FanPost

September 15th, Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 LAN SF C.Billingsley vs M.Cain SF 58.51% 53.48%

 

Notes:  Vegas giving the Giants around 5% more win probability than the simulator does for today's game.  The Dodgers are hoping to make the Giants "Suck It" for a second consecutive day.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  The over/under progressive jackpot is up to 20 points.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total strikeouts:  6.5
3. Dodgers total hits: 6.5
4. M.Cain earned runs allowed: 1.5
5. Dodgers total bases: 7.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 LAN 6-0   101 SF 11-1
2 SF 2-1   52 LAN 7-5   102 LAN 10-5
3 SF 4-3   53 LAN 8-2   103 LAN 10-0
4 LAN 2-1   54 SF 7-5   104 SF 10-5
5 LAN 3-2   55 LAN 8-3   105 LAN 11-4
6 SF 1-0   56 SF 8-2   106 LAN 9-8
7 SF 3-1   57 LAN 8-1   107 LAN 11-3
8 SF 5-4   58 LAN 7-6   108 SF 11-3
9 LAN 3-1   59 SF 7-0   109 SF 9-7
10 SF 4-2   60 LAN 7-0   110 SF 11-4
11 LAN 4-3   61 SF 8-1   111 LAN 11-0
12 LAN 4-2   62 LAN 8-4   112 LAN 10-6
13 SF 2-0   63 SF 8-3   113 LAN 12-2
14 SF 4-1   64 SF 8-4   114 SF 12-2
15 LAN 1-0   65 LAN 9-2   115 SF 12-1
16 LAN 2-0   66 LAN 8-5   116 SF 10-6
17 LAN 4-1   67 LAN 8-0   117 SF 12-3
18 SF 5-2   68 SF 8-5   118 SF 11-0
19 SF 3-0   69 SF 9-2   119 LAN 12-3
20 SF 5-3   70 LAN 9-1   120 SF 11-5
21 LAN 5-2   71 SF 8-0   121 LAN 10-7
22 LAN 5-3   72 SF 8-7   122 SF 12-4
23 LAN 5-4   73 SF 9-3   123 LAN 12-1
24 LAN 3-0   74 SF 9-1   124 LAN 11-5
25 SF 6-5   75 LAN 9-3   125 SF 10-9
26 SF 5-1   76 SF 8-6   126 LAN 10-8
27 LAN 5-1   77 LAN 8-6   127 LAN 12-4
28 SF 4-0   78 LAN 9-4   128 SF 10-7
29 SF 6-3   79 LAN 9-0   129 SF 10-8
30 LAN 4-0   80 LAN 10-2   130 SF 12-0
31 SF 6-2   81 SF 9-4   131 LAN 11-6
32 LAN 6-3   82 LAN 8-7   132 SF 11-6
33 LAN 6-2   83 LAN 10-3   133 LAN 11-7
34 SF 5-0   84 LAN 10-1   134 LAN 12-5
35 SF 6-1   85 SF 9-0   135 SF 13-1
36 LAN 6-1   86 SF 10-1   136 SF 13-2
37 LAN 6-4   87 LAN 9-5   137 LAN 12-0
38 SF 6-4   88 LAN 9-6   138 SF 13-3
39 LAN 5-0   89 SF 10-2   139 LAN 10-9
40 LAN 6-5   90 SF 9-5   140 LAN 13-1
41 LAN 7-2   91 LAN 10-4   141 SF 12-5
42 SF 7-2   92 SF 9-6   142 LAN 13-2
43 SF 7-6   93 SF 10-3   143 LAN 11-8
44 LAN 7-3   94 SF 10-4   144 LAN 13-3
45 LAN 7-1   95 SF 9-8   145 LAN 13-4
46 LAN 7-4   96 SF 10-0   146 SF 11-7
47 SF 7-1   97 LAN 9-7   147 SF 13-4
48 SF 7-4   98 SF 11-2   148 SF 14-3
49 SF 6-0   99 LAN 11-2   149 LAN 12-6
50 SF 7-3   100 LAN 11-1   150 LAN 13-5
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