FanPost

August 5th, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Wednesday at 11:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SD LAN K.Correia vs C.Billingsley LAN 59.84% 62.84%

 

Notes:  Now that the Dodgers are putting out a pathetic and Padres-like lineup, they are beginning to finally play like the amazing Padres and win games.  Let's see if the Dodgers can keep the clock from striking midnight for another night at the ravine.  Both Vegas and the simulator have the Dodgers as a firm favorite, with the simulator showing a little more confidence in a Dodger victory than the fine folks from Vegas.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. C.Billingsley number of strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers runs minus Padres runs: 1.5
4. K.Correia total batters faced:  24.5
5. Dodgers total number of extra base hits: 2.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 SD 4-0   101 SD 9-7
2 LAN 4-3   52 SD 7-5   102 LAN 11-4
3 LAN 2-1   53 SD 7-6   103 LAN 12-2
4 SD 3-2   54 SD 7-3   104 SD 9-8
5 LAN 3-1   55 LAN 8-0   105 LAN 10-6
6 LAN 5-4   56 SD 7-2   106 SD 10-5
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 9-2   107 LAN 12-3
8 SD 2-1   58 LAN 8-4   108 SD 10-1
9 LAN 4-1   59 SD 5-0   109 LAN 11-5
10 SD 4-3   60 LAN 9-1   110 LAN 12-1
11 LAN 5-2   61 SD 7-1   111 SD 9-0
12 LAN 1-0   62 LAN 9-3   112 SD 10-7
13 LAN 3-0   63 LAN 8-7   113 LAN 12-0
14 SD 4-2   64 LAN 8-5   114 SD 10-6
15 LAN 5-3   65 SD 8-4   115 LAN 10-7
16 SD 3-1   66 SD 8-2   116 SD 11-3
17 LAN 5-1   67 SD 8-3   117 SD 11-4
18 LAN 2-0   68 SD 8-5   118 LAN 10-9
19 SD 5-4   69 LAN 8-6   119 SD 10-8
20 LAN 4-0   70 LAN 10-2   120 LAN 11-6
21 LAN 6-3   71 LAN 9-0   121 SD 11-5
22 SD 5-3   72 SD 8-6   122 LAN 12-4
23 LAN 6-2   73 SD 6-0   123 SD 11-1
24 LAN 6-5   74 LAN 10-3   124 SD 10-0
25 LAN 5-0   75 LAN 9-4   125 LAN 10-8
26 LAN 6-1   76 SD 8-1   126 LAN 13-2
27 SD 5-2   77 LAN 10-1   127 SD 12-4
28 SD 1-0   78 SD 8-7   128 LAN 13-3
29 SD 4-1   79 LAN 9-6   129 SD 12-2
30 LAN 6-4   80 SD 9-2   130 SD 11-2
31 SD 2-0   81 SD 9-3   131 LAN 12-5
32 LAN 7-2   82 LAN 9-5   132 SD 11-6
33 LAN 6-0   83 SD 9-4   133 SD 11-7
34 SD 6-4   84 LAN 10-4   134 LAN 13-4
35 LAN 7-3   85 LAN 10-0   135 SD 10-9
36 LAN 7-1   86 SD 9-5   136 LAN 13-0
37 SD 6-3   87 SD 7-0   137 SD 12-6
38 SD 6-5   88 LAN 11-3   138 LAN 13-1
39 SD 3-0   89 LAN 9-8   139 LAN 14-2
40 SD 5-1   90 LAN 11-1   140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 7-4   91 SD 9-6   141 SD 12-1
42 LAN 7-6   92 LAN 11-2   142 SD 12-3
43 SD 6-2   93 LAN 10-5   143 LAN 12-6
44 LAN 7-0   94 SD 10-3   144 SD 13-3
45 LAN 8-1   95 SD 9-1   145 LAN 14-3
46 LAN 8-2   96 SD 10-2   146 SD 12-5
47 LAN 7-5   97 SD 8-0   147 LAN 14-0
48 SD 7-4   98 LAN 9-7   148 LAN 12-7
49 LAN 8-3   99 LAN 11-0   149 LAN 14-1
50 SD 6-1   100 SD 10-4   150 LAN 13-5
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