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Nothing like a nice comeback to wash away the sorrow of a disappointing loss. The Dodgers win probability actually never got below 25% in yesterday's contest.

The biggest win probability swing in the Phillies favor was on Ryan Howard's homerun when their odds of winning jumped from 48.2% to 59.7%.

The Dodgers two biggest win probability shifts obviously came in the bottom of the 8th inning. They entered the inning witha 41.1% chance of winning, and got their odds up to 49.6% when Russell Martin came to the plate and reached on an error by Chase Utley which bumped their win expectancy to 61.0%. But the biggest jump came on Andre Ethier's bases loaded walk, the Dodgers win expectancy went from 63.5% to 87.4%. Those two at bats had a leverage indez above 5, meaning they were more than five times as important as an average at bat.

The MVP of the gam (per win probability) was easily Pedro Martinez, whose .450 win probability added was more than double the next closest player, Vicente Padilla with .207 WPA. Ethier (.157), Martin (.152), and Thome (.141) also made key contributions for the Dodgers. The Least Valuable Player was Matt Kemp, whose -.246 was more than twice as bad as any other Dodger. Of course 57% of his negative contribution came on his stikeout in the 8th inning, and whiffing against a guy with more than a strikeout per inning in 2009 is nothing to be ashamed of.

Finally, as Phil said in the recap below the Dodgers odds of winning the series are now 51.9%. That's not too bad all things considered.

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Recent Posts

Pos	No	Player	2012 Salary
C	17	Ellis	$490,000
1B	7	Loney	$6,375,000
2B	37	Herrera	$375,082
3B	6	Hairston	$2,250,000
SS	9	Gordon	$485,000
LF	23	Abreu	$401,311
CF	10	Gwynn	$850,000
RF	16	Ethier	$10,950,000

OF/1B	33	Van Slyke	$388,197
2B/3B	3	Kennedy	$800,000
OF/1B	30	Sands	$375,175
IF	13	DeJesus	$448,992
C	18	Treanor	$850,000

SP	22	Kershaw	$6,000,000
SP	58	Billingsley	$9,000,000
SP	29	Lilly	$12,000,000
SP	44	Harang	$3,000,000
SP	35	Capuano	$3,000,000

CL	74	Jansen	$491,000
RHP	52	Lindblom	$483,000
RHP	51	Belisario	$414,426
RHP	54	Guerra	$488,000
RHP	28	Wright	$900,000
LHP	57	Elbert	$488,500
RHP	60	Coffey	$1,000,000

DL	27	Kemp	$10,000,000
DL	21	Rivera	$4,000,000
DL	12	Sellers	$481,000
DL	5	Uribe	$8,000,000
DL	55	Guerrier	$4,750,000
DL	14	Ellis	$2,500,000
60DL	36	Hawksworth	$495,000
60DL	41	De La Rosa	$485,000

AA	50	Eovaldi	$7,885
AAA	56	Antonini	$7,869

		Manny	$8,087,432	deferred
		Andruw	$3,375,000	deferred
		Pierre	$3,050,000	deferred
		Furcal	$3,000,000	deferred
		Kuroda	$2,000,000	deferred
		Garland	$1,500,000	option buyout
		Blake	$1,250,000	option buyout
DFA	66	MacDougal	$650,000

Totals			$115,942,869
For more detailed information, click here.
Current 40-man roster count: 42 (incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)