August 30th, Philles vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 30, 2010 1:18 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 12:45 AM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| PHI | LAN | R.Halladay vs H.Kuroda |
PHI | 57.63% | 53.39% |
Notes: A tough pitching matchup or the Dodgers but they still have a decent shot at winning this game. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. R.Halladay number of strikeouts: 7.5
5. Phillies number of HRs hit plus Halladay wins plus Lidge saves: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 2-1 | 51 PHI 7-5 | 101 PHI 12-1 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 LAN 6-0 | 102 LAN 9-6 | ||
| 3 PHI 2-1 | 53 PHI 8-0 | 103 PHI 12-0 | ||
| 4 LAN 1-0 | 54 LAN 7-3 | 104 LAN 10-3 | ||
| 5 LAN 4-3 | 55 LAN 7-2 | 105 LAN 10-4 | ||
| 6 PHI 3-2 | 56 PHI 8-4 | 106 LAN 9-5 | ||
| 7 PHI 3-1 | 57 LAN 7-1 | 107 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 8 PHI 1-0 | 58 LAN 7-4 | 108 PHI 11-5 | ||
| 9 LAN 3-1 | 59 PHI 9-2 | 109 PHI 12-4 | ||
| 10 PHI 4-3 | 60 PHI 7-6 | 110 PHI 10-6 | ||
| 11 PHI 4-2 | 61 PHI 9-1 | 111 PHI 13-2 | ||
| 12 PHI 2-0 | 62 PHI 9-3 | 112 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 13 LAN 2-0 | 63 LAN 7-0 | 113 PHI 12-3 | ||
| 14 PHI 4-1 | 64 LAN 7-5 | 114 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 15 LAN 4-2 | 65 PHI 8-5 | 115 PHI 9-8 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-4 | 66 LAN 8-1 | 116 PHI 13-1 | ||
| 17 PHI 3-0 | 67 PHI 9-0 | 117 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 18 LAN 4-1 | 68 PHI 10-1 | 118 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 19 PHI 5-2 | 69 PHI 10-2 | 119 PHI 13-3 | ||
| 20 LAN 3-0 | 70 LAN 8-3 | 120 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 21 PHI 5-3 | 71 LAN 8-2 | 121 PHI 13-0 | ||
| 22 PHI 4-0 | 72 PHI 9-4 | 122 PHI 11-6 | ||
| 23 PHI 5-1 | 73 PHI 8-6 | 123 PHI 10-7 | ||
| 24 PHI 5-4 | 74 LAN 8-7 | 124 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 25 LAN 5-2 | 75 PHI 10-3 | 125 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 26 PHI 5-0 | 76 PHI 9-5 | 126 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 27 LAN 5-3 | 77 PHI 10-0 | 127 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 28 PHI 6-2 | 78 LAN 8-5 | 128 PHI 13-4 | ||
| 29 PHI 6-1 | 79 LAN 8-4 | 129 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 30 LAN 5-1 | 80 LAN 8-0 | 130 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 31 LAN 4-0 | 81 PHI 11-2 | 131 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-5 | 82 PHI 8-7 | 132 PHI 11-7 | ||
| 33 PHI 6-3 | 83 PHI 10-4 | 133 PHI 12-5 | ||
| 34 PHI 6-0 | 84 LAN 9-2 | 134 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 35 PHI 6-4 | 85 PHI 11-1 | 135 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 36 PHI 7-1 | 86 LAN 9-3 | 136 PHI 13-5 | ||
| 37 PHI 7-2 | 87 LAN 8-6 | 137 PHI 14-1 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-3 | 88 LAN 9-4 | 138 PHI 12-6 | ||
| 39 PHI 7-3 | 89 LAN 9-1 | 139 PHI 14-3 | ||
| 40 PHI 6-5 | 90 PHI 11-3 | 140 PHI 14-2 | ||
| 41 LAN 5-0 | 91 PHI 9-6 | 141 PHI 10-8 | ||
| 42 LAN 6-4 | 92 LAN 10-2 | 142 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 43 LAN 6-2 | 93 PHI 11-4 | 143 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 44 PHI 7-0 | 94 LAN 10-1 | 144 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 6-1 | 95 PHI 11-0 | 145 PHI 15-2 | ||
| 46 PHI 7-4 | 96 LAN 9-0 | 146 PHI 14-4 | ||
| 47 PHI 8-1 | 97 PHI 12-2 | 147 PHI 14-0 | ||
| 48 PHI 8-2 | 98 LAN 9-8 | 148 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 49 PHI 8-3 | 99 PHI 10-5 | 149 PHI 13-6 | ||
| 50 LAN 7-6 | 100 PHI 9-7 | 150 LAN 13-2 |
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Over/Under Questions
10 bonus points if all five questions answered correctly.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. R.Halladay number of strikeouts: 7.5
5. Phillies number of HRs hit plus Halladay wins plus Lidge saves: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
For clarification:
I chose ‘Over’ on #5 not because I think the Phillies will win but because they will hit 2 HRs: a 3rd inning lead off HR by Victorino (solo) and a 6th inning 2-out HR by Ruiz (2-run).
# 48 8 - 2
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. R.Halladay number of strikeouts: 7.5
5. Phillies number of HRs hit plus Halladay wins plus Lidge saves: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
OOUUO
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
#17 PHI 3-0
UUUOO
2. H.Kuroda earned runs allowed: 2.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. R.Halladay number of strikeouts: 7.5
5. Phillies number of HRs hit plus Halladay wins plus Lidge saves: 1.5
Adam Morrison has more rings than Lebron, Bosh, and Wade combined?
#20 LAN 3-0, UUOUU
Nobody got the final score correct, though you guys had it surrounded. Nobody got the over/under question right either. The 5-3-1 points go to… (bnb, MW, kc13)
Daily Scoreboard
5 – bucknellbruin (LAN #13)
3 – Michael White (LAN #9)
1 – keithc13 (LAN #38)
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