FanPost

September 21st - Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 9:45 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SD LAN C.Richard vs C.Billingsley LAN 54.13% 55.45%

Notes: What do the Dodgers and summer have in common? Get your game score and over/under guesses in. The over/under jackpot is up to 45 points.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Dodgers total number of hits: 7.5
4. C.Richard wins plus T.Bell saves: 0.5
5. A.Gonzalez total bases plus M.Kemp strikeouts: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1 51 LAN 7-6 101 LAN 11-1
2 LAN 3-2 52 SD 6-0 102 LAN 11-3
3 LAN 4-3 53 SD 7-5 103 SD 9-7
4 SD 2-1 54 LAN 8-1 104 SD 11-3
5 LAN 1-0 55 LAN 8-2 105 SD 11-1
6 SD 3-2 56 SD 8-2 106 SD 11-2
7 LAN 3-1 57 SD 8-3 107 LAN 10-5
8 LAN 4-2 58 SD 8-1 108 SD 9-8
9 SD 3-1 59 LAN 7-5 109 SD 10-6
10 SD 4-3 60 LAN 8-3 110 SD 11-4
11 SD 1-0 61 SD 7-0 111 LAN 11-0
12 LAN 2-0 62 SD 7-6 112 LAN 10-6
13 LAN 4-1 63 LAN 8-0 113 SD 10-7
14 SD 4-2 64 LAN 8-4 114 SD 11-5
15 LAN 5-4 65 LAN 9-1 115 LAN 12-1
16 SD 2-0 66 SD 8-4 116 LAN 12-3
17 LAN 3-0 67 LAN 8-7 117 LAN 11-4
18 LAN 5-2 68 LAN 8-5 118 SD 12-2
19 SD 4-1 69 SD 9-2 119 SD 11-0
20 LAN 5-3 70 LAN 9-2 120 SD 12-1
21 SD 5-4 71 SD 8-5 121 SD 12-4
22 LAN 4-0 72 LAN 9-3 122 SD 12-3
23 SD 5-3 73 SD 8-0 123 LAN 10-7
24 LAN 5-1 74 SD 8-6 124 LAN 12-2
25 SD 5-2 75 SD 9-3 125 SD 11-6
26 SD 3-0 76 SD 9-4 126 LAN 12-0
27 LAN 6-5 77 SD 9-1 127 LAN 11-5
28 SD 5-1 78 LAN 9-0 128 SD 10-8
29 SD 4-0 79 LAN 9-4 129 LAN 10-8
30 LAN 6-1 80 LAN 8-6 130 LAN 10-9
31 LAN 6-2 81 LAN 10-2 131 LAN 12-4
32 LAN 6-3 82 SD 8-7 132 LAN 13-1
33 LAN 5-0 83 SD 10-3 133 SD 12-0
34 SD 6-3 84 SD 10-2 134 LAN 12-5
35 SD 6-2 85 LAN 10-1 135 SD 13-2
36 SD 6-4 86 LAN 10-3 136 LAN 13-2
37 SD 6-5 87 SD 9-0 137 SD 11-7
38 LAN 6-4 88 LAN 10-0 138 SD 13-4
39 LAN 6-0 89 SD 9-6 139 SD 12-5
40 SD 6-1 90 SD 10-1 140 LAN 13-3
41 SD 5-0 91 SD 9-5 141 LAN 11-7
42 LAN 7-1 92 SD 10-4 142 SD 10-9
43 LAN 7-2 93 LAN 9-5 143 SD 12-7
44 LAN 7-3 94 LAN 10-4 144 SD 13-1
45 SD 7-2 95 SD 10-5 145 LAN 11-6
46 SD 7-3 96 LAN 9-6 146 LAN 11-8
47 SD 7-4 97 SD 10-0 147 SD 13-3
48 LAN 7-4 98 LAN 9-7 148 LAN 13-4
49 SD 7-1 99 LAN 9-8 149 LAN 13-0
50 LAN 7-0 100 LAN 11-2 150 SD 13-0

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.