FanPost

August 26th, Dodgers vs Brewers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Brewers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN MIL C.Monasterios vs Y.Gallardo
MIL 61.54% 68.82%

 

Notes:  Nice start from Kuroda last night as the Dodgers defied the Vegas odds a little bit in their victory.  This time the Vegas Gods are a little too supportive of the Dodgers as Brewers hurler Yovanni Gallardo brings his 9.78 K/9 and ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.28 / 2.98 / 3.49 into the contest.  Early game so please get your game score and over/under guesses in on time.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. C.Monasterios total batters faced: 22.5
3. Dodgers doubles plus Dodgers HRs: 2.5
4. Y.Gallardo number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. Dodgers bullpen strikeouts: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 MIL 3-2   51 MIL 9-2   101 LAN 9-7
2 MIL 4-3   52 LAN 7-4   102 MIL 12-0
3 MIL 2-1   53 LAN 7-5   103 MIL 12-3
4 MIL 3-1   54 MIL 8-4   104 MIL 10-6
5 MIL 4-2   55 LAN 7-6   105 LAN 9-8
6 MIL 4-1   56 LAN 7-3   106 MIL 11-5
7 MIL 5-4   57 MIL 9-0   107 MIL 13-2
8 MIL 3-0   58 MIL 9-3   108 LAN 10-4
9 LAN 3-2   59 LAN 6-1   109 MIL 12-4
10 MIL 5-2   60 MIL 8-5   110 MIL 10-7
11 MIL 2-0   61 LAN 4-0   111 LAN 10-5
12 MIL 1-0   62 LAN 7-2   112 LAN 8-0
13 LAN 4-3   63 MIL 8-7   113 LAN 10-6
14 LAN 2-1   64 MIL 10-1   114 LAN 10-2
15 MIL 4-0   65 MIL 10-0   115 MIL 13-1
16 MIL 5-1   66 MIL 10-2   116 MIL 10-9
17 MIL 5-3   67 MIL 9-4   117 MIL 13-0
18 MIL 5-0   68 MIL 8-6   118 MIL 13-3
19 MIL 6-1   69 LAN 8-4   119 LAN 11-4
20 LAN 4-2   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 11-3
21 MIL 6-5   71 LAN 5-0   121 MIL 11-6
22 LAN 5-4   72 LAN 8-6   122 MIL 10-8
23 MIL 6-2   73 LAN 8-3   123 MIL 12-5
24 MIL 6-3   74 LAN 7-1   124 LAN 10-1
25 LAN 3-1   75 LAN 8-2   125 LAN 9-0
26 MIL 6-0   76 MIL 10-4   126 MIL 13-4
27 LAN 5-3   77 MIL 10-3   127 MIL 14-0
28 MIL 6-4   78 MIL 11-1   128 LAN 10-7
29 MIL 7-1   79 MIL 9-5   129 LAN 11-5
30 MIL 7-2   80 MIL 11-2   130 MIL 14-1
31 MIL 7-0   81 LAN 8-7   131 LAN 10-8
32 LAN 1-0   82 LAN 9-4   132 LAN 10-9
33 LAN 5-2   83 MIL 9-6   133 MIL 14-2
34 LAN 4-1   84 LAN 8-1   134 LAN 11-7
35 MIL 7-3   85 MIL 11-0   135 LAN 11-2
36 LAN 6-5   86 LAN 9-3   136 LAN 11-1
37 LAN 6-4   87 LAN 6-0   137 MIL 11-8
38 MIL 8-1   88 MIL 11-3   138 MIL 14-3
39 MIL 7-4   89 MIL 9-8   139 MIL 11-7
40 LAN 6-3   90 LAN 9-5   140 LAN 12-3
41 LAN 2-0   91 MIL 11-4   141 LAN 11-6
42 MIL 8-2   92 MIL 12-1   142 LAN 12-5
43 MIL 7-6   93 LAN 9-2   143 MIL 13-5
44 MIL 8-0   94 MIL 10-5   144 MIL 15-1
45 LAN 6-2   95 MIL 9-7   145 LAN 12-4
46 LAN 3-0   96 LAN 9-6   146 MIL 12-6
47 MIL 8-3   97 MIL 12-2   147 MIL 11-10
48 LAN 5-1   98 LAN 7-0   148 MIL 15-3
49 MIL 7-5   99 LAN 9-1   149 LAN 11-8
50 MIL 9-1   100 LAN 10-3   150 MIL 14-4
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