What To Do With James Loney
by Eric Stephen on Sep 2, 2010 6:04 PM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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Oh, how I want James Loney to succeed. He was a key part of the Jacksonville Five in 2005, he hit .380 in Triple A in 2006, and in the final days of the season that year, in a pennant race, Loney tied Gil Hodges for the franchise record in RBI with nine against the Rockies in Coors Field. His grand slam off Ryan Dempster in Game 1 of the 2008 NLDS turned the tide of that series, helping the Dodgers to their first playoff series win in 20 years.
I screamed bloody murder when Loney didn't make the club out of spring training in 2007. "He has nothing left to prove in the minors" was a popular refrain I shared back then, ignoring the fact that he hit a single home run in 261 plate appearances in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, the same league in which he led all of baseball in batting average just one season before. Loney, along with Matt Kemp, came up in June 2007 to stay, and for the most part Loney has been entrenched in the Dodger lineup ever since. Loney has missed a grand total of five games since the beginning of the 2008 season.
The Dodger season went south in September 2007 (they started the month two games out of a playoff spot, but ended the year 82-80), but Loney had a month to remember. Long known as a line drive hitter in the minors, Loney busted out of his shell, hitting .382 with nine homers and 32 RBI in the final 28 games of the season. The future was bright for Loney, who entered 2008 with a career line of .321/.372/.543, and an adjusted OPS of 132. Not bad for a guy not yet 24 years old.
Well, here we are, nearly three years later, and those 15 home runs Loney hit in his partial season (96 games) in 2007 are still his career high. If there's one thing Loney has been over the last three seasons, it's consistent:
| Year | PA | HR | RBI | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS | wOBA | OPS+ | wRC+ |
| 2008 | 651 | 13 | 90 | .289/.338/.434 | .772 | .333 | 103 | 106 |
| 2009 | 651 | 13 | 90 | .281/.357/.399 | .756 | .332 | 104 | 104 |
| 2010 | 552 | 9 | 80 | .275/.335/.403 | .738 | .321 | 102 | 101 |
| thanks to Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs | ||||||||
Don't think I'm not rooting for Loney to get exactly four home runs and 10 RBI in 99 plate appearances the rest of this season, just for the statistical oddity. At this point, with Loney you pretty much know what you're going to get. The question is, is it good enough?
Loney is a slightly above average major league hitter overall, but among first baseman he is far below average. In 2010, for instance, all first basemen in MLB have a cumulative 121 OPS+. There are 20 players in baseball who over the last three seasons have started a total of 250 or more games at first base. Among those players, Loney ranks 19th out of 20, with a 103 OPS+. Only Casey Kotchman (88 OPS+) has been worse, offensively.
Using wOBA from Fangraphs, here are Loney's ranks among qualified first basemen each year:
- 2008: .333 (22nd out of 27)
- 2009: .332 (23rd out of 25)
- 2010: .321 (24th out of 26)
Offensively, it's hard to come to a conclusion other than that Loney is well below average among his peers at first base.
I wanted to believe Loney would turn the corner this season. Even though he slugged .399 last season, he also had a career-high 70 walks. However, it is looking more and more like last season was the outlier in Loney's patience at the plate:
| Year | PA | BB | IBB | UIBB% |
| 2007 | 375 | 28 | 5 | 6.22% |
| 2008 | 651 | 45 | 6 | 6.05% |
| 2009 | 651 | 70 | 10 | 9.36% |
| 2010 | 552 | 44 | 8 | 6.62% |
Joe Torre has often said that he likes James Loney as a hitter, and thinks the power will come, and in fact Loney has batted fourth or fifth in 108 of 134 games this season. Torre has also said that Loney is a productive hitter and that "production is all about RBIs," and after all Loney does lead the club with 80 runs batted in this season. However, while Torre has been involved in nearly 7,000 major league games as a player or manager, it doesn't mean he can't be completely wrong some of the time.
Yes, Loney does have 80 RBI this season, and he has hit well with runners in scoring position (.333/.416/.467 this year and .326/.405/.479 in his career), but that doesn't make him a productive hitter. Runs batted in are largely a function of opportunity, and in fact Loney has batted with 400 runners on base this season, more than anyone in the National League. He also batted with the seventh-most runners on base in the NL in 2009, and the fifth-most in 2008. The bottom line is that Loney gets his RBI because he has more runners to drive in than just about anyone else.
However, there is more to baseball than just hitting. Where Loney shines, at least superficially, is with the glove. I love watching him scoop throws at first base, or start a double play. But even if Loney is great, just how great is he? Is it enough to overcome his offensive deficiencies? Here are Loney's defensive numbers from a variety of sources:
| Year | Plus/Minus | UZR | Rfield | Total Zone |
| 2008 | -1 | -7.7 | -3 | -3 |
| 2009 | +4 | +2.7 | +6 | +7 |
| 2010 | +1 | +1.4 | 0 | n/a |
| thanks to Bill James Online, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs | ||||
Defensively, Loney looks to be above average, but certainly not near the top of the league by any stretch. So what we have in Loney is a well below average hitter for his position who is at or slightly above average defensively. What does that mean in total?
