September 4th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Sep 3, 2010 11:53 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 11:30 PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob |
| SF | LAN | M.Cain vs T.Lilly | LAN | 55.56% | 50.96% |
Notes: Other NL West teams are toying with the Dodgers playoff chances. Let's see if the Giants can put us out of our misery this weekend. Get your game score and over/under guesses in.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Dodgers bullpen batters faced: 11.5
4. M.Cain hits allowed plus walks: 7.5
5. Giants starting catcher total bases minus Dodgers starting catcher total bases: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 LAN 3-2 | 51 LAN 7-1 | 101 SF 9-7 | ||
| 2 LAN 4-3 | 52 SF 8-2 | 102 LAN 9-7 | ||
| 3 LAN 2-1 | 53 SF 8-3 | 103 SF 10-0 | ||
| 4 SF 3-2 | 54 LAN 7-5 | 104 SF 11-4 | ||
| 5 SF 2-1 | 55 SF 7-6 | 105 LAN 10-5 | ||
| 6 LAN 5-4 | 56 SF 8-1 | 106 SF 9-8 | ||
| 7 SF 4-3 | 57 SF 8-4 | 107 LAN 11-4 | ||
| 8 SF 3-1 | 58 LAN 6-0 | 108 LAN 11-3 | ||
| 9 LAN 4-2 | 59 LAN 8-2 | 109 SF 10-6 | ||
| 10 SF 4-2 | 60 SF 7-0 | 110 SF 10-7 | ||
| 11 LAN 3-1 | 61 SF 8-5 | 111 SF 11-5 | ||
| 12 SF 4-1 | 62 LAN 8-3 | 112 LAN 10-0 | ||
| 13 LAN 1-0 | 63 LAN 8-7 | 113 SF 12-2 | ||
| 14 LAN 4-1 | 64 LAN 8-4 | 114 SF 12-3 | ||
| 15 SF 5-4 | 65 LAN 8-5 | 115 SF 12-1 | ||
| 16 LAN 5-3 | 66 SF 9-3 | 116 LAN 11-1 | ||
| 17 SF 5-3 | 67 SF 9-2 | 117 LAN 10-6 | ||
| 18 SF 5-2 | 68 SF 9-1 | 118 LAN 10-7 | ||
| 19 LAN 5-2 | 69 LAN 8-1 | 119 LAN 12-3 | ||
| 20 LAN 6-5 | 70 SF 8-0 | 120 LAN 10-9 | ||
| 21 SF 2-0 | 71 SF 8-6 | 121 SF 11-0 | ||
| 22 SF 1-0 | 72 SF 9-4 | 122 SF 11-6 | ||
| 23 LAN 2-0 | 73 LAN 7-0 | 123 SF 10-8 | ||
| 24 SF 3-0 | 74 LAN 9-3 | 124 LAN 11-5 | ||
| 25 SF 5-1 | 75 LAN 8-6 | 125 SF 12-4 | ||
| 26 SF 6-3 | 76 SF 8-7 | 126 SF 12-5 | ||
| 27 LAN 3-0 | 77 LAN 9-2 | 127 LAN 12-2 | ||
| 28 LAN 5-1 | 78 LAN 9-4 | 128 LAN 12-5 | ||
| 29 LAN 6-3 | 79 SF 9-5 | 129 SF 13-2 | ||
| 30 SF 4-0 | 80 SF 10-3 | 130 LAN 11-7 | ||
| 31 SF 6-2 | 81 LAN 9-1 | 131 LAN 12-1 | ||
| 32 LAN 6-4 | 82 SF 10-2 | 132 LAN 12-4 | ||
| 33 SF 6-4 | 83 SF 10-1 | 133 LAN 10-8 | ||
| 34 LAN 6-2 | 84 SF 9-0 | 134 LAN 11-0 | ||
| 35 SF 6-1 | 85 SF 9-6 | 135 SF 12-0 | ||
| 36 SF 6-5 | 86 LAN 9-5 | 136 LAN 11-6 | ||
| 37 LAN 6-1 | 87 LAN 8-0 | 137 SF 13-1 | ||
| 38 SF 5-0 | 88 SF 10-4 | 138 SF 13-3 | ||
| 39 SF 7-3 | 89 LAN 9-8 | 139 SF 11-7 | ||
| 40 LAN 7-6 | 90 LAN 9-6 | 140 LAN 13-3 | ||
| 41 LAN 4-0 | 91 LAN 10-2 | 141 LAN 13-2 | ||
| 42 SF 7-2 | 92 LAN 10-3 | 142 SF 12-6 | ||
| 43 LAN 7-4 | 93 SF 10-5 | 143 SF 10-9 | ||
| 44 SF 7-1 | 94 SF 11-2 | 144 SF 13-4 | ||
| 45 LAN 7-2 | 95 LAN 10-4 | 145 LAN 13-4 | ||
| 46 LAN 7-3 | 96 LAN 10-1 | 146 SF 14-1 | ||
| 47 SF 7-4 | 97 SF 11-3 | 147 SF 13-5 | ||
| 48 SF 6-0 | 98 LAN 11-2 | 148 SF 12-7 | ||
| 49 LAN 5-0 | 99 SF 11-1 | 149 LAN 13-1 | ||
| 50 SF 7-5 | 100 LAN 9-0 | 150 LAN 14-3 |
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Over/Under Questions
10 bonus points if you guess all five over/under questions correctly.
1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. T.Lilly total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Dodgers bullpen batters faced: 11.5
4. M.Cain hits allowed plus walks: 7.5
5. Giants starting catcher total bases minus Dodgers starting catcher total bases: 1.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Dude I hate to be the bearer of bad news
but the ship is already underwater, Rose is floatin’ on whatever she floats on, and Jack is freezing his nuts off in the water. All that’s left is for her to pry his frozen hand off of hers and dump his ass to the bottom of the sea.
The Omar Moreno of this blog
I don't know if you have done this already
But have you tried running some of these games with and without Manny and seeing what the difference was?
When you add them up, our chances of us making the playoffs might jump from 0.009 to 0.011.
#15 SF 5-4, OOUOO
Small crowd tonight. Nobody got the score or the over/under correct. Proximity points go to Alex41592(#17), Humma Kavula (#26). matthewmafa(#38).
Daily Scoreboard
5 – Alex41592
3 – Humma Kavula
1 – matthewmafa
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