FanPost

September 22nd, Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Padres and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Tuesday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SD LAN T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly LAN 54.95% 57.99%

Notes: Pretty good agreement between the simulator and Vegas on Wednesday's game. Looks like the simulator may need an input for lack of heart. Get your game score and over/under guesses in. The over/under jackpot is up to a whopping 50 points and matthewmafa has narrowed Humma Kavula's lead down to 49 points.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 7.5
2. Dodgers bullpen number of pitches: 38.5
3. Dodgers total bases: 13.5
4. A.Gonzalez RBIs plus strikeouts: 1.5
5. T.Lilly HRs allowed: 0.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 51 SD 7-2 101 LAN 10-0
2 LAN 4-3 52 SD 6-1 102 LAN 11-4
3 LAN 2-1 53 SD 4-0 103 SD 11-3
4 LAN 5-4 54 SD 8-3 104 LAN 10-6
5 SD 3-2 55 LAN 8-4 105 SD 10-6
6 SD 4-3 56 LAN 8-5 106 LAN 11-1
7 LAN 4-2 57 LAN 8-1 107 SD 10-1
8 LAN 3-1 58 LAN 8-7 108 SD 10-7
9 LAN 5-2 59 SD 5-0 109 SD 9-0
10 SD 2-1 60 LAN 7-0 110 LAN 10-7
11 LAN 5-3 61 SD 8-4 111 SD 11-4
12 SD 4-2 62 SD 8-5 112 SD 11-2
13 LAN 4-1 63 SD 7-1 113 LAN 11-5
14 SD 5-4 64 LAN 8-6 114 LAN 12-2
15 LAN 6-5 65 SD 8-2 115 LAN 10-9
16 SD 3-1 66 LAN 9-2 116 SD 11-5
17 SD 5-3 67 LAN 9-3 117 LAN 12-3
18 LAN 6-3 68 LAN 9-4 118 SD 10-8
19 LAN 5-1 69 SD 8-6 119 LAN 12-1
20 SD 5-2 70 LAN 9-1 120 SD 11-6
21 LAN 1-0 71 SD 8-7 121 LAN 11-0
22 LAN 6-4 72 LAN 8-0 122 LAN 11-6
23 SD 4-1 73 SD 9-4 123 LAN 12-4
24 LAN 6-2 74 SD 6-0 124 SD 11-1
25 LAN 2-0 75 SD 9-3 125 LAN 10-8
26 SD 6-3 76 SD 8-1 126 SD 10-9
27 LAN 3-0 77 LAN 9-5 127 SD 12-3
28 SD 6-5 78 LAN 10-2 128 SD 12-5
29 SD 6-4 79 SD 9-5 129 SD 12-4
30 LAN 6-1 80 SD 9-2 130 SD 10-0
31 LAN 7-6 81 LAN 10-3 131 LAN 12-6
32 LAN 7-2 82 SD 9-6 132 LAN 13-3
33 LAN 7-3 83 LAN 10-1 133 SD 11-7
34 LAN 4-0 84 LAN 10-4 134 SD 12-2
35 LAN 7-4 85 SD 7-0 135 LAN 12-5
36 SD 5-1 86 LAN 9-0 136 LAN 11-7
37 SD 6-2 87 LAN 9-6 137 SD 12-1
38 SD 2-0 88 LAN 9-8 138 SD 12-6
39 SD 1-0 89 SD 9-1 139 SD 11-8
40 LAN 7-1 90 LAN 9-7 140 LAN 13-2
41 LAN 5-0 91 LAN 10-5 141 LAN 13-1
42 SD 3-0 92 SD 10-4 142 SD 12-7
43 LAN 7-5 93 SD 9-7 143 LAN 12-0
44 SD 7-4 94 LAN 11-2 144 SD 13-2
45 SD 7-3 95 SD 10-3 145 SD 11-0
46 SD 7-5 96 SD 10-5 146 SD 13-3
47 LAN 8-2 97 SD 9-8 147 LAN 13-4
48 LAN 8-3 98 LAN 11-3 148 LAN 11-8
49 LAN 6-0 99 SD 10-2 149 LAN 12-7
50 SD 7-6 100 SD 8-0 150 LAN 14-2

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.