FanPost

August 4th, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SD LAN W.LeBlanc vs V.Padilla LAN 58.33% 59.06%

 

Notes:  Not enough to put a scare into the rest of the NL West teams, but the Dodgers did manage to knock off the first place Padres last night, thanks to the newly acquired Ted Lilly.  Both Vegas and the simulator give the Dodgers a moderate chance of making it two in a row against the pests from down south.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 6.5
2. V.Padilla number of pitches: 101.5
3. Number of Dodgers bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. W.LeBlanc total batters faced: 25.5
5. Total bases from Dodgers starting C/2B/SS combined: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 SD 7-2   101 LAN 10-0
2 LAN 4-3   52 SD 4-0   102 SD 9-8
3 LAN 2-1   53 SD 6-1   103 LAN 11-4
4 LAN 5-4   54 LAN 8-4   104 LAN 11-1
5 SD 3-2   55 LAN 8-1   105 SD 10-1
6 SD 4-3   56 LAN 7-0   106 SD 10-6
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 8-7   107 SD 10-7
8 LAN 3-1   58 LAN 8-5   108 LAN 10-7
9 LAN 5-3   59 SD 8-4   109 SD 11-3
10 SD 2-1   60 SD 7-1   110 SD 9-0
11 SD 4-2   61 LAN 9-3   111 LAN 11-5
12 LAN 5-2   62 LAN 9-2   112 SD 11-4
13 LAN 4-1   63 SD 5-0   113 SD 11-2
14 LAN 6-5   64 SD 8-5   114 LAN 10-8
15 SD 3-1   65 SD 8-3   115 LAN 12-4
16 SD 5-4   66 LAN 9-1   116 SD 11-5
17 SD 5-3   67 SD 8-2   117 LAN 12-1
18 LAN 6-3   68 SD 8-6   118 LAN 10-9
19 LAN 5-1   69 SD 6-0   119 LAN 12-3
20 LAN 6-2   70 LAN 8-0   120 LAN 12-2
21 SD 5-2   71 SD 8-7   121 LAN 11-0
22 SD 4-1   72 LAN 9-4   122 SD 11-1
23 LAN 1-0   73 LAN 8-6   123 SD 10-8
24 LAN 3-0   74 SD 9-4   124 SD 11-6
25 LAN 6-4   75 SD 8-1   125 LAN 11-6
26 SD 6-5   76 SD 9-3   126 SD 12-5
27 LAN 2-0   77 LAN 10-2   127 LAN 13-2
28 SD 6-4   78 LAN 10-3   128 LAN 12-5
29 LAN 6-1   79 SD 9-2   129 SD 10-0
30 SD 6-3   80 LAN 9-5   130 LAN 13-3
31 LAN 4-0   81 LAN 10-1   131 SD 12-4
32 LAN 7-3   82 SD 9-5   132 SD 10-9
33 LAN 7-2   83 LAN 9-8   133 SD 12-3
34 LAN 7-6   84 LAN 9-0   134 LAN 11-7
35 LAN 7-4   85 LAN 10-4   135 SD 11-7
36 SD 3-0   86 SD 9-6   136 SD 12-2
37 SD 6-2   87 LAN 9-6   137 LAN 13-1
38 SD 1-0   88 SD 7-0   138 LAN 12-0
39 SD 2-0   89 LAN 11-2   139 LAN 13-4
40 LAN 5-0   90 SD 9-7   140 SD 12-6
41 SD 5-1   91 SD 9-1   141 SD 13-3
42 LAN 7-5   92 LAN 10-5   142 SD 11-8
43 LAN 7-1   93 SD 10-5   143 LAN 12-6
44 SD 7-4   94 SD 10-3   144 SD 11-0
45 LAN 6-0   95 SD 10-2   145 LAN 11-10
46 LAN 8-2   96 SD 8-0   146 LAN 14-3
47 SD 7-6   97 LAN 9-7   147 LAN 12-7
48 SD 7-5   98 LAN 11-3   148 LAN 14-2
49 LAN 8-3   99 LAN 10-6   149 LAN 11-8
50 SD 7-3   100 SD 10-4   150 LAN 13-5
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