FanPost

September 5th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 11:15 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 SF LAN J.Sanchez vs H.Kuroda LAN 57.08% 57.75%

 

Notes:  A golden opportunity missed last night for the Dodgers to get our hopes up once again.  Vegas and the Simulator in good agreement as to the Dodgers chances of winning on Sunday.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. H.Kuroda total pitches thrown: 102.5
3. Number of extra base hits for the Dodgers: 2.5
4. J.Sanchez number of walks: 2.5
5. Dodgers runs minus Giants runs: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 7-0   101 SF 10-5
2 LAN 2-1   52 LAN 8-2   102 SF 9-8
3 LAN 4-3   53 SF 7-5   103 LAN 9-7
4 SF 3-2   54 SF 7-6   104 LAN 11-4
5 SF 2-1   55 LAN 8-3   105 LAN 11-0
6 LAN 3-1   56 SF 7-1   106 SF 9-0
7 LAN 5-4   57 LAN 7-5   107 LAN 12-2
8 SF 4-3   58 SF 6-0   108 LAN 12-1
9 LAN 4-2   59 LAN 8-0   109 LAN 10-6
10 LAN 1-0   60 LAN 8-4   110 LAN 12-3
11 SF 3-1   61 SF 8-2   111 SF 11-2
12 LAN 4-1   62 SF 8-4   112 LAN 11-5
13 SF 4-2   63 LAN 9-3   113 SF 10-7
14 LAN 5-2   64 LAN 9-2   114 SF 11-4
15 LAN 5-3   65 SF 8-3   115 SF 11-3
16 LAN 2-0   66 LAN 9-1   116 LAN 10-7
17 SF 5-4   67 SF 8-1   117 LAN 10-9
18 SF 1-0   68 LAN 8-7   118 SF 11-1
19 LAN 3-0   69 SF 8-5   119 SF 10-6
20 LAN 5-1   70 LAN 8-5   120 LAN 12-4
21 SF 5-3   71 LAN 8-6   121 SF 11-5
22 LAN 6-5   72 LAN 9-0   122 LAN 13-1
23 SF 2-0   73 SF 7-0   123 LAN 13-2
24 SF 4-1   74 LAN 10-2   124 LAN 12-5
25 SF 5-2   75 SF 9-3   125 LAN 12-0
26 LAN 4-0   76 LAN 9-4   126 LAN 11-6
27 LAN 6-2   77 SF 8-6   127 LAN 10-8
28 LAN 6-3   78 SF 8-7   128 SF 10-0
29 LAN 6-1   79 LAN 10-1   129 SF 10-9
30 LAN 5-0   80 SF 9-4   130 SF 11-6
31 SF 5-1   81 SF 9-1   131 SF 12-3
32 SF 3-0   82 SF 9-5   132 SF 11-0
33 LAN 6-4   83 LAN 9-5   133 SF 10-8
34 SF 6-3   84 SF 9-2   134 SF 12-2
35 SF 6-5   85 SF 8-0   135 SF 11-7
36 SF 6-4   86 LAN 10-3   136 LAN 13-3
37 SF 6-2   87 LAN 10-4   137 LAN 11-7
38 LAN 6-0   88 LAN 9-8   138 SF 12-4
39 SF 4-0   89 SF 10-2   139 LAN 14-2
40 LAN 7-2   90 LAN 10-0   140 SF 12-1
41 LAN 7-6   91 LAN 11-2   141 LAN 13-0
42 LAN 7-1   92 LAN 11-1   142 LAN 11-8
43 LAN 7-3   93 SF 10-3   143 LAN 13-4
44 SF 6-1   94 SF 10-4   144 SF 12-6
45 SF 5-0   95 SF 9-6   145 SF 13-3
46 LAN 7-4   96 LAN 11-3   146 LAN 14-4
47 SF 7-3   97 LAN 9-6   147 SF 13-2
48 SF 7-2   98 LAN 10-5   148 LAN 12-6
49 LAN 8-1   99 SF 9-7   149 SF 12-5
50 SF 7-4   100 SF 10-1   150 SF 13-1
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