We have a few different sources for and a few permutations of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. Fangraphs is the only one that allows sorting, so the ranking among first basemen will be from Fangraphs. Here are Loney's numbers for the last three seasons:
- 2008: -0.1 Baseball-Reference / 1.0 Baseball Prospectus / 0.7 Fangraphs (21st among MLB 1B)
- 2009: 1.7 / 2.1 / 1.6 (21st)
- 2010: 0.9 / 0.7 / 1.1 (20th)
Another factor to consider with Loney is that, while his offensive production has stayed the same every year, his salary has not. After making $411,000 and $465,000 in 2008 and 2009, respectively, Loney hit arbitration eligibility for the first time this winter, settling with the club for $3.1 million for 2010. He has two more seasons of arbitration eligibility left, and figures to make between $4.5 million and $5 million next season, if not more.
Is Loney worth $4.5-5 million next season? More importantly, are there better options for the money slotted to Loney? This past offseason, these four first basemen signed for contracts within that range:
| 2010 Free Agent First Basemen |
||
| Player | Contract | 2010 WAR |
| Adam LaRoche | 1-year, $6m guaranteed with option | 1.8 |
| Nick Johnson | 1-year, $5.75m guaranteed with option | 0.1 |
| Aubrey Huff | 1-year, $3m | 4.7 |
| Russell Branyan | 1-year, $2m guaranteed with option | 1.5 |
That's fine for 2010, but what about next season? Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, here's a list of available first basemen this winter, with their ages in parentheses:
Lance Berkman (35) - $15MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jorge Cantu (29)
Adam Dunn (31)
Troy Glaus (34)
Eric Hinske (33)
Aubrey Huff (34)
Paul Konerko (35)
Mark Kotsay (35)
Derrek Lee (35)
Melvin Mora (39)
Xavier Nady (32)
Lyle Overbay (34)
Carlos Pena (33)
Fernando Tatis (36)
Mike Sweeney (37)
Ty Wigginton (33)
I have excluded Branyan, LaRoche, and Albert Pujols because their options will likely get picked up, and I excluded Nick Johnson because I don't want a nephew of Larry Bowa giving him a reason to stick around. Looking at that list, the top players (Konerko, Pena, and Dunn) will all get multi-year deals, likely well above what the Dodgers are willing to spend. At a projected payroll of roughly $87 million next year even before filling left field and two or three spots in the rotation, I don't think the Dodgers plan to spend much more on a first baseman than what Loney is projected to make in arbitration. The rest of the list isn't really enticing, either.
Then again, Loney's perceived value in baseball probably exceeds his actual value, making him a prime candidate to trade this offseason. Perhaps if the Dodgers can move Loney for a starting pitcher, they might be more willing to spend on a first baseman.
Perhaps the best move is to bring in a right-handed batter to platoon with Loney at first. Loney is hitting .218/.258/.310 against southpaws this season, and .262/.323/.384 in his career. Perhaps Nady (.301/.372/.456 career against LHP) or Wigginton (.277/.353/.469) is the play here, especially with their ability to fill in at other positions.
Saying Loney has to go is one thing. Finding an actual replacement is another matter altogether. It's highly likely that we are in store for another year of Loney as our first baseman. The Dodgers just have to hope that in 2011, more than in 2010, the core players of the lineup, including Loney, simply have to perform better.
Second image: Doug Pensinger | Getty Images
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Comments
What was all that bluster about Loney
failing at being a good human?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
bluster makes no sense there
hubub?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
Stalker time!
this comment
To be fair
my post will more discredit his ability as a human
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/9/1/1663638/september-1-game-chat#45722780
smoke and mirrors?
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
this is what you do
you pump him full of roids so his head is the size of a beachball and see if he can hit more than 15 homeruns.
Dodger
fans along the 1st base line will just reach out and try to whack that head.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Great post
Just accepting Loney as the first baseman is hard to stomach, with him being arguably the worst hitting starting first baseman in baseball.
Trade him for a SP, use the money saved to acquire outfielder (Werth/Crawford), move Ethier to first base. Start Travyon in CF.
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Superstars don't change positions
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
You kidding?
We have the best Right Fielder in the National League according to the wisdom of idiots : )
Who would trade a cheap pitcher for Loney? Even if you’re going by reputation rather than talent, who has:
-A movable cheap pitcher
-A first baseman worse than Loney
There’s just not that many pitchers making under five million that don’t suck that teams would be willing to trade. Let alone for James Loney.
Why does everyone pine for McDonald? Do you think he didn’t get a fair shake w/the Dodgers? I like the guy, and wouldn’t have traded him for Dotel, but it’s not like he’s a future 1, 2 or 3.
Considering the Dodgers don’t have a number 5….
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually, I recommended precisely that.
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
a form of that comment was going to be my snarky reply to this article.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
My thoughts exactly. He had an opportunity, and didn’t run with it. I am 100% convinced he doesn’t have an out pitch.
