August 29th, Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 29, 2010 12:16 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Rockies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 12:01 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| LAN | MIL | T.Lilly vs J.Hammel |
COL | 53.05% | 62.42% |
Notes: A pretty large spread between Vegas and the simulator today. Most of that coming from the following numbers that the oddsmakers are probably not looking at - ERA/FIP/xFIP: Jason Hammel 4.35/3.57/3.75, Ted Lilly 3.27/4.27/4.28. Not saying you should bet against the Dodgers. But I am typing it! :) Anyways, get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. J.Hammel number of pitches: 104.5
5. Dodgers bullpen earned runs allowed plus Rockies HRs hit: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 COL 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-5 | 101 LAN 9-8 | ||
| 2 COL 4-3 | 52 LAN 7-6 | 102 COL 11-0 | ||
| 3 COL 2-1 | 53 LAN 7-2 | 103 COL 12-3 | ||
| 4 COL 5-4 | 54 LAN 6-1 | 104 COL 11-5 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-2 | 55 COL 8-7 | 105 LAN 10-2 | ||
| 6 COL 4-2 | 56 COL 9-2 | 106 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 7 COL 3-1 | 57 COL 8-4 | 107 LAN 8-0 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-3 | 58 COL 9-1 | 108 COL 12-1 | ||
| 9 LAN 2-1 | 59 LAN 4-0 | 109 COL 12-0 | ||
| 10 COL 4-1 | 60 COL 8-0 | 110 COL 10-6 | ||
| 11 COL 5-3 | 61 COL 8-5 | 111 COL 12-4 | ||
| 12 COL 5-2 | 62 LAN 8-5 | 112 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 13 COL 6-5 | 63 LAN 8-4 | 113 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-2 | 64 COL 9-3 | 114 COL 13-3 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-4 | 65 LAN 8-3 | 115 COL 10-9 | ||
| 16 COL 5-1 | 66 COL 8-6 | 116 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 17 COL 1-0 | 67 LAN 5-0 | 117 COL 11-6 | ||
| 18 LAN 3-1 | 68 COL 9-4 | 118 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 19 COL 3-0 | 69 COL 9-0 | 119 COL 10-7 | ||
| 20 LAN 5-3 | 70 LAN 8-2 | 120 COL 13-2 | ||
| 21 COL 2-0 | 71 LAN 8-6 | 121 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 22 COL 6-2 | 72 COL 10-2 | 122 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 23 COL 6-3 | 73 LAN 7-1 | 123 COL 13-1 | ||
| 24 COL 4-0 | 74 COL 10-1 | 124 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-2 | 75 LAN 8-7 | 125 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 26 COL 6-1 | 76 COL 10-3 | 126 COL 12-5 | ||
| 27 COL 6-4 | 77 COL 9-5 | 127 COL 13-4 | ||
| 28 LAN 4-1 | 78 LAN 6-0 | 128 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 29 COL 5-0 | 79 LAN 9-3 | 129 COL 10-8 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-5 | 80 LAN 9-4 | 130 COL 12-6 | ||
| 31 COL 7-2 | 81 COL 11-2 | 131 COL 11-7 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-4 | 82 LAN 9-2 | 132 COL 13-0 | ||
| 33 LAN 1-0 | 83 LAN 8-1 | 133 COL 14-1 | ||
| 34 COL 7-6 | 84 COL 10-4 | 134 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 35 COL 7-1 | 85 COL 9-8 | 135 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-3 | 86 COL 10-0 | 136 COL 14-2 | ||
| 37 COL 7-3 | 87 COL 11-1 | 137 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 38 LAN 2-0 | 88 LAN 9-5 | 138 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 39 COL 6-0 | 89 COL 9-6 | 139 COL 14-4 | ||
| 40 COL 7-4 | 90 LAN 9-6 | 140 COL 14-3 | ||
| 41 LAN 6-2 | 91 COL 11-3 | 141 COL 11-10 | ||
| 42 LAN 5-1 | 92 COL 10-5 | 142 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 43 COL 8-2 | 93 COL 9-7 | 143 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 44 COL 8-1 | 94 LAN 9-1 | 144 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-4 | 95 LAN 10-4 | 145 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 46 COL 8-3 | 96 LAN 9-7 | 146 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 47 LAN 3-0 | 97 LAN 7-0 | 147 LAN 12-7 | ||
| 48 COL 7-0 | 98 LAN 10-3 | 148 COL 13-5 | ||
| 49 COL 7-5 | 99 COL 12-2 | 149 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-3 | 100 COL 11-4 | 150 COL 11-8 |
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Over/Under Question
Good for an additional 10 points if you guess all five questions below correctly.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. J.Hammel number of pitches: 104.5
5. Dodgers bullpen earned runs allowed plus Rockies HRs hit: 2.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
#35 COL 7-1, OUUOO
For 2nd place. But I don’t like guessing against Eric’s pattern of Dodgers winning the deciding game of a Colorado series. But then again, I don’t want to leave HK as the only one picking the Rockies to win. :)
#92 COL 10-5, OOOOO
Nobody guessed the game score or the over/under questions correct. The 5-3-1 points go to….
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