FanPost

August 25th, Dodgers vs Brewers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Brewers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN MIL H.Kuroda vs R.Wolf
MIL 52.61% 47.45%

 

Notes:  On paper the Dodgers appear to have the starting pitching advantage in game number two of their series against the Brewers.  Hiroki Kuroda has put together a nice little season (3.48 / 3.41 / 3.68), while Randy Wolf one year removed from pitching for the Dodgers has ran into some trouble this year (4.67 / 5.13 / 5.00).  The Dodgers probably should be slight favorites to win this game.  Get your game score and over/under guess in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. H.Kuroda total strikeouts: 5.5
3. R.Wolf walks plus Dodgers runs scored: 6.5
4. Dodgers number of HRs hit: 0.5
5. Dodgers bullpen earned runs allowed: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 MIL 3-2   51 MIL 7-2   101 LAN 10-6
2 MIL 4-3   52 LAN 8-4   102 MIL 10-4
3 MIL 2-1   53 MIL 5-0   103 LAN 9-8
4 LAN 3-2   54 LAN 8-1   104 MIL 9-7
5 MIL 5-4   55 LAN 7-6   105 LAN 11-5
6 LAN 2-1   56 MIL 7-5   106 LAN 12-3
7 LAN 4-3   57 LAN 8-5   107 MIL 9-0
8 LAN 4-2   58 LAN 7-0   108 MIL 10-5
9 LAN 3-1   59 MIL 7-1   109 LAN 10-7
10 MIL 3-1   60 LAN 9-3   110 MIL 11-3
11 MIL 4-2   61 LAN 9-2   111 LAN 12-2
12 MIL 1-0   62 MIL 6-0   112 LAN 12-1
13 LAN 5-3   63 MIL 8-7   113 MIL 11-2
14 LAN 4-1   64 MIL 8-3   114 LAN 11-0
15 LAN 5-2   65 MIL 8-2   115 LAN 12-4
16 LAN 5-4   66 LAN 8-0   116 MIL 10-6
17 MIL 5-3   67 LAN 9-1   117 MIL 10-7
18 MIL 4-1   68 LAN 8-6   118 LAN 11-6
19 MIL 5-2   69 LAN 9-4   119 MIL 11-1
20 MIL 2-0   70 MIL 8-4   120 MIL 11-5
21 MIL 6-5   71 MIL 8-5   121 MIL 11-4
22 LAN 5-1   72 MIL 8-1   122 MIL 10-0
23 LAN 2-0   73 LAN 10-3   123 LAN 10-8
24 LAN 6-3   74 LAN 9-5   124 LAN 12-5
25 LAN 6-2   75 MIL 8-6   125 MIL 10-9
26 LAN 1-0   76 MIL 7-0   126 MIL 12-2
27 LAN 3-0   77 LAN 10-2   127 LAN 13-2
28 LAN 6-4   78 LAN 8-7   128 LAN 12-0
29 MIL 3-0   79 LAN 9-0   129 MIL 12-3
30 LAN 4-0   80 LAN 10-1   130 MIL 11-6
31 LAN 6-1   81 LAN 9-6   131 LAN 11-7
32 LAN 6-5   82 MIL 9-2   132 LAN 10-9
33 MIL 6-3   83 MIL 9-3   133 MIL 12-4
34 MIL 5-1   84 LAN 10-4   134 MIL 11-0
35 MIL 6-4   85 MIL 9-4   135 LAN 13-3
36 LAN 7-2   86 MIL 9-1   136 MIL 10-8
37 LAN 7-3   87 LAN 9-7   137 LAN 13-1
38 MIL 6-2   88 LAN 11-1   138 LAN 12-6
39 LAN 7-4   89 MIL 8-0   139 LAN 12-7
40 MIL 7-6   90 LAN 11-2   140 MIL 12-1
41 LAN 5-0   91 LAN 10-5   141 LAN 13-4
42 MIL 4-0   92 LAN 10-0   142 LAN 13-5
43 MIL 6-1   93 MIL 9-8   143 MIL 11-7
44 LAN 7-1   94 LAN 11-4   144 MIL 12-5
45 LAN 7-5   95 LAN 11-3   145 MIL 13-3
46 LAN 6-0   96 MIL 9-6   146 LAN 14-1
47 LAN 8-3   97 MIL 10-2   147 MIL 13-2
48 LAN 8-2   98 MIL 10-3   148 LAN 14-2
49 MIL 7-3   99 MIL 10-1   149 LAN 13-0
50 MIL 7-4   100 MIL 9-5   150 MIL 11-9
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