SSS warning, but he has a k/9 this year of 9.5, a FIP of under 3 and an XFIP of under 4. He really got one opportunity to start last year, was horrible, thrived out of the bullpen the rest of the year and through injury or what not he just wasnt given a chance this year (no, one start where he actually pitched decently is not a chance, especially considering they carried Monk on the roster all year). I’m not saying hes the savior, but he blows Ely/Monk/random 5th starter out of the water and should have been a big piece of this years and next years team.
by UCLADodger32 on Sep 2, 2010 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Please make this a macro
and re-post anytime the “JMac had his opportunities” argument pops up.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I think Eric’s right that his perceived value outpaces his actual value.
All you need to trade for is a 5th starter so you don’t have to sign one and re-sign Kuroda and Padilla. That should be cheap enough that you can break the bank of an impact outfielder.
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
A respected member of TBLA has agreed with something I posted concerning baseball.
I should probably stop posting now and just lurk from here on out.
:)
Oh no you didn't!!!!!!!!
He is revered far and wide. He is an important man. He knows people.
Some might claim HE is the most interesting man in the world.
Again, who? There’s just not that many teams where even the perception of Loney would be an upgrade.
Didn’t prepare a list of available trade targets, but Eric’s on the right track above.
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Saying Loney has to go is one thing. Finding an actual replacement is another matter altogether.
This is the fact of the matter. With a payroll of $87M and needing at least 2 SP and a LF, the Dodgers will really have
to evaluate how much money they can spend at 1B. I would like to trade him for a SP. Look internally at 1B options.
In addition to 2 SPs and LF, the Dodgers need a first baseman. Eric makes it clear that it’s hard to do worse there. Not sure why people are willing to accept Loney at first base more so than Pods at LF. Neither is acceptable.
by Michael White on Sep 2, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
But is there a Scott Podsednik bobblehead?
I didn’t think so.
QED.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
"Who will be the Autozone "In the Zone" player of the game Sunday Night?
This is one of the poll questions on Sportsnation on ESPN. I just saw it a minute ago. The choices are:
Aubrey Huff
Andre Ethier
Busty Poser
Jim Loney
OT
I just got an email from MLB saying that I can buy the MLB At Bat 2010 App for half price now. Just thought this was funny
I don’t know if that’s a sadder promotion than the parking lot attendants at Dodger Stadium trying to sell “preferred parking” on the day of the game for $35.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Is that true? If yes, how does that work? (I have an idea, but would like the actual facts)
I have only been to DS 1 time.
You drive up. You give the person $15 and then you hear “Can I interest you in preferred parking for $35?” And you would get to park marginally closer than you would for regular parking.
It might make sense if you were bringing people who had trouble walking long distances, but then you still have to navigate all the stairwells unless you park in just the right place.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
The resulting flooding in Denver
was due to the happiness in Jim Tracy’s pants.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Really? How do teams preceive Loney?
Kemp’s looked as a guy playing below his talent, but I think the perception of Loney is that he’s a great defender who can hit for a high BA, with good RBI totals despite the lack of power.
That has some value. Even Casey Kotchman was traded for Mark Teixeria.
I’m heterosexual.
:)
I’m at work and they usually play the Thursday Night game on ESPN radio here. But they are playing HS football tonight.
They are ok
The head coach when they were awesoke is the OC at Auburn.
There is a private school named Springdale Har-Ber that is the best team in the NW part of the state along with
Bentonville.
That team sent 6 guys to D-1 schools including Damion Williams and Mitch Mustain. That didn’t hurt.
I imagine the Bentoville team is a private school? The only reason I would think that is b/c I would imagine that with all of the WalMart execs they would send their kids to the best school possible
Public school
They have a huge school and a great coach. Barry Lunney Sr is the coach. He won a bunch of state titles
in the same classification at Ft Smith Southside in the 90’s and early 00’s. He was also my football coach
my Sophmore year. He is an old school coach. They run the Wing T still.
The Manny Delcarmen Era
Has not started well as he gave up a game-tying homer to Werth
The Phils have had eight guys bat, seven guys reach first, and five of them have scored.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
And it’s goodnight Mr. Delcarmen. Beimel started the inning and was even worse.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions
And five RBI in one inning
for that Chase guy. Nice work by him.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
E: good post. And I’m sure most of the nice drivel (“Oh, how I want James Loney to succeed.”) is for my benefit so I don’t rip you a new one. But I do have a couple of questions:
1. You mention his D. Where does that rank with other NL first basemen? My personal (not backed up by defensive stats) observation is that he’s the smoothest first basemen we’ve had since Wes Parker.
2. That list of available first basemen is scary. Youngest is 29, 9 of them over 33. If we get one of them don’t you think their production will be dropping?
Personally, I don’t think I’d spend much time on figuring out a replacement for Loney until I get replacements for areas I think we have bigger problems. Namely:
1. Catcher
2. Starting pitcher
3. 3rd ouftielder
4. Shortstop (love Raffi, but not at 100 games a year)
5. Starting pitcher
I know I’ll get ripped for being a Loney supporter (and a guy who thinks Kemp gets waaaaaaaaaaaaay too much criticism this year), but that’s my $.02.
And you may want to have someone else start your car tomorrow morning.
