August 28th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 27, 2010 11:54 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:45 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | MIL | C.Billingsley vs J.Chacin |
COL | 54.95% | 57.40% |
Notes: The Dodgers are keeping hope alive, as Manny's flight out of town is delayed for another night. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Billingsley earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 8.5
4. J.Chacin number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. Number of extra base hits both teams combined: 6.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 COL 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-6 | 101 COL 11-3 | ||
| 2 COL 4-3 | 52 LAN 5-0 | 102 COL 11-4 | ||
| 3 COL 2-1 | 53 COL 8-3 | 103 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 4 COL 5-4 | 54 LAN 7-1 | 104 COL 11-1 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 | 55 COL 8-2 | 105 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 6 LAN 2-1 | 56 COL 8-7 | 106 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 7 LAN 4-3 | 57 COL 7-0 | 107 COL 10-6 | ||
| 8 COL 3-1 | 58 COL 8-1 | 108 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 9 COL 4-2 | 59 LAN 6-0 | 109 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-2 | 60 LAN 8-2 | 110 COL 12-2 | ||
| 11 COL 1-0 | 61 LAN 8-3 | 111 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 12 COL 6-5 | 62 COL 8-4 | 112 COL 10-9 | ||
| 13 LAN 3-1 | 63 LAN 8-5 | 113 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 14 COL 5-3 | 64 LAN 8-4 | 114 COL 11-0 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-4 | 65 COL 8-5 | 115 COL 11-5 | ||
| 16 COL 4-1 | 66 COL 9-3 | 116 COL 12-3 | ||
| 17 COL 5-2 | 67 LAN 8-1 | 117 COL 12-1 | ||
| 18 COL 2-0 | 68 COL 8-0 | 118 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-3 | 69 COL 8-6 | 119 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 20 LAN 4-1 | 70 LAN 8-6 | 120 COL 13-3 | ||
| 21 COL 3-0 | 71 COL 9-2 | 121 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 22 LAN 5-2 | 72 COL 9-1 | 122 COL 12-0 | ||
| 23 COL 5-1 | 73 LAN 8-7 | 123 COL 11-6 | ||
| 24 COL 6-3 | 74 LAN 7-0 | 124 COL 10-7 | ||
| 25 LAN 1-0 | 75 COL 9-4 | 125 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 26 LAN 2-0 | 76 LAN 9-4 | 126 COL 12-4 | ||
| 27 COL 4-0 | 77 LAN 9-2 | 127 COL 12-5 | ||
| 28 COL 6-4 | 78 LAN 9-3 | 128 COL 10-8 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-3 | 79 COL 10-2 | 129 COL 13-2 | ||
| 30 COL 6-2 | 80 COL 9-0 | 130 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 31 LAN 6-5 | 81 COL 10-1 | 131 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 32 LAN 5-1 | 82 LAN 8-0 | 132 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 33 LAN 6-4 | 83 COL 9-8 | 133 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 34 COL 6-1 | 84 COL 10-3 | 134 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 35 COL 7-6 | 85 LAN 9-1 | 135 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 36 LAN 3-0 | 86 LAN 9-5 | 136 COL 13-1 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-2 | 87 COL 9-5 | 137 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 38 COL 5-0 | 88 COL 10-4 | 138 COL 12-6 | ||
| 39 LAN 4-0 | 89 LAN 9-6 | 139 COL 13-4 | ||
| 40 COL 7-2 | 90 LAN 10-2 | 140 COL 11-10 | ||
| 41 COL 7-3 | 91 LAN 10-3 | 141 COL 13-0 | ||
| 42 COL 7-4 | 92 COL 11-2 | 142 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 43 LAN 6-1 | 93 COL 9-6 | 143 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 44 COL 7-1 | 94 LAN 9-7 | 144 COL 13-5 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-5 | 95 COL 9-7 | 145 COL 14-2 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-3 | 96 COL 10-5 | 146 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 47 COL 6-0 | 97 LAN 10-1 | 147 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 48 COL 7-5 | 98 COL 10-0 | 148 LAN 11-9 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-4 | 99 LAN 10-4 | 149 COL 13-6 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-2 | 100 LAN 9-0 | 150 COL 14-1 |
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Yesterday’s point getters in bold.
Over/Under Questions
10 extra points if you guess all five questions correctly. Guess the game score correctly and you get the number of points that the score is in the table. If nobody guesses the score correct, then 5, 3, and 1 points are given to the three closest scores in the table rankings (correct team must win).
1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Billingsley earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 8.5
4. J.Chacin number of strikeouts: 6.5
5. Number of extra base hits both teams combined: 6.5
#14 COL 5-3, UOUOO
Nobody got the score or all of the over/under questions correct – though there was a near miss for both. The 5-3-1 points go to the only three people who picked the Rockies to win.
5 – Xeifrank (COL #23)
3 – Humma Kavula (COL #24)
1 – Michael White (COL #62)
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