FanPost

August 6th, Nationals vs Dodgers - Simulatioin

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Nationals and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 WAS LAN J.Lannan vs C.Kershaw LAN 70.15% 68.83%

 

Notes:  The Dodgers need to win and both Vegas and the simulator think they will.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs both teams combined: 7.5
2. C.Kershaw number of strikeouts: 6.5
3. C.Kershaw batters faced minus J.Lannan batters faced: 4.5
4. Innings that the Dodgers score in: 2.5
5. Dodgers number of HRs: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 9-0   101 WAS 9-1
2 LAN 3-2   52 WAS 4-0   102 LAN 9-7
3 LAN 4-3   53 LAN 7-5   103 LAN 11-5
4 LAN 1-0   54 LAN 8-4   104 LAN 10-6
5 LAN 3-1   55 WAS 6-1   105 WAS 10-4
6 LAN 4-1   56 WAS 7-2   106 WAS 9-7
7 LAN 4-2   57 LAN 9-3   107 LAN 13-2
8 LAN 3-0   58 WAS 7-4   108 WAS 10-2
9 WAS 2-1   59 WAS 7-5   109 LAN 13-1
10 WAS 3-2   60 WAS 7-3   110 WAS 10-5
11 LAN 2-0   61 LAN 10-1   111 LAN 12-4
12 LAN 5-4   62 LAN 10-2   112 LAN 13-0
13 LAN 5-2   63 LAN 8-5   113 WAS 10-3
14 LAN 4-0   64 WAS 5-0   114 WAS 10-6
15 LAN 5-1   65 WAS 7-6   115 LAN 10-7
16 WAS 4-3   66 LAN 9-4   116 LAN 13-3
17 LAN 5-0   67 LAN 8-7   117 WAS 10-1
18 LAN 5-3   68 LAN 10-0   118 WAS 9-0
19 WAS 3-1   69 LAN 10-3   119 WAS 10-7
20 LAN 6-1   70 WAS 7-1   120 LAN 11-6
21 WAS 1-0   71 WAS 8-3   121 LAN 10-9
22 LAN 6-2   72 WAS 6-0   122 WAS 9-8
23 WAS 4-2   73 LAN 11-1   123 LAN 13-4
24 LAN 6-0   74 LAN 8-6   124 WAS 11-3
25 LAN 6-3   75 WAS 8-4   125 WAS 11-2
26 LAN 6-5   76 WAS 8-5   126 LAN 12-5
27 WAS 2-0   77 WAS 8-2   127 WAS 11-4
28 WAS 5-4   78 LAN 11-2   128 LAN 14-2
29 WAS 5-3   79 LAN 9-5   129 LAN 14-3
30 LAN 7-1   80 LAN 11-3   130 WAS 11-5
31 LAN 7-2   81 WAS 8-6   131 LAN 14-1
32 LAN 7-0   82 LAN 11-0   132 LAN 14-0
33 LAN 6-4   83 LAN 10-4   133 WAS 10-8
34 WAS 4-1   84 WAS 8-7   134 LAN 10-8
35 WAS 5-2   85 WAS 7-0   135 LAN 14-4
36 LAN 7-3   86 WAS 8-1   136 LAN 11-7
37 LAN 8-1   87 LAN 9-6   137 WAS 10-0
38 WAS 3-0   88 LAN 10-5   138 WAS 11-6
39 LAN 8-2   89 WAS 9-3   139 WAS 11-1
40 LAN 8-0   90 WAS 9-2   140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-4   91 LAN 12-2   141 WAS 10-9
42 WAS 6-5   92 LAN 12-1   142 LAN 15-1
43 WAS 6-4   93 WAS 9-5   143 LAN 11-8
44 WAS 5-1   94 LAN 9-8   144 WAS 11-7
45 LAN 7-6   95 WAS 8-0   145 WAS 12-3
46 WAS 6-3   96 LAN 11-4   146 WAS 12-5
47 LAN 8-3   97 WAS 9-6   147 WAS 12-2
48 WAS 6-2   98 WAS 9-4   148 LAN 13-5
49 LAN 9-2   99 LAN 12-0   149 WAS 12-4
50 LAN 9-1   100 LAN 12-3   150 LAN 11-10
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