Lastly, game starts in 1:15. Fight on!!!!!
by KellyStephen on Sep 2, 2010 6:46 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Loney is middle of the pack defensively among 1B, just above average. Those numbers are in terms of runs against average.
All 3 WAR sources factored in defense as well.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 2, 2010 6:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If you want advanced defense metrics, (and you probably don't, but here it is.)
Total Zone has his defense at 2 runs for his career. UZR has Loney’s career at -4.4 runs. I don’t have his +/ numbers but I assume they say similar things.
You might say that James Loney is a fine defender, and I would agree with you. The problem is that he doesn’t have any sort of noticeable advantage on defense to any other 1B.
He's not just being compared to Belliard.
He’s being compared to every other 1B in the league. Loney is not a better defender than A-Gon, Albert Pujols, Kevin Youkilis, or any other 1B. He’s better than some, he’s worse than others, but he also doesn’t hit like a 1B should.
Being an average defender at SS and hitting average offensively as compared to league is valuable. (Furcal for half of his years in L.A.)
Being an average defender at 1B and hitting average offensively as compared to league is not.
Belliard isn't a first baseman
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
Russ Martin, is a better catcher than Loney is a 1st basemen.
Ditto Furcal.
Starting pitching – I’d agree that filling those holes is more important than replacing Loney.
I just think Loney gets too much credit for hitting .280 and playing everyday.
The contingent of Dodger fans that love Loney has to be the same that loved Juan Pierre.
Same principles are in effect.
just had an interesting conversation with my Dad.
My Dad hardly ever says the word fuck, but he used it several times talking about the McCourts. “I think we’re in for a few years of fucking misery.” and “I thought we were past this fucking bullshit.” are only a few of the choice comments.
Needless to say my Dad, a Dodger fan since they came to LA, is in the “anyone but McCourt” camp.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
I’ve been a McCourt supporter based on a few things:
1. Playoff appearances!
2. Improvements to Mecca!
But hearing that a) his plan coming in was to cut payroll and, more importantly, b) the team is $630 million in debt has turned me off 100%. There is no way they can run the team ( or any business, for that matter) successfully with that debt load. And the fact that they’ve accumulated more debt while ammasssing homes and income means that they are not fit to be owners.
Your dad was right. Fuck the McCourts. Let’s get a real owner in here.
by KellyStephen on Sep 2, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
OT
But speaking of USC, over at Conquest Chronicles they started a game thread at 6:00. 47 minutes later they have two posts, one of them mine.
Wow…is that crickets I hear? C’mon…on TrueBlueLA we’d have 100+ comments by now!
Um…that was supposed to be a quote…
Wow…is that crickets I hear? C’mon…on TrueBlueLA we’d have 100+ comments by now!
not much of a following there
but I put in my $100 bet for USC -21. . . .I hope they dont let me down
by SeanMillerSavior on Sep 2, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions
If I went over there
and posted something, I’m afraid Julio would give me the ole…
Banned
Go Fuck Yourself
Keith, there is room on the bandwagon this year! Bunch of folks jumped off after last year. I’ll help you up here!
It’ll be interesting to see if the Trojan Faithful will continue to represent early in the year. I live in Orange County and you couldn’t walk/drive 12 feet the past few years on a Saturday without running into some SC love.
BTW Kelly
my Dad is a USC fan.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I've always said so
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I cannot give my love to another...
But Thanks for the invite. Besides, I’m still bitter about how USC beat the shit out of Arkansas for 2 years in a row
about 6 or 7 years ago. We were outclassed in all areas of the game.
But you guys were paying players then so…..
:)
I was just giving Kelly a freindly poke.
i don’t know enough about the goings on at USC to speak intelligently about them. I will say this. If I was to
pull for team, and Arkansas wasn’t an option. I would pull for USC. That is not me trying to garner favor
among the board.
Sweet uniforms and sweet cheerleaders, also.
Arkansas pays players too. Just in live chickens and WalMart coupons.
by KellyStephen on Sep 2, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see a lot of comments about the fact that Loney needs to go
But what I don’t see is who is going to replace him. Saying he is one of our major issues is fine. But Blake, Furcal, and Carrol can’t run the ball over to first base on a ground out. Trading him for a #5 is akin to committing defensive suicide.
Loney should be kept for next year, and then move Jerry Sands into 1B.
(That’s part of my general theory that next year is a .500 year anyway.)
People don't think it be like this, but it do.
I wonder
if that might be the teams thinking, if they think he’s so good there.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Loney is the least of our problems...
He’s only 26. No, no and no. More important things to worry about.
Except he will be making a lot of money next year.
Have you ever tried just turning off the TV, sitting down with your children, and hitting them?
D'OH
meant Rockies. Sorry, drinking.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't know what that is, but.....
NOOOOOOOOOO, MY PRECIOUSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions
impart your wisdom on me oh sage of life
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha!
Planned Parenthood FTW.
I had to get my shit together before I had a family. I had a little “habit” before I met my wife.
She cured me of it. Now the straight and narrow for Keith.
yes, they are
glad to hear you got clean
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Good for you
That there corn cob pipe was no example to set for no young’uns.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
USC east laying the wood to USM
MTSU and Minnesota tied at 17 in the 4th.
