FanPost

August 3rd, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 8:30 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SD LAN M.Latos vs T.Lilly LAN 50.74% 50.42%

 

Notes:    Ted Lilly makes his Dodger debut today.  Both the simulator and Vegas call this game a tossup.  Not much else to look forward to in tonight's game.  Get your coin out and make your game score and over/under guesses.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Dodgers total runs scored: 2.5
2. T.Lilly total number of pitches: 107.5
3. T.Lilly plus M.Latos total number of strikeouts: 14.5
4. Dodgers bullpen number of batters faced: 8.5
5. Padres total number of hits: 7.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 SD 6-0
2 LAN 4-3   52 LAN 7-5
3 LAN 2-1   53 SD 8-3
4 SD 3-2   54 LAN 7-1
5 SD 4-3   55 SD 8-1
6 SD 2-1   56 LAN 6-0
7 LAN 5-4   57 SD 7-6
8 SD 3-1   58 LAN 8-2
9 SD 4-2   59 SD 8-4
10 LAN 3-1   60 SD 7-0
11 LAN 4-2   61 LAN 8-3
12 LAN 1-0   62 LAN 8-4
13 SD 4-1   63 SD 8-5
14 LAN 5-3   64 SD 9-2
15 SD 5-3   65 LAN 8-1
16 SD 5-2   66 SD 9-3
17 SD 5-4   67 LAN 8-5
18 LAN 5-2   68 LAN 8-7
19 LAN 4-1   69 SD 9-1
20 LAN 6-5   70 LAN 9-2
21 SD 3-0   71 SD 8-0
22 SD 2-0   72 SD 9-4
23 LAN 2-0   73 LAN 9-3
24 SD 1-0   74 SD 8-6
25 SD 5-1   75 LAN 7-0
26 SD 6-3   76 LAN 9-1
27 LAN 3-0   77 SD 9-5
28 SD 6-2   78 SD 8-7
29 LAN 5-1   79 LAN 8-6
30 LAN 6-3   80 SD 10-2
31 LAN 6-4   81 LAN 9-4
32 SD 4-0   82 SD 10-3
33 SD 6-4   83 LAN 8-0
34 SD 6-5   84 SD 9-0
35 LAN 6-2   85 SD 9-6
36 SD 6-1   86 SD 10-1
37 LAN 4-0   87 LAN 9-5
38 SD 7-2   88 SD 10-4
39 SD 5-0   89 LAN 9-6
40 SD 7-4   90 LAN 10-2
41 SD 7-3   91 LAN 9-8
42 LAN 7-6   92 LAN 10-3
43 LAN 6-1   93 SD 9-7
44 LAN 7-3   94 SD 10-5
45 SD 7-1   95 LAN 10-4
46 LAN 7-4   96 LAN 10-1
47 SD 7-5   97 SD 11-2
48 LAN 7-2   98 SD 11-1
49 LAN 5-0   99 LAN 9-0
50 SD 8-2   100 SD 11-3
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