August 31st, Phillies vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Aug 30, 2010 11:38 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 11:15 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| PHI | LAN | K.Kendrick vs C.Monasterios |
LAN | 51.69% | 47.03% |
Notes: Two more must wins against the Phillies. We got passed Halladay, now we need to get by Monasterios. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Monasterios total batters faced: 22.5
3. Dodgers starting outfielders total bases: 5.5
4. K.Kendrick strikeouts minus walks: 1.5
5. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 4.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 4-3 | 51 LAN 4-0 | 101 LAN 8-0 | ||
| 2 LAN 3-2 | 52 LAN 6-1 | 102 PHI 10-7 | ||
| 3 LAN 5-4 | 53 LAN 8-7 | 103 LAN 10-2 | ||
| 4 PHI 3-2 | 54 LAN 7-2 | 104 PHI 11-1 | ||
| 5 PHI 4-3 | 55 PHI 8-5 | 105 PHI 10-0 | ||
| 6 LAN 2-1 | 56 PHI 6-0 | 106 PHI 12-2 | ||
| 7 PHI 4-2 | 57 PHI 9-3 | 107 PHI 12-3 | ||
| 8 PHI 5-4 | 58 PHI 8-1 | 108 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 PHI 9-2 | 109 PHI 10-8 | ||
| 10 LAN 6-5 | 60 PHI 8-6 | 110 PHI 12-4 | ||
| 11 PHI 5-3 | 61 LAN 5-0 | 111 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 12 PHI 2-1 | 62 PHI 9-4 | 112 LAN 10-1 | ||
| 13 PHI 3-1 | 63 PHI 8-7 | 113 PHI 11-6 | ||
| 14 LAN 3-1 | 64 LAN 8-3 | 114 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 15 LAN 5-3 | 65 LAN 8-5 | 115 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 16 PHI 5-2 | 66 LAN 7-1 | 116 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 17 PHI 4-1 | 67 LAN 8-4 | 117 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 18 PHI 6-3 | 68 PHI 9-1 | 118 PHI 12-5 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 PHI 7-0 | 119 LAN 11-2 | ||
| 20 PHI 6-4 | 70 LAN 8-6 | 120 PHI 10-9 | ||
| 21 PHI 6-5 | 71 LAN 8-2 | 121 LAN 9-0 | ||
| 22 LAN 4-1 | 72 PHI 9-5 | 122 PHI 11-7 | ||
| 23 PHI 6-2 | 73 LAN 6-0 | 123 PHI 11-0 | ||
| 24 LAN 6-4 | 74 PHI 10-4 | 124 PHI 12-1 | ||
| 25 LAN 6-3 | 75 PHI 10-2 | 125 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 26 LAN 7-6 | 76 PHI 10-3 | 126 PHI 13-2 | ||
| 27 PHI 5-1 | 77 PHI 9-6 | 127 PHI 13-3 | ||
| 28 LAN 1-0 | 78 LAN 8-1 | 128 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 29 PHI 7-3 | 79 PHI 8-0 | 129 PHI 12-6 | ||
| 30 PHI 7-4 | 80 LAN 9-8 | 130 PHI 13-4 | ||
| 31 PHI 7-2 | 81 PHI 9-7 | 131 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 32 LAN 5-1 | 82 LAN 9-4 | 132 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 33 PHI 3-0 | 83 LAN 9-3 | 133 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 34 PHI 7-5 | 84 PHI 10-5 | 134 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 35 PHI 6-1 | 85 LAN 9-6 | 135 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 36 PHI 2-0 | 86 LAN 9-5 | 136 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 37 LAN 3-0 | 87 LAN 9-2 | 137 PHI 12-0 | ||
| 38 LAN 6-2 | 88 LAN 7-0 | 138 PHI 13-1 | ||
| 39 PHI 1-0 | 89 LAN 9-7 | 139 PHI 11-8 | ||
| 40 LAN 2-0 | 90 PHI 10-1 | 140 PHI 13-5 | ||
| 41 LAN 7-4 | 91 PHI 9-0 | 141 PHI 13-6 | ||
| 42 PHI 7-6 | 92 PHI 11-2 | 142 PHI 12-7 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-5 | 93 LAN 9-1 | 143 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 44 PHI 4-0 | 94 PHI 9-8 | 144 PHI 11-9 | ||
| 45 PHI 7-1 | 95 PHI 10-6 | 145 PHI 14-4 | ||
| 46 PHI 8-3 | 96 LAN 10-3 | 146 LAN 11-10 | ||
| 47 PHI 8-2 | 97 PHI 11-3 | 147 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 48 PHI 8-4 | 98 LAN 10-4 | 148 PHI 14-1 | ||
| 49 LAN 7-3 | 99 PHI 11-5 | 149 PHI 14-2 | ||
| 50 PHI 5-0 | 100 PHI 11-4 | 150 LAN 11-0 |
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Over/Under Questions
10 extra points if you guess all five correctly. Bet you can’t do it.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. C.Monasterios total batters faced: 22.5
3. Dodgers starting outfielders total bases: 5.5
4. K.Kendrick strikeouts minus walks: 1.5
5. Dodgers bullpen number of strikeouts: 4.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
#48 PHI 8-4, OUUUU
Nobody guessed the score or over/under questions correctly. Proximity points are the only thing awarded.
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