FanPost

August 27th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 7:45 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN MIL C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez
COL 59.51% 55.69%

 

Notes:  Last chance for playoff romance.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. C.Kershaw total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 7.5
4. U.Jimenez total batters faced: 27.5
5. Total pitchers used (both teams) in game: 5.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 COL 3-2   51 COL 7-4   101 COL 11-4
2 COL 2-1   52 COL 7-0   102 LAN 10-5
3 COL 4-3   53 LAN 7-5   103 COL 12-1
4 LAN 2-1   54 COL 8-2   104 LAN 11-1
5 LAN 3-2   55 COL 8-1   105 COL 11-0
6 COL 1-0   56 LAN 7-6   106 COL 10-5
7 COL 3-1   57 COL 7-5   107 LAN 11-2
8 COL 5-4   58 LAN 8-2   108 LAN 10-6
9 LAN 4-3   59 LAN 8-3   109 LAN 11-3
10 LAN 3-1   60 COL 8-3   110 LAN 10-0
11 COL 4-2   61 COL 8-0   111 COL 9-7
12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 8-4   112 COL 10-6
13 COL 2-0   63 LAN 8-1   113 COL 12-3
14 LAN 1-0   64 LAN 7-0   114 LAN 9-8
15 COL 4-1   65 COL 8-4   115 LAN 11-4
16 LAN 2-0   66 LAN 8-5   116 COL 12-2
17 COL 3-0   67 COL 8-7   117 LAN 10-7
18 LAN 4-1   68 COL 9-2   118 COL 12-0
19 LAN 5-4   69 COL 9-1   119 COL 10-7
20 LAN 5-3   70 LAN 9-2   120 COL 12-4
21 COL 5-3   71 LAN 8-6   121 LAN 11-5
22 COL 5-2   72 COL 9-3   122 LAN 11-0
23 LAN 5-2   73 COL 9-0   123 COL 10-9
24 COL 5-1   74 COL 8-5   124 LAN 12-3
25 COL 6-5   75 LAN 9-4   125 LAN 12-1
26 COL 4-0   76 LAN 8-0   126 COL 11-5
27 LAN 3-0   77 LAN 9-1   127 COL 13-1
28 LAN 5-1   78 LAN 9-3   128 LAN 12-4
29 COL 5-0   79 COL 10-2   129 LAN 11-6
30 COL 6-2   80 COL 8-6   130 COL 13-2
31 COL 6-1   81 LAN 8-7   131 COL 10-8
32 LAN 6-3   82 COL 9-4   132 LAN 12-2
33 LAN 4-0   83 COL 10-1   133 COL 11-6
34 LAN 6-4   84 LAN 10-2   134 COL 13-3
35 COL 6-3   85 COL 10-0   135 LAN 10-8
36 LAN 6-2   86 COL 9-5   136 LAN 12-5
37 LAN 6-5   87 COL 10-3   137 COL 13-4
38 COL 6-4   88 LAN 9-6   138 COL 13-0
39 LAN 6-1   89 COL 9-8   139 LAN 10-9
40 COL 6-0   90 LAN 10-1   140 LAN 13-4
41 LAN 5-0   91 LAN 9-5   141 LAN 12-6
42 COL 7-2   92 LAN 10-3   142 COL 12-5
43 COL 7-6   93 LAN 9-0   143 COL 12-6
44 COL 7-1   94 COL 11-1   144 LAN 11-8
45 LAN 7-2   95 LAN 10-4   145 COL 11-10
46 LAN 7-3   96 COL 10-4   146 LAN 11-7
47 COL 7-3   97 COL 11-2   147 LAN 12-0
48 LAN 7-4   98 COL 9-6   148 COL 14-2
49 LAN 6-0   99 LAN 9-7   149 COL 14-0
50 LAN 7-1   100 COL 11-3   150 LAN 13-1
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