Utah up 7 at the half vs Pittsburgh.
Me being at work right now is a fucking crime against humanity.
There is no such thing is USC east.
There is on one SC, the one you speak of is the University of South Carolina or game"COCKS"
I get that
You, living on the EC, should know that they call them USC around here too.
I don’t usually refer to them as USC, but some do.
I refer to them as the shitty team from the East that is our permanent SEC East opponent.
It never really bothered me until one of their
draft picks a few years ago (can’t remember who, but he was a corner back) said that he was from the real USC. Mind you, this was when the Trojans were in the middle of their incredible run.
I’ll bet Lou Holtz picks ND for the title game this year. Funniest thing I ever saw on College GameDay was a “Lou Holth for Prethident” sign in the background.
I hate that piece of shit. Mainly because he absolutely owned my Trojans during his tenure.
I don't care for him
as an analyst. But he was a good coach. Winning at South Carolina is not an easy task.
Spurrier was making the point this week that they have averaged 7 wins per year in his 5 years
and that is a record at Carolina.
Keith when refering to the Trojans, I recommend
Southern Cal.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I feel like you guys are talking to my wife right now!
She refers to SC as “the college Matt Leinart went to. He’s so hot.”
Didn't the administration on Figueroa St.
once complain that they didn’t USC referred to as “Southern Cal”? Because it sounds like a campus of lower Berkeley or something? Am I dreaming that? I was going to a little dig there.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Our CEO is a USC grad. When we got bought last year, my first week with my new company I wore a USC polo for a presentation. First thing I said is that I come from the “real USC”. He’s a good guy, and he loved it.
Otherwise, I might be in f’ing Arkansas right now.
Question about defensive sabermetrics
Do those defensive stats take into account the plays that Loney makes that prevent errors from the other fielders? Obviously they take into account the plays that he makes, like his range, which is important, but receiving the ball is just as important, if not more so, for a first baseman.
Loney has some of the best hands and footwork for a first baseman I’ve seen. Just wasn’t sure if that kind of stuff are included in the stats.
i do see
him pick a lot of balls out of the dirt from Furcal.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Michael White earlier had the best idea...
Trading Loney for anything (or just non-tendering him) gets 5mils off the books.
Then you move Ethier to 1b.
Now you got to find a LF & RF.
5 mils can be used in the “Sign Jayson Werth Fund”…and Trayvon/Sands can play the other position.
1st base is amongst the easiest positions to find guys to play.
refresh my memory
didn’t we talk all kinds of shit on Charlie Manuel for putting Ethier in a position HE’S NEVER PLAYED BEFORE?!! And that was for one game, you guys are talking about for a whole season. Sorry, I just don’t see it.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Its 1st base.
Andre Ethier is a professional athlete.
Ethier’s played baseball his whole life. Digging out throws is probably the only thing that he’d need to practice at.
These professional baseball players are pros because they are really really good. Its not like we’re asking him to play catcher.
I see what you mean
But I don’t necessarily agree with it. Andre Ethier is a horrible defender in RF. Some on here have suggested that is
bc he is really a LFer. That is where JP, Manny, Pods, and all of the other terrible OFers play. I will concede that a
position change to the infield might work, but maybe he is just a bad defender. We have no evidence that he would be
bad or good at it. So I’m prepared to remain on the fence. All that talk and I said nothing. Sorry Joey.
Not if his arbitration award is 5+ million.
Which team would
A- Want to give up something of value for Loney
B – Pay his entire salary for 2011
Houston does have the hometown angle to play.
Loney for Chris Johnson would be a great trade…I just dont see the Astros doing it.
I would love that deal. No freakin way they’d do that.
I am willing to send the email and ask, though.
Astros are probably going to commit to Brett Wallace for next year to see what he’s got.
The Cubs are probably the only team that really may take a look at Loney.
I think someone like the Cubs, Astros, Nationals would be some NL teams that have needs for a 1B. They also have
pitchers that would be of value in a trade for a guy like James. This would free up money to sign a 1B of equal value
and allow us to focus the available funds on a LF, maybe catcher, and SP
A cheap alternative
would be to platoon Loney with Lindsey at first base for 2011. We could also platoon Blake and Betemit, who shouldn’t be super expensive. The two out of these four who don’t start could both be used as late inning pinch hitters.
Betemit is probably the best case scenario for 3rd base and he probably wont cost much. There’s just not many left handed hitting 3rd basemen in the league…he’d be a smart signing.
Heard this
There’s just not many left handed hitting 3rd basemen in the league
There’s a guy named Blake DeWitt…….
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Different era...
… but Loney seems like a modern day Wes Parker. There’s something to be said about
consistency, staying healthy, and excellent defense. Parker had 64 HR in 8 years, but he also was part of two World Series teams.
Showing up to work has value.
But if you are inefficient at your job, you’ll be replaced even if you never use sick days or go on vacation.
But I still think 26 is too young to give up on him, and I don’t see many guys on that list as being better, especially long term..
If he were 26 and had a limited amount of ABs, then I’d agree it’d be too soon to give up on him.
But Loney has 2,118 ABs at the MLB level.
