FanPost

Labor Day, Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 9:15 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN SD V.Padilla vs M.Latos SD 60.63% 65.01%

Notes: This is likely the day that the Padres long losing streak ends as Padilla is making his first start since coming off of the DL. Get your guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. V.Padilla total batters faced: 25.5
3. Dodgers bullpen earned runs allowed: 1.5
4. M.Latos total strikeouts: 6.5
5. Padres runs minus Dodgers runs: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 2-1 51 LAN 7-2 101 SD 9-6
2 SD 3-2 52 LAN 6-0 102 SD 11-4
3 SD 1-0 53 SD 8-3 103 LAN 10-3
4 LAN 2-1 54 SD 9-1 104 SD 12-3
5 SD 3-1 55 SD 7-6 105 LAN 10-4
6 SD 2-0 56 SD 9-0 106 SD 9-8
7 SD 4-3 57 LAN 7-4 107 SD 13-1
8 SD 3-0 58 LAN 7-1 108 LAN 10-5
9 LAN 3-2 59 SD 9-2 109 SD 9-7
10 LAN 1-0 60 SD 7-5 110 SD 13-0
11 SD 4-1 61 LAN 7-0 111 LAN 10-0
12 SD 4-2 62 LAN 7-5 112 SD 13-2
13 SD 4-0 63 SD 10-1 113 SD 14-1
14 LAN 3-1 64 SD 10-0 114 SD 12-4
15 LAN 4-3 65 SD 9-3 115 LAN 9-7
16 LAN 2-0 66 SD 8-4 116 LAN 11-1
17 SD 5-1 67 LAN 8-1 117 LAN 11-2
18 SD 5-0 68 LAN 8-3 118 LAN 11-3
19 LAN 4-2 69 LAN 8-2 119 SD 10-6
20 SD 5-2 70 SD 10-2 120 SD 10-7
21 SD 5-4 71 LAN 7-6 121 LAN 9-8
22 LAN 4-1 72 SD 8-5 122 SD 14-0
23 SD 5-3 73 SD 10-3 123 SD 11-5
24 LAN 3-0 74 LAN 8-4 124 SD 12-5
25 SD 6-1 75 SD 9-4 125 LAN 12-3
26 SD 6-0 76 LAN 8-5 126 LAN 11-4
27 SD 6-2 77 SD 11-1 127 LAN 11-5
28 LAN 5-3 78 LAN 9-2 128 SD 13-4
29 LAN 5-2 79 LAN 9-3 129 SD 10-8
30 LAN 5-4 80 LAN 8-0 130 SD 11-6
31 SD 6-3 81 SD 8-7 131 SD 10-9
32 LAN 4-0 82 SD 11-0 132 LAN 11-0
33 LAN 5-1 83 LAN 8-6 133 SD 14-3
34 SD 7-1 84 SD 8-6 134 LAN 10-6
35 SD 6-5 85 LAN 9-1 135 SD 13-5
36 SD 7-0 86 SD 11-2 136 SD 14-2
37 SD 7-2 87 SD 11-3 137 LAN 12-1
38 SD 6-4 88 SD 10-4 138 LAN 12-2
39 LAN 6-2 89 SD 9-5 139 SD 13-3
40 LAN 6-3 90 LAN 9-4 140 LAN 10-8
41 SD 8-1 91 LAN 9-0 141 LAN 10-7
42 SD 7-3 92 SD 12-0 142 LAN 10-9
43 LAN 6-1 93 SD 12-1 143 LAN 12-4
44 LAN 6-4 94 LAN 8-7 144 LAN 13-2
45 LAN 5-0 95 LAN 10-2 145 SD 15-1
46 SD 8-0 96 SD 12-2 146 LAN 11-6
47 LAN 6-5 97 LAN 10-1 147 LAN 11-8
48 SD 8-2 98 LAN 9-5 148 LAN 12-5
49 SD 7-4 99 SD 10-5 149 SD 16-2
50 LAN 7-3 100 LAN 9-6 150 SD 11-7

This is a fan-written post that is in no way affiliated with or related to any of the authors or editors of True Blue LA. The opinions reflected in this post do not necessarily reflect those of True Blue LA, its authors or editors.