August 24th, Dodgers vs Brewers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 24, 2010 2:01 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Brewers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 1:45 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | MIL | T.Lilly vs D.Bush |
LAN | 56.14% | 49.95% |
Notes: The simulator has this game as a tossup. Vegas on the other hand will be riding Lilly's hot streak enough to make the Dodgers a moderate road favorite against the Brewers. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
4. D.Bush total batters faced: 25.5
5. Extra base hits from Dodgers starting outfielders: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 MIL 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-3 | 101 LAN 10-2 | ||
| 2 MIL 4-3 | 52 LAN 7-2 | 102 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 3 MIL 5-4 | 53 MIL 7-0 | 103 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 4 MIL 2-1 | 54 LAN 4-0 | 104 LAN 10-4 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 | 55 MIL 8-1 | 105 MIL 11-0 | ||
| 6 LAN 4-3 | 56 MIL 8-7 | 106 MIL 11-5 | ||
| 7 MIL 4-2 | 57 MIL 8-4 | 107 MIL 10-7 | ||
| 8 MIL 3-1 | 58 MIL 8-5 | 108 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 9 MIL 6-5 | 59 MIL 9-2 | 109 MIL 12-1 | ||
| 10 MIL 5-3 | 60 MIL 9-3 | 110 MIL 12-3 | ||
| 11 MIL 5-2 | 61 LAN 5-0 | 111 MIL 12-2 | ||
| 12 MIL 4-1 | 62 LAN 7-1 | 112 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 13 LAN 4-2 | 63 LAN 8-3 | 113 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 14 LAN 2-1 | 64 LAN 8-5 | 114 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-4 | 65 LAN 8-4 | 115 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 MIL 9-4 | 116 MIL 10-8 | ||
| 17 MIL 5-1 | 67 MIL 8-6 | 117 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 18 LAN 3-1 | 68 MIL 9-1 | 118 MIL 12-4 | ||
| 19 MIL 6-3 | 69 LAN 8-2 | 119 MIL 11-6 | ||
| 20 MIL 6-2 | 70 MIL 8-0 | 120 MIL 10-9 | ||
| 21 LAN 5-2 | 71 LAN 8-6 | 121 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 22 MIL 6-4 | 72 MIL 10-2 | 122 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 23 MIL 1-0 | 73 LAN 8-7 | 123 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 24 LAN 4-1 | 74 MIL 9-5 | 124 MIL 12-5 | ||
| 25 MIL 6-1 | 75 LAN 6-0 | 125 MIL 13-3 | ||
| 26 LAN 6-5 | 76 MIL 10-3 | 126 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 27 MIL 2-0 | 77 MIL 10-1 | 127 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 28 MIL 3-0 | 78 MIL 9-8 | 128 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 29 MIL 4-0 | 79 LAN 8-1 | 129 MIL 11-7 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-4 | 80 LAN 9-3 | 130 MIL 13-2 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-3 | 81 MIL 10-4 | 131 MIL 11-8 | ||
| 32 MIL 7-6 | 82 MIL 9-0 | 132 MIL 12-0 | ||
| 33 MIL 7-2 | 83 LAN 9-4 | 133 MIL 13-1 | ||
| 34 MIL 5-0 | 84 LAN 9-2 | 134 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 35 MIL 7-3 | 85 MIL 9-6 | 135 MIL 12-6 | ||
| 36 MIL 7-4 | 86 LAN 7-0 | 136 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 37 LAN 5-1 | 87 LAN 9-6 | 137 MIL 13-5 | ||
| 38 MIL 7-1 | 88 MIL 10-5 | 138 MIL 11-10 | ||
| 39 LAN 6-2 | 89 MIL 11-2 | 139 MIL 13-4 | ||
| 40 MIL 6-0 | 90 LAN 9-5 | 140 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 41 LAN 1-0 | 91 MIL 11-3 | 141 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 42 LAN 2-0 | 92 LAN 9-1 | 142 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 43 MIL 7-5 | 93 MIL 9-7 | 143 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 44 MIL 8-2 | 94 LAN 9-7 | 144 MIL 12-7 | ||
| 45 MIL 8-3 | 95 MIL 10-0 | 145 MIL 14-4 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-4 | 96 MIL 10-6 | 146 MIL 13-6 | ||
| 47 LAN 3-0 | 97 MIL 11-4 | 147 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 48 LAN 7-6 | 98 MIL 11-1 | 148 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-5 | 99 LAN 10-3 | 149 MIL 13-0 | ||
| 50 LAN 6-1 | 100 LAN 8-0 | 150 MIL 14-2 |
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Over/Under Question
10 points for guessing all five over/under questions correctly.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
4. D.Bush total batters faced: 25.5
5. Extra base hits from Dodgers starting outfielders: 1.5
# 67 MIL 8 - 6
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Number of innings the Dodgers score in: 2.5
4. D.Bush total batters faced: 25.5
5. Extra base hits from Dodgers starting outfielders: 1.5
OUOUO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#136 LAN 12-3
OOOUO
Bonus points for predicting that James Loney pitches?
80 percent of my job is getting other people to do theirs.
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