I think he has enough experience to what you are going to get with him.
Some of the arguments for keeping Loney were the same used for keeping Cesar Izturis (he’s young, he plays everyday, he plays good defense, he might improve)…but Izturis had about 2,000 mlb ABs also at the time he was dealt…
the Niners D looks amazing
Im just gonna ignore the fact that their first team D is going against San Diego’s second team O
by SeanMillerSavior on Sep 2, 2010 7:29 PM PDT reply actions
Furcal 1-2 with a HR
He better be activated soon. . ..I dont want to see him hurt himself in AAA
by SeanMillerSavior on Sep 2, 2010 7:31 PM PDT reply actions
You too can own this jersey.
<img src="http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[ORG]&set=key[number],value6&set=key[displaysize],value500&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/p5461639_customback.chain]"/>
Hearing Pete Arbogast with his opening soliloquy to the USC football season is hilarious. He’s such a homer.
How do you do?
People seem to be forgetting
that Loney has been a much more productive hitter away from Dodger Stadium
1179 PA, 309/.362/.494, 116 tOPS+
I would be happy to pay $5 mil for that kind of productive w/ plus defense
Rockies fans
must be asking if there are any former Dodgers in the pen to pitch to Helton.
He woke up against us last week.
We need more handlebar moustaches in the Majors.
I guess I am on here by myself now.
Should be interesting conversations to come.
Good luck, Trojan fans
Jon Heyman reporting
Heyman hears that Matt Kemp is seeking a deal with the Dodgers similar to Nick Markakis’ contract. Markakis inked a six-year, $66MM extension with the O’s in January of 2009. In fact, as a center fielder with power, Kemp sees himself as more valuable. However, the soon-to-be 26-year-old knows that he won’t get that kind of deal with the Dodgers.
Via MLBTR.
Even with his slump this year, locking up Kemp for 6 years, and 11 million per year should still be a good deal.
doitdoitdoitdoit
this bad year is a fluke!!
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
When does Kemp become an unrestricted free agent
Kemp becomes a full free agent beginning of 2013 or 2012?
I'd wait till after his 2011 season..
If he bounces back…then maybe ink him to that deal.
If he puts up another .315OBP…let him walk as a free agent.
I thought Markakis wasn’t doing so well then I saw today he has 41 doubles. Not bad..
by hee came hee seop'd he choi'd on Sep 2, 2010 10:18 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That comment is a little funny in the context of this article
James Loney has 35 doubles. Not bad. ;-)
Markakis has a .787 OPS, 114 OPS+ as a right fielder. Not so great either.
His salaries ramp up, so 6/66 similarly structured for Kemp doesn’t seem outlandish either, and maybe could be settled at something less (either number). But it doesn’t seem like Ned’s style to hand out a long, guaranteed contract after an off year, even if buying low might seem prudent.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Comrade Giovanni does not appreciate with your lack of faith in the Dodgers.
by Tripon on Sep 2, 2010 8:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Meowth
that’s right!
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions
big day for the raptors
lemmerman and akins with 2 homer a piece
derek cone makes his dodger debut with ogden with 2 IP 2 H 1 K
a hope of mine
is that if the Dodgers do ever create a network, that they broadcast some of these minor league games. that would be great.
(waits for someone to tell him it’s nice to want things)
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Sep 2, 2010 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, when the Dodgers Fail Like this Year
Loney is one of the reasons you still watch the team.
I agree, he is never going to be an elite 1st baseman, but I think that was one of the reasons why Dewitt was expendable, if you are going to have only a below or slightly above average 1st baseman, you need to have an above average entire infield and a huge slugging outfield. So if Loney stays that means we need: A LF slugger, an above average hitting second baseman, and an above average third baseman. Then we have all four corners in the infield with decent hitters, and produce runs by getting a lot of walks and hits like last year. Of coarse, then we have to fill in the holes in our rotation with two to three quality starters, and were good to make a run at the championship.
Not a good time to be poor. Well, barring all that happening, at least we can like James Loney.
1st base age 26 and under, less then 75 home runs, OB > 350, 500 games
Rk Player HR OBP G From To Age PA 2B RBI BB BA SLG OPS
1 Rafael Palmeiro 73 .360 727 1986 1991 21-26 2948 167 336 233 .302 .462 .822
2 Sean Casey 65 .382 531 1997 2001 22-26 2165 136 326 200 .311 .490 .871
3 Keith Hernandez 63 .383 847 1974 1980 20-26 3342 190 427 400 .299 .454 .837
4 Mike Jorgensen 59 .360 647 1970 1975 21-26 2055 66 235 287 .249 .400 .760
5 Dan Driessen 58 .358 742 1973 1978 21-26 2654 111 346 289 .278 .415 .773
6 James Loney 54 .350 596 2006 2010 22-26 2340 119 345 195 .290 .440 .790
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/2/2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Markakis has been quite ordinary himself
after that solid age 24 season.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Will Bud Selig allow Frank McCourt to appeal if he loses?
At that point, Selig can’t see McCourt as a viable owner anymore.
Selig wouldn’t have a say in the matter.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 2, 2010 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
in the appeal, I mean. He could try to nudge Frank to sell, but in terms of the court case or Frank appealing, that’s a separate matter.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 2, 2010 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Couldn't Selig push for partners
As the trial goes on and if there is an appeal, doesn’t the capitalization and debt issue force Selig to at least say McCourt has to taken on partners.
There used to be a rule in MLB about percentages of cash and debt…will try and look it up
Markakis
Age/OPS+
24/136
25/109
26/113
Kemp
24/125
25/104
Loney
23/134
24/103
25/104
26/102
Who here isn’t rooting for Loney to get just hot enough to move that OPS+ to 105 for 2010?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Loney’s OPS+ for a 1st basemen is awful.
Thats basically the point.
Even if he performs similarly to Kemp/Markakis…they play much less demanding offensive positions.
Markakis is a right fielder
who you kidding.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
1st base is still a more demanding offensive position than RF.
And Kemp plays CF, so he shouldnt even be in the discussion.
The point of the above table
had nothing to do with position, it had to do with the fact that Kemp/Markakis both had an excellent age 24 season and then dropped significantly in the age 25 season.
I just threw in Loney because I found his pattern of 103, 104, 102 interesting or didn’ t you get the point of my comment at the end.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Furthermore Markakis was being mentioned as the comp
for the next Kemp contract. Markakis got that contract based on his age 24 season. So I do think having Markakis and Kemp together is fucking relevant based on the conversation that had taken place in this thread.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Is Baltimore happy with the deal they signed Markakis to given his
production?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
He's still got 4 years after this one to make that deal a good one
I say it’s a good deal until he starts having OPS+s under 100 with bad defense. I like his potential still.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
The Powers That Be have spoken and said that Matt Kemp is the worst baserunner. And so it shall be.
Once they make up their minds, they become like the Turkish guns at Aqaba. They face the sea and can’t be turned round.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting
I can barely remember any stupid Loney plays while Kemp’s blunders seem ingrained in my mind. I guess I misunderstood how Loney’s single off the wall was his fault that Kemp can’t touch the thing called 2nd base.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Loney getting picked off of 3rd, while Kemp took the heat for jogging home on a sure single is one example.
B-Ref has him a -1 for base running above replacement.
Wasn't Loney thrown out at 3rd not picked off?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Exhibit A
Never make the third out at third base. And a special circumstance is charged for doing it when a run is trying to come home.
Exhibit B
Don’t run into an easy to tag between first and second base with bases loaded and one out.
Maybe our animated giffer can spout out these two plays for us. :)
In general
shouldn’t one of the fastest baserunner in the league be a better baserunner then some glue factory 1st baseman? How many 1st baseman have a positive base running above replacement? Just curious. I’m sure Votto is since he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread, and Pujols, but not sure how many others.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Sure, but Kemp’s takes more risks on the bathpaths because he’s faster. That’s my point, to pretend that Loney’s the better baserunner because he’s a plodder is a strawman’s argument.
Maybe I missed the point where anyone said Loney was
a better baserunner then Kemp. My only point in this is that 1st baseman in general are not good baserunners so to add that to the criticism of Loney seems like piling on. As Bob points out below 1st baseman simply are not good base runners.
I did say I don’t remember many of Loney’s gaffes compared to Kemps but to me that has little to do with the value of baserunning. I don’t how the metric is measured but I’d care about 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, scoring on SF, % of caught stealing, breaking up DP with speed, outs on the basepaths not related to caught stealing.
If Kemp is better at Loney in all of these categories then he’s not getting the most out of his speed.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The only first basemen this year who are in positive numbers in Rbaser are Sanchez, Pujols, and Huff. They are at 1.
Rajai Davis leads the majors at 5. Old Friend Juan Pierre is at 4, tied with several others.
by Bob Timmermann on Sep 2, 2010 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
OT
After visiting Purple Row tonight to rubber neck at the carnage, I’ve concluded that their members have excessively long signatures.
Just yesterday wasn't someone telling me how he was doing great for the Cubs?
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Big slump over the last two weeks
changes numbers quickly when you only have Aug 1st forward at bats.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Attention Josie
After 2 weeks of me being awesome and not mailing your Ethier poster, I have now successfully put the wheels in motion and you should be receiving it in a couple of days.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Matt Magill
leads all of the minors. . .AAA, AA, A+, A, in opponents BA AVG against at .194
Keep up the good work
by SeanMillerSavior on Sep 2, 2010 11:07 PM PDT reply actions
That would especially cool if he wasn't pitching
in one of the more friendly home pitching environments in the minor leagues. Which makes what the hitters are doing even more interesting.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
More fun with the Number 6 Org in Baseball!
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2012784518_lueke02.html
The Mariners knew all about Josh Lueke’s 96-mph fastball when they acquired him from the Texas Rangers in the Cliff Lee deal.
But Mariners executives insisted they knew nothing before the July 9 trade about the 25-year-old minor-leaguer facing felony charges in a rape and sodomy case in which he later pleaded no contest to a lesser charge.
However, new information appears to contradict the Mariners’ original version of events. Former Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair said he told general manager Jack Zduriencik about Lueke’s troubles well before the deal.
And Kevin Goldstein’s take:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11907
All of the sordid details are in the link provided above, and it adds to the question of how much can a team put up with in the name of talent. Players with anger issues like Milton Bradley I can understand, even those with some less serious one-time issues like Brett Myers I can handle, but the Mariners deserve every bit of bad public relations they get from having Lueke on the payroll, and the Rangers deserved the same. I’m all for redemption and second chances, and while I’d be against any sort of official ban from baseball for the 25-year-old, I’m equally embarrassed for baseball when teams can’t police these sorts of situations themselves and allow him to pursue a big-league career on their dime.
Suddenly I appreciate Colletti more. Briefly.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Kevin Goldstein on Jerry Sands
john (naples): where does jerry sands power rate on the 20-80 scale? 70+??? is he the top dodger prospect at this point?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s not the top Dodgers prospect for me, I don’t think. Bat only guy, but the bat is certainly real.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=770
Goldstein probably has Dee Gordon as number 1 again.
bloodface (Minneapolis): Kevin, at what point do we start taking Brain Cavazos-Galvez seriously? He is a little old for A ball, but the number’s he’s put up over two seasons in the minors are fairly impressive. He does not walk a lot, but he makes consistent contact and seems to do quite well on the bases. I have not been able to find much of a scouting report on him, but with his continual success, I would think someone would write him up eventually. Your thoughts?
Kevin Goldstein: Like you say, there’s an age issue here with a 23 year old in the Midwest League, but there’s speed and gap power here, and a shot at a bench outfield job down the road.
It will be interesting
to see if the Dodger scouts are better at defining defensive skills then the people BA/BP/Sickels talk to.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
the only thing ive hears from BA
is that midwest league tools rating where they put Sands as the best defensive 1b in that league.
Just spitballing here...
What about platooning Loney and Blake at first, and finding a free agent for 3B?
Ugh… just looked up who will be a free agent at 3B this offseason. Other than Beltre who is probably too expensive there isn’t much.
by CarolinaDodger on Sep 3, 2010 5:26 AM PDT up reply actions
I also think Teahan
would be a decent platoon option for Blake. Just not many left handed 3rd baseman.
Alex Gordon is again doing little with his full time play. If he’s not a slugger maybe he can at least be a decent platoon option at 3rd base. Does not look like his bat is going to play as a corner outfielder. I’d think we should be able to get together with KC for a deal.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Some Baseball HQ updates
as they peruse the hot hitters in the minor leagues. We don’t normally get much attention but our outfielders got some love today:
Kyle Russell (OF, LA)
The streaky Russell has been hot again of late and for the year is putting up solid offensive numbers. Russell started the season on fire in the hitter-friendly CAL (.354 with 16 home runs), but looked to have hit a wall when promoted away from the thin air of the CAL (.192 in June and .211 in July) – but August has was much better (.311) and for the year his numbers look just fine – .300/.385/.578 with 33 doubles, 26 home runs, 11 SB, and 60BB/165K in 450 AB. On the whole Russell’s season has to be considered a smashing success.
Jerry Sands (OF, LAD)
Sands continues to have one of the better breakout seasons of any NL prospect and earned himself a trip to the 2010 Arizona Fall League. Sands always had good power, but nothing like what he’s demonstrated in 2010. On the year, Sands is hitting .302/.398/.592 with 28 doubles, 34 home runs, 18 SB in 20 attempts, and 71BB/121K between Low-A and Double-A
and finally the enigma knows as BCG
Brian Cavazos-Galvez (OF, LA)
The Dodgers Cavazos-Galvez doesn’t get a lot of press, but he’s put together a very nice season for Low-A Great Lakes. On the year the 23-year-old Cavazos-Galvez is hitting .318/.343/.516 with 42 doubles, 15 home runs, 42 SB, and 12BB/59K in 481 AB.
You will of course find more detail about what makes up those numbers during Brandon’s MiLB report but it is still nice to see some of them getting some attention.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/9/3/1666670/dodgers-minor-league-hitting-stats
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Good read Mr. Stephen..
I wouldnt mind if James was our first-baseman, now, and in the future if… we had a 3rd baseman that could mash. We are extremely weak at the corners, and have been for a long time. Kemp and Ethier get alot of blame for their struggles, but its our corner IFers that are dragging us down. In fact look at the whole infield. Furcal can hit, but he hasnt been in the lineup. I love what Carroll, DeWitt, Theriot have done for the team this year, but none of them can hit for extra bases. Its not just Loney that needs to be upgraded, its the entire infield. If anything, Id keep James, and get rid of everybody else. Im sure that all you saber geeks can put together a list of how our whole infield compares with the rest of the league offensively, and while your at it, look up defense too. Loney and Theriot are probably close to average, while Carroll, Beliard, Blake, and DeWitt were probably below. If you cant hit or cant catch, you wont win.. and guess what? We havent. Then we let go of our best hitter for salary relief, which translates to another divorce attorney… Id love to see a 25-30 HR guy at first, but if we are going to look at Loney as one of the causes for this disapointing season, I think we should broaden our horizons and say that everybody else sucks too.
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