FanPost

August 22nd, Reds vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:05 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 CIN LAN B.Arroyo vs C.Kershaw
LAN 57.45% 64.89%

 

Notes:  Dodgers look to put some more hurt on the Reds.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Kershaw total batters faced: 27.5
3. C.Kershaw number of strikeouts: 6.5
4. Dodgers total runs minus Reds total runs: 1.5
5. Dodgers number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 8-3   101 CIN 10-3
2 LAN 3-2   52 CIN 7-3   102 CIN 10-4
3 LAN 4-3   53 LAN 7-5   103 LAN 12-0
4 LAN 1-0   54 CIN 7-2   104 CIN 10-1
5 LAN 3-1   55 LAN 9-2   105 CIN 9-7
6 CIN 2-1   56 CIN 7-4   106 LAN 12-2
7 CIN 3-2   57 LAN 9-1   107 LAN 10-6
8 LAN 2-0   58 CIN 7-5   108 LAN 12-3
9 LAN 4-1   59 CIN 7-1   109 LAN 9-7
10 LAN 3-0   60 LAN 8-4   110 CIN 10-5
11 LAN 4-2   61 CIN 7-6   111 LAN 11-6
12 LAN 5-4   62 LAN 9-0   112 LAN 13-1
13 CIN 4-3   63 CIN 6-0   113 CIN 9-8
14 LAN 4-0   64 LAN 9-3   114 LAN 11-5
15 CIN 3-1   65 LAN 8-5   115 LAN 13-2
16 LAN 5-2   66 CIN 8-4   116 CIN 10-6
17 CIN 1-0   67 CIN 8-3   117 CIN 11-2
18 LAN 5-1   68 CIN 8-2   118 CIN 11-1
19 CIN 4-2   69 CIN 8-1   119 LAN 10-9
20 LAN 5-3   70 LAN 10-0   120 LAN 13-3
21 LAN 5-0   71 LAN 10-1   121 CIN 11-4
22 CIN 2-0   72 LAN 8-7   122 LAN 13-0
23 LAN 6-2   73 CIN 7-0   123 CIN 10-8
24 LAN 6-1   74 LAN 9-4   124 LAN 12-4
25 CIN 4-1   75 LAN 10-2   125 CIN 10-0
26 CIN 5-4   76 CIN 8-5   126 CIN 11-3
27 LAN 6-5   77 LAN 10-3   127 CIN 10-7
28 CIN 5-3   78 LAN 8-6   128 LAN 10-7
29 LAN 6-0   79 CIN 9-2   129 LAN 12-5
30 LAN 6-3   80 LAN 11-1   130 CIN 12-3
31 CIN 5-2   81 CIN 8-6   131 CIN 12-2
32 CIN 3-0   82 LAN 9-5   132 CIN 12-5
33 LAN 7-1   83 CIN 9-3   133 CIN 10-9
34 LAN 6-4   84 CIN 9-4   134 CIN 11-5
35 LAN 7-2   85 CIN 8-7   135 CIN 11-0
36 CIN 5-1   86 CIN 9-1   136 CIN 11-8
37 CIN 6-3   87 CIN 9-5   137 LAN 14-0
38 LAN 7-0   88 LAN 10-4   138 LAN 14-1
39 CIN 6-4   89 LAN 11-2   139 CIN 11-6
40 CIN 6-5   90 CIN 8-0   140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-3   91 LAN 11-3   141 LAN 14-2
42 CIN 4-0   92 LAN 11-0   142 LAN 10-8
43 CIN 6-2   93 LAN 9-8   143 LAN 11-7
44 LAN 7-4   94 LAN 10-5   144 LAN 11-10
45 LAN 8-1   95 CIN 10-2   145 CIN 13-3
46 LAN 8-0   96 CIN 9-0   146 CIN 12-1
47 LAN 7-6   97 LAN 11-4   147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 8-2   98 LAN 9-6   148 CIN 12-4
49 CIN 6-1   99 CIN 9-6   149 LAN 14-3
50 CIN 5-0   100 LAN 12-1   150 CIN 11-7




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