Completely agree, though Miller will be able to counter that for Miami.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
The way the other FIBA teams play D against us
is the same way smart NBA defenses play against the Heat next season. Zone and more zone. Force Wade and Ledouche to work the ball around the perimeter.
by The Dude Abides on Aug 21, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
MLB network
is now doing LLWS games?
It doesn’t matter, its almost impossible to watch it.
Matt Kemp - Bringer of drought, puncher of babies faces(ugly ones killed on site), not Larry Bowa's GUY
thanks
Got it, no audio. Just bad strike zones.
Matt Kemp - Bringer of drought, puncher of babies faces(ugly ones killed on site), not Larry Bowa's GUY
???
i always remember he was horrible RHB….
That Josh Bell guy looks like he's going to be pretty good
Cliff Lee ain’t chopped liver. The Orioles must have a really good farm system, to nurture and develop a good young hitter like Bell. Hopefully for that star-crossed organization’s sake, they don’t do something stupid like trading him for a relief pitcher who only hits 90 on the gun but has a bunch of saves, or some scrappy middle infielder with no power.
by The Dude Abides on Aug 21, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Bell's taters
Josh Bell may have gone deep twice today,but no doubt Sherrill will strike out Joey Votto with the bases loaded to save the game ….or maybe he won’t.
Reds Lineup
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez C
Janish SS
Cueto P
@johnfayman: #Reds lineup: Phillips 4, Stubbs 8, Votto 3, Rolen 5, Gomes 7, Bruce 9, Hernandez 2, Janish 6, Cueto RHP
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:05 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
They don’t have a precinct on site, so no :)
But many other beat writers are talking about JM, and they don’t have frowns on their faces. :)
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
The schadenfreude on Twitter from other writers today is astounding.
by Michael White on Aug 21, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Many are reveling in the fact that Mariotti wrote a column calling for LeGarrette Blount to go to jail for punching the Boise State player.
I believe I juse overheard the JM news being broken to Vin Scully.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Rosenthal reports
Manny will be activated and in the lineup tonight.
Rosenthal just tweeted that Manny is getting activated tonight, and in the lineup. Nobody in the press box here knows about it. I will head down to the clubhouse in a few minutes
Will Manny be able to crack the lineup with Scotty Pods
or does Matt Kemp sit down?
Because we know that Pods and Theriot are hittin 1 and 2
Dodgers lineup with 100% more 99: Theriot 2B Ethier RF Manny LF Gibbons 1B Kemp CF Blake 3B Ausmus C Bills P
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:49 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
So, so much for Carroll leading off, like Torre said only yesterday. I dunno, has Torre ever done what he said he’s going to do? Why doesn’t he just say “I’m not sure yet, but I’m thinking of…” [whatever he’s not going to do in the end]. He just looks like a fool this way, if anyone cares. It’s clear that until he has to make a decision, his mind is either open or absent, so why pretend otherwise? No one says he has to know for sure when some media guy asks him.
14 guys listed for BP
So it looks like a pitcher will go for Manny when announced.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:51 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Don't want Gibbons getting all staley
on the bench.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man
Dodgers Lineup
Theriot 2B
Ethier RF
Manny LF
Gibbons 1B
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
Carroll SS
Ausmus C
Bills P
Weaver also here BTW
No word on a transaction
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 3:55 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
My money is on Jansen
Just a guess. Has options, pitched 2 innings Friday, 11 days until rosters expand.
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 4:04 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
AL MVP – Josh Hamilton – .356/.407/.624
Salary: 3.25 mils
One advantage of him taking his time to get to the majors is that the Rangers are going to get his best prime years very cheaply. Here was a guy that didnt play at all 2003, 2004, 2005…then had 50ABs in 2006 at Class A.
He gets clean for the 2007 season and makes the major leagues..rest is history.
Its amazing his natural talent never really left him.
I’d venture to say there’s never been a player out of the game for that long still make the majors with the kind of success he’s had.
Cubs, Rays, Reds have to be kicking themselves, though the Reds got Volquez for him.
Will this evenings
Game thread be named "Return of the Man(ny)?
Hopefully it will mark the reutrn of
In play(runs)
by SeanMillerSavior on Aug 21, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Jim Bowden really wants Carl Crawford playing left field for the Dodgers in 2011
We just told Carl Crawford that he would look great in LF next year for Dodgers after Manny leaves via FA..finally it’s not called tampering.
Frank McCourt should put “CRAWWOOD” sign in LF at Dodger Stadium to replace “MANNYWOOD” sign….Carl Crawford belongs in LA!!!
Why would Bowden really want Crawford in LA so much?
Is Bowden an LA fan?
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
As always I forgot about Castro. LOL
by Eric Stephen on Aug 21, 2010 4:30 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Dodgers make the easiest and smartest move
Could not believe all of the people mashing their hands on what to do with the remaining roster spot. DFAing Castro made the most sense….Perhaps a sign of smart management to come.
Dodgers over/under numbers since the all-star break
I may or may not be missing a few games but my quick and dirty calculations show that since the All-Star break the Dodgers have truly been a great “under” bet as Eric states.
Overs: 12
Unders: 23
That information makes me sad
I wonder what the the unders and overs for our opponents in that span is.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Not sure I understand the question. You are wondering what each teams over/under record is? Or just certain teams? I have all the data, but of course doing every team is a lot of work.
All teams against us in that time span
It’s cool, I was just thinking out loud, no need to do any extra work for me.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
"The president is choking on my gas bladder; what an honor."
(\/) (°,,°) (\/)
Randy Winn haunts old team
Winn homers off Timmy for the first run of the game. St. Louis up 1-0. You have to love it!
Maybe just maybe, manny may be the spark this yahoos need to get shit going. One can only hope.
by Skunkburner on Aug 21, 2010 5:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Hey guys, don't worry!
It’s not just our pitching staff. McDonald has walked the Mets pitcher in both at bats today.
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