September 3rd, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Sep 2, 2010 10:39 PM PDT
Email
PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 10:15 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| SF | LAN | B.Zito vs C.Billingsley | LAN | 56.90% | 59.61% |
Notes: Other NL West teams are toying with the Dodgers playoff chances. Let's see if the Giants can put us out of our misery this weekend. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. B.Zito total batters faced: 26.5
5. Dodgers total runs scored in odd numbered innings: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 3-2 | 51 LAN 8-2 | 101 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 2 LAN 2-1 | 52 LAN 8-1 | 102 SF 9-7 | ||
| 3 LAN 4-3 | 53 LAN 7-5 | 103 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 4 SF 3-2 | 54 SF 7-1 | 104 SF 9-0 | ||
| 5 LAN 3-1 | 55 SF 7-5 | 105 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 6 SF 2-1 | 56 LAN 8-3 | 106 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 7 LAN 1-0 | 57 SF 7-6 | 107 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 8 LAN 4-2 | 58 SF 6-0 | 108 SF 9-8 | ||
| 9 LAN 5-4 | 59 SF 8-3 | 109 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 10 LAN 4-1 | 60 LAN 8-0 | 110 SF 11-3 | ||
| 11 SF 4-3 | 61 SF 8-2 | 111 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 12 LAN 2-0 | 62 LAN 8-4 | 112 SF 10-6 | ||
| 13 SF 3-1 | 63 LAN 9-1 | 113 SF 10-0 | ||
| 14 LAN 5-2 | 64 LAN 9-2 | 114 SF 11-2 | ||
| 15 SF 4-2 | 65 SF 8-4 | 115 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 16 LAN 3-0 | 66 LAN 8-7 | 116 LAN 12-0 | ||
| 17 LAN 5-3 | 67 SF 8-1 | 117 SF 11-5 | ||
| 18 SF 1-0 | 68 LAN 8-5 | 118 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-1 | 69 SF 7-0 | 119 SF 11-1 | ||
| 20 SF 5-3 | 70 LAN 9-3 | 120 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 21 SF 5-4 | 71 LAN 8-6 | 121 SF 12-2 | ||
| 22 LAN 4-0 | 72 SF 8-5 | 122 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 23 SF 4-1 | 73 LAN 9-0 | 123 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 24 SF 2-0 | 74 LAN 9-4 | 124 SF 11-6 | ||
| 25 LAN 6-5 | 75 LAN 10-2 | 125 SF 11-4 | ||
| 26 SF 5-2 | 76 SF 9-3 | 126 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 27 LAN 6-2 | 77 SF 9-2 | 127 SF 10-7 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-0 | 78 LAN 10-1 | 128 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-3 | 79 SF 8-6 | 129 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 30 LAN 6-1 | 80 SF 9-1 | 130 SF 12-3 | ||
| 31 SF 3-0 | 81 SF 8-7 | 131 SF 12-4 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-4 | 82 LAN 10-3 | 132 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 33 SF 5-1 | 83 SF 8-0 | 133 SF 12-1 | ||
| 34 SF 6-3 | 84 SF 9-4 | 134 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 35 SF 6-5 | 85 LAN 9-5 | 135 LAN 13-0 | ||
| 36 LAN 6-0 | 86 SF 9-5 | 136 LAN 14-2 | ||
| 37 SF 6-4 | 87 LAN 9-6 | 137 SF 11-0 | ||
| 38 SF 6-2 | 88 LAN 10-0 | 138 SF 10-9 | ||
| 39 LAN 7-2 | 89 LAN 10-4 | 139 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-1 | 90 SF 9-6 | 140 LAN 12-6 | ||
| 41 SF 4-0 | 91 LAN 11-1 | 141 SF 11-7 | ||
| 42 LAN 7-3 | 92 LAN 11-2 | 142 SF 12-0 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-6 | 93 LAN 9-8 | 143 LAN 14-1 | ||
| 44 SF 6-1 | 94 SF 10-3 | 144 SF 10-8 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-4 | 95 SF 10-2 | 145 LAN 11-8 | ||
| 46 SF 7-2 | 96 SF 10-4 | 146 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 47 LAN 7-0 | 97 LAN 11-3 | 147 SF 13-2 | ||
| 48 SF 5-0 | 98 SF 10-1 | 148 SF 12-6 | ||
| 49 SF 7-4 | 99 SF 10-5 | 149 SF 12-5 | ||
| 50 SF 7-3 | 100 LAN 9-7 | 150 LAN 14-0 |
25 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Current Leaderboard
1. Humma Kavula 219
2. Michael White 102
3. matthewmafa 98
4. MammothDodger 85
5. Xeifrank 72
6. delias man 66
7. keithc13 64
8t. kinbote 55
8t. Phil Gurnee 55
10. fritts 53
11t. Eric Stephen 45
11t. bucknellbruin 45
13. Alex41592 40
14. David Young 39
15. Jesse S. 32
16. Josie Becker 31
17. Boulder Dodger 19
18. mikeinsp 10
19. dsm9412 9
20. Ego Crusher! 8
21. G.Scott 7
22. lakersdodgersyankees4life 6
23. DannyDodger 5
24.. joey joe 3
= Kids Table =
25t. underdog 1
25t. dolger14 1
25t. squirrelmasterz 1
People who don’t know Barry Zito in bold.
All Humma does is win, win, win no matter what.
by Michael White on Sep 3, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Over/Under Questions
10 bonus points if you guess all five correctly.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley number of strikeouts: 5.5
3. Dodgers number of extra base hits: 2.5
4. B.Zito total batters faced: 26.5
5. Dodgers total runs scored in odd numbered innings: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
This should have hit dammit. Making Chad get 5 outs cost me the W
by Michael White on Sep 3, 2010 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions
After reading the Giant Preview I'm changing my pick
this one now takes precedence.
- 62 LAN 8 – 4
OUOUO
Now, now, don't be uincivilized.
You’re PANDAring to the mASSES of Dodger – hating Giant fans who adore Failto Hittheball.
If you never ask, you'll never know.
But where's the integrity in saying you never knew if you never asked?
by victor frankenstein on Sep 5, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
un
I cringe it when I miss those.
/permanently cringing at this point
If you never ask, you'll never know.
But where's the integrity in saying you never knew if you never asked?
by victor frankenstein on Sep 5, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Chad's Ks were the only over and that no one guessed that
and that LA Taco has the closest score and I have the second closest.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
#8 LAN 4-2, UOUUU
Nobody guessed the final score correctly, but Ale41592 did manage to get the over/under questions all correct, even the question of death (QOD). The 5-3-1 points go to, LA Taco (#1), David Young (#17), Michael White (#22)
Daily Scoreboard:
10 – Alex41592
5 – LA Taco
3 – David Young
1 – Michael White
Alex moves up a couple spots in the standings and LA Taco gets on the